Stevenson Vs Sanchez: 'Daddy' Has 'Nightmare'

Remember Mario Lopez?

Since his second place finish on 'Dancing with the Stars", Mario Lopez has fortunately gone back to obscurity, emerging only in "Saved By the Bell" re-runs.

The UFC equivalent of Lopez, is likely Diego 'Nightmare' Sanchez.  During his run on The Ultimate Fighter, he dazzled us with his slick moves.  When he won, he was seen as a potential star.

However, despite some great success in the early part of his career, everything ended abruptly.  Just as Saved by the Bell was destined to end, so was Diego's undefeated streak.

At UFC 69, Diego put his 17-0 record on the line against Josh Koscheck.  Against Koscheck, though, Diego had little to offer. Flashy submission and striking skills had been enough to this point in Sanchez's career, but against Koscheck, this was negated by the better boxing fundamentals of Koscheck.

Koscheck was able to out-strike Sanchez throughout the bout.  Furthermore, it seemed like Diego knew he would be unable to get through Koscheck's strength and wrestling skills in order to take the fight to the ground.

In his next fight against Jon Fitch, Sanchez went up against similar obstacles, and ultimately lost a split-decision. It seemed that big wrestlers with good striking would have a decided advantage over Sanchez.

And for a fighter who was seen as a title contender, this was a big blow. How was he going to ever contend for a title if he couldn't get through the likes of Koscheck, Fitch, and GSP?

A drop to lightweight was definitely a good idea. Sanchez was never a very large welterweight, usually weighing in at little more than 177lbs in the Octagon.

At lightweight, Sanchez for once will not be at a size disadvantage. Furthermore, at 5'10, he'll be relatively tall for a lightweight, and should have a reach advantage. Perhaps just as importantly, he won't have to fight Fitch, Koscheck, Alves, or GSP at 155.

Joe Stevenson has had somewhat different problems than Sanchez.

Stevenson is a short, at 5'7, but is very strong, and isn't going to be heavily out-sized by anyone at 155. He's been able to use his own grappling skills to control the majority of his fights, and also owns his own set of heavy hands.

However, despite his grappling prowess, he's managed to lose his most recent fights in his own area of expertise. Despite putting up a good fight against lightweight phenom BJ Penn, in the end, he made enough mistakes, and surrendered due to a rear naked choke.

He succumbed to the same exact submission against Kenny Florian.

In fact, Joe Stevenson has been mounted at some point in each of his last three fights. This is in stark contrast to Sanchez, who is extremely difficult to submit.

With two very recent losses to high-profile fighters, it almost seems like Stevenson has been used by the UFC to showcase other fighters. BJ's demolition of Stevenson at the time seemed to show how far superior BJ was to everyone else in the division.

Florian's dominant victory over Stevenson solidified Florian's spot as the number one lightweight contender.

At this point, Stevenson has a lot to do to prove that he is nothing more than someone else's highlight reel. A win over a submission specialist like Diego Sanchez would do a lot for Stevenson, and would help kill the notion that he tends to choke on the biggest stages.

So now, lets break down the fight.

While the fight remains on the feet, Sanchez will have a reach advantage, and should also have a skills advantage there as well.

Both fighters are grappling experts, however I'd still give the edge to Sanchez. Sanchez is able to survive on the ground against some of the best grapplers in the world, and has not been submitted in MMA competition.

While Joe Stevenson also possesses significant ground skills, he was only able to beat Gleison Tibau due to a lapse on the part of Tibau. Against Sanchez, he won't be able to rely on such mistakes, and if he gives up an advantageous position against Sanchez, he may be in real trouble.

If Stevenson does have any tangible advantages in this fight, they will come in the area of fitness. Stevenson is a strong lightweight, and cuts a lot of weight to get down to the 155lb limit. He might have a strength advantage over Sanchez.

Furthermore, Sanchez is making the weight cut to 155lbs for the first time. This drop in weight is often difficult for many fighters, and may cause Sanchez to be more sluggish than usual. If the fight goes a full three rounds, endurance may become a factor for Sanchez.

However, aside from these fitness issues, Sanchez should be a heavy favorite. Look for Mario Lopez.. er.. i mean Diego Sanchez to take advantage of Stevenson's mistakes to earn the submission within two rounds.