Silva vs. Sonnen II: What Can We Expect from the Rematch?

When Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen first met at UFC 117, Sonnen shocked the world by administering a severe whooping on Silva for four-and-a-half-rounds. All Sonnen had to do was ride out another two minutes. But in a moment of uncanny déjà vu, Sonnen would succumb to a submission—an unfortunate bit of history that has plagued his career.

At UFC 148, he’ll get a second chance.

The strategy is simple for both parties: Silva wants the fight to look completely different. Sonnen wants it to be exactly the same, at least the first four-and-a-half-rounds.

Here’s how it’s going to play out.

Sonnen is going to look to establish the takedown threat early by blasting his double leg on Silva in the opening minutes of the first round. From there he’ll want to punish Silva. The idea is to insert a little nugget of hesitation into Silva’s brain, forcing him to think about the takedown instead of allowing him to fall into his devastating stand-up attack.

Sonnen’s advantage in this fight is his ability to dictate where it takes place. This is central to his strategy, and his best weapon.

Silva won’t be able to defend all, or even most of Sonnen’s takedown attempts, but he must defend some of them. And he must make Sonnen pay for failed attempts by exploding on him.

Sonnen proved in their first fight that he’s not afraid to charge forward with strikes. He even got the better of most of the exchanges. But Silva is an elite striker, Sonnen is not. Just because he had Silva’s number last time, it does not mean he’ll have it again.

Anderson has lots of weapons. The key for Chael is to keep Silva guessing strike or takedown.

When he does land those takedowns, Sonnen has to remain just busy enough to avoid stand-ups by the referee. He’s a master at that. Even if he’s not really landing, he’s constantly throwing punches.

That puts him at risk for a submission though—which is Anderson’s key to surviving the bottom position. Now, this being MMA and all, the guy on the bottom is not going to win a decision. But staying busy with attempts will put Silva in a position to lock on a submission, get a sweep or even land some strikes.

Never forget, when Silva had Travis Lutter in a triangle, he was also bashing Lutter in the head with some nasty elbows. Silva only requires a little room to do a lot of damage. It’s unlikely that he’ll be able to overcome the smothering top control of Sonnen and score a sweep, but if he can, there is really no one in the sport you’d rather not have on top of you than Anderson Silva.

Silva’s advantage is that he’s a devastating finisher, whereas Sonnen usually goes to decisions. That means that while Chael needs all 25 minutes to win, Silva needs only a few seconds. All it takes is one knee, or a good shot to the chin and Silva will end the fight.

On the feet, Anderson will need to establish some distance. He’ll also need to pick his kicks wisely. To a wrestler of Sonnen’s ability, a kick sets off an automatic shoot instinct and usually results in a takedown. But if Silva plays it smart and is able to avoid some takedowns, he should own the stand-up. Five rounds is a long time to avoid the lethal striking of Anderson Silva.

And in Sonnen’s case, with eight submission losses to his record, it’s also a long time to play the ground game.

Silva may lack the BJJ credentials of the sport’s top grapplers, but he is a legitimate black belt who has proven quite dangerous on the ground.

Chael came within two minutes of dethroning the greatest fighter in the world the last time out. That was his chance. The stars were aligned for him that night at UFC 117. This time, they won’t be.

At UFC 148 Silva will prove, again, why he’s the best the sport has to offer.

Sonnen won’t go down without a fight. He’ll make a war out of it. He’s going to strike. He’s going to take Silva down and beat him up. He’s going to entertain. But at some point in the fight, he’s going to get clipped, and he’s going to go down.

Chael Sonnen had his shot two years ago. He fought a nearly perfect fight for 23 minutes. He still came up short. Don’t expect it to go that long this time.