My Top 20 Starting MLB Pitchers for 2009

We begin to wrap up our preseason rankings by looking at the starting pitchers. It’s a tough list to do, partly because of the drastic difference between pitching in the NL vs. pitching in the AL.

You also have the question of whether pitchers who had big-time breakout performances can duplicate that success. How about those who struggled regaining their form? 

It’s a tough list to put together but let’s take a look at how I ranked them:

1. Johan Santana—New York Mets
2. Tim Lincecum—San Francisco Giants
3. Brandon Webb—Arizona Diamondbacks
4. C.C. Sabathia—New York Yankees
5. Roy Halladay—Toronto Blue Jays
6. Jake Peavy—San Diego Padres
7. Cole Hamels—Philadelphia Phillies
8. Dan Haren—Arizona Diamondbacks
9. Roy Oswalt—Houston Astros
10. John Lackey—Los Angeles Angels
11. Josh Beckett—Boston Red Sox
12. Ervin Santana—Los Angeles Angels
13. Cliff Lee—Cleveland Indians
14. Felix Hernandez—Seattle Mariners
15. Francisco Liriano—Minnesota Twins
16. Carlos Zambrano—Chicago Cubs
17. Chad Billingsley—Los Angeles Dodgers
18. James Shields—Tampa Bay Rays
19. Daisuke Matsuzaka—Boston Red Sox
20. Scott Kazmir—Tampa Bay Rays

Notes:

• Billingsley vs. Shields is an extremely tough call to make, which was why I analyzed it in detail (you can view the comparison by clicking here).  Basically, the main decision comes down to taking a pitcher who calls the NL West home vs. one in the AL East.  That’s how close these two are.
• I’m sure some people want to displace Santana from sitting atop this list, given his decrease in K’s (though he still had over 200), but I just can’t do it.  He went 8-0 with a 2.17 ERA after the All-Star Break.  If the Mets' bullpen had been any good, he could have won at least 6 or 7 more games over the course of the season.  If that had happened, there would be no debate.
• Sabathia scares me this season, heading back to the AL.  I know he’s been successful in the past, but prior to last season, would you have preferred Webb or Sabathia?  It really would have been close, wouldn’t it?
• I previously did a comparison between Oswalt and Hernandez (click here to read).
• Hamels brings a lot of questions to the mound with him heading into 2009, though it really is tough for me to challenge him at this point.  He’s improved every season since making his debut in 2006 and winning the World Series MVP didn’t do anything to hurt his stock.  There is an obvious risk for a regression, thanks to his .270 BABIP, but he should still produce as a Top 10 option.
• I know that Santana and Lee were among the best pitchers in baseball last season so it may be surprising to see them come in outside the Top 10 here.  Honestly, it’s just impossible for me to believe that they are going to be able to repeat those performances—especially Lee (his 1.37 BB/9 is likely to increase).
• Beckett struggled last season, yet still posted a WHIP of 1.19.  In fact, all his peripherals were very similar to his 2007 season, though his ERA was 4.03.  It would be shocking not to see him significantly improving on that number—even in the AL East.
• Zambrano has gone six consecutive seasons posting an ERA under 4.  That alone is enough to get him placed into these rankings.  I know that there’s concern regarding an injury, but can’t you say that about almost anyone on this list?  To read more about him, check out the Quick Hit I wrote by clicking here.
• Has Liriano fully recovered from Tommy John surgery?  We’ll find out soon enough, but he appeared to be close in August (4-0, 1.23 ERA).  I know he fell off again at the end of the season. It’s unlikely that he’ll be the same pitcher who set the baseball world on fire in 2006, but he’s still a pitcher I’d love to have on my team.
• Want some justification for Peavy’s ranking?  Check out the Quick Hit I wrote by clicking here.
• I know people want to point to Matsuzaka and say that luck was the only reason that he had success.  Yes, it was part of it, with a .267 BABIP. But, I also don’t believe in the BB/9 of 5.05 that he posted, which certainly would help to even things out (his WHIP was the same as it was in ‘07 when he posted a BABIP of .306).  He is a strong strikeout artist and seemingly has a chance to win every time that he steps on the mound. He’s a pitcher worth considering.

So, there you have my Top 20.  Who do you think is missing?  Who is being under-ranked?  Over-ranked?

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