AFC South Time Machine: Will the Colts' Grigson & Pagano Be There in Five Years?

Using the AFC South Time Machine, Inspector Spacetime and his trusty sidekick Reggie have returned with news from the future about the Indianapolis Colts.

All week, I've been looking at what each front office/coaching staff has to accomplish over the next five years in order to keep its job. Expectations and standards are different in every city. Obviously, the short answer is "win," but there's more to it than that.

Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano have a tough act to follow. The franchise is coming off a dominant stretch, and fans won't be satisfied with mediocrity.

Here's what they have to do to continue working for the Colts five years from now. Please note that I'm not even going to discuss the possibility of Andrew Luck not working out. That goes without saying. If Luck is not a success, neither Grigson nor Pagano have any hope of long-term employment in Indy.

1. Pagano Must Fix the Defense

Jim Irsay is giving Pagano a free pass this year, as he should. But looking beyond 2012, the Colts simply have to develop a top-flight defense or Pagano has no value to the organization.

He has no experience at all as a head coach, and while it's possible he could become the kind of organizational leader Tony Dungy was, it's unlikely. His utility is likely to be limited to building a top-flight defensive unit.

When Jim Mora coached the Colts, they quickly developed into an offensive force, but it was Mora's inability to install a credible defense that cost him his job. He tried to back Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator after a disastrous 2001 season.

No matter how well the Colts do on offense, Pagano won't keep his job if the defense doesn't round into form.

2. The Colts Must Make the Playoffs Three Times in Five Years

With the talent Indianapolis has a quarterback, there's no reason they can't be a competitive team in 2013. Beyond that, however, they have to show that they will win consistently.

The Jim Mora Colts won a division title in his second year and then went back to the playoffs before bottoming out in 2001. That's two playoff appearances in four years, and that cost Jim Mora his job.

If the Colts fail to make the playoffs by 2014, fan patience with Pagano and Grigson will be gone. If the team isn't clearly poised for a nice run of playoff appearances despite what should be serious talent on offense, there's no way the front office survives intact.

3. Pagano and Grigson Must See Eye to Eye

The Colts shocked everyone by loading up on offense in the 2012 draft. While this was unquestionably the right course of action, it was a marked departure from the way Pagano spoke in the weeks leading up to the draft.

Grigson is building the Colts the right way. He's loading up with a dynamic passing offense as the first piece of the puzzle. Offense is more stable than defense, and passing offense is vastly more important to winning that running offense.

Pagano will need to adjust his old-school mentality to embrace modern football the way his GM has. If he can stop worrying and love the bomb, there's a great chance for a synergistic relationship to develop in Indianapolis.

If Pagano can't accept the way the Colts must be built to succeed and there's tension about the design of the team, the relationship won't last, and either coach or GM will have to go.