Detroit Pistons Trade Deadlines Moves: Wait

Count me among those of you who are in agony during every Pistons game this year. Its hard to believe that it was only last year that OUR team was bullying the bottom-feeders, instead of them bullying us. Or that WE were challenging the 1st place Celtics.

In the 2008 Playoffs, the Lakers were not the second best team. The Pistons were. (Not the Cavs, either. The Pistons beat them 3-1 in the regular season.)

This year, the Pistons are barely over .500, actually less than .500 with their current roster.

Fortunately for the Pistons, the NBA is not JUST about having a good roster, coaching, and prospects.  Its also about money. Lots and lots of money.

The Pistons, as a basketball team, have talent. And that's about it. As an organization, however, they have two expiring contracts giving them a total of 22 million dollars in the next off season.

Salary cap space can allow a team to do one of two things: trade up talent-wise with teams that are trying to get rid of contracts (see: Kwame Brown-Pau Gasol) or sign free agents.

The following issues are why the Pistons will go the free agency route.

Long Term

Joe Dumars is looking long-term. The Allen Iverson-Chauncey Billups trade was made for two reasons: short term and long term. The short term plan failed. Utterly.

Dumars took what he could for Chauncey, because in the salary-cap era it is too costly to keep two point guards. Chauncey was owed $60 million over the next five seasons, and was hindering Rodney Stuckey's progress.

So Dumars decided it would be better to spend his money on another position. He is looking for a reasonable, long term contract, not a short term difference maker. This is why Amar'e Stoudemire is not coming to Detroit. (http://www.nba.com/pistons/news/truebluepistons.html)

Dumars will not trade away all of his cap space for a player who will not be with the team for long. With the best shot in the league at signing Carlos Boozer for years, why would Dumars go after Stoudemire, whose contract expires in 2010?

Big Men

Dumars is looking for big men. Why wouldn't he be? He's got Rodney Stuckey, Rip Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince all available for several years, with Arron Afflalo able to back up at the two and three.

And, beyond that, the production of the Pistons' big men, other than Antonio McDyess, has declined precipitously. Just looking at the PER rankings, you can see that the power positions have been hardest on the Pistons (http://www.82games.com/0809/0809DET5.HTM).

But really, all you've got to do is watch them. Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace have gotten old, and the young Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell have halted and even reversed the progress they made last year. Don't even talk to me about Kwame.

Interior defense, shot blocking, and post scoring have all been down. McDyess is the only reason rebounding has not suffered more.

With Stuckey looking to be the foundation of the Detroit Pistons and solid perimeter pieces surrounding him, Dumars will certainly be looking to shore up his front court.

So, why won't Dumars just bring in a solid big man through trade? Besides the obvious two word answer (Carlos Boozer), the biggest reason is that big men are coveted, and they are not given away easily.

Trade Pieces

Here's the other side of the coin. Dumars has relatively few trade pieces. Looking at the roster, you see relatively few players who have more of an upside to other teams than they do to the Pistons.

Rodney Stuckey, the type of player the Pistons are looking for, is untouchable. And he is a point guard that many still don't feel is ready. Any deal involving a trade for a player of Stuckey's caliber is going to require Stuckey to be involved.

Without Stuckey, a trade would involve a gutting of the Pistons' roster. Lets look at the players:

A trade of Rip Hamilton is going to require finding a shooting guard/volume shooter REAL fast. Tayshaun has been invaluable for his defense on everyone from LeBron James to Paul Pierce to Chauncey Billups.

Which leaves Rasheed Wallace and spare parts. Yes, he has an expiring contract and he's not a bad player, but he is certainly not a difference maker.

The Downside

How far into the playoffs would the Pistons get if they were to make a pretty great trade: Rasheed Wallace, Amir Johnson, and a few picks for Amar'e Stoudemire?

By pairing Amar'e with McDyess, the Pistons would instantly become a great rebounding team. Points in the paint would also increase with a greater offensive big man threat.

Kwame Brown could conceivably start up front with Stoudemire, providing passable, although below average interior defense (which is especially important to the Pistons, given Allen Iverson's frequent inability to stay in front of his man).

Unfortunately, offensive balance would be even further off-kilter with another dominant personality demanding shots. And Michael Curry would still be coach.

So the Pistons go how far in the 2008 Playoffs? Without Rasheed's defense, I can't imagine that they would get by Cleveland, much less Boston.  That still leaves them getting knocked out in the second round at best.

Dumars would be left with about $7 million to play with over the summer. And Amar'e would be free to leave after only one year.

So how are the Pistons going to improve from a mediocre has-been to a Finals competitor with $7 million? And don't say coaching change. (Although that might help.)

So, put it all together:

1) a young big man, ideally able to play some interior defense;

2) someone willing to stay longer than a year or two and become a building block of the team;

3) without trading away Rodney Stuckey or too many important parts of the team.

You thought it was hard for Dumars to pull off a trade for just any old superstar over the summer? Try adding these up. And then realize that he doesn't HAVE to do anything this time.

This time, all he has to do is wait for a few months. The likelihood of improving the roster well enough to escape the second round is too small. Especially, with free agents available over the summer (I still see Carlos Boozer as an ideal fit, but that's just me.)

If the Pistons are going to make a trade, its going to be trading away an expiring contract for a young building block. See any of those available? See an inavailability of expiring contracts?

Sorry Pistons fans, its not happening. And, starting this summer, we will all be happy that it hasn't.