2012 NBA Mock Draft: Why ESPN Draft Guru Chad Ford Has It All Wrong
With little more than 24 hours before the 2012 NBA draft, ESPN draft analyst Chad Ford has released his latest mock draft, complete with player breakdowns and possible trade scenarios.
His first few projected picks are solid, although the second and fourth picks may have different complexions if the Charlotte Bobcats trade the second pick.
But as his mock draft proceeds, things get a little dicey, and he misses the mark on a bunch of picks.
Let's go through his first-round projections and examine where he makes several wrong turns.
1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky
Ford is right: No argument here, Davis is the Andrew Luck of the NBA draft.
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas
Ford is right: Robinson is physically ready to impact the league. But as previously mentioned, Charlotte may trade the pick.
The Bobcats also need a small forward more than they do a post player.
3. Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal, SG, Florida
Ford is right: Beal makes perfect sense, considering that Washington is set in the paint and at the point.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky
Ford is right: Another possible trade scenario, as Cleveland is interested in trading up to the second pick in order to get Bradley Beal.
5. Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina
Ford is right: Barnes is arguably the best small forward in this draft class. If he's still available, the Kings will snag him.
6. Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State
Ford is right: Lillard seems locked in here at six, as he's been closely linked to the Blazers, according to Ryan Christopher DeVault of Yahoo! Sports.
7. Golden State Warriors: Andre Drummond, C, Connecticut
Ford is wrong: While Golden State does need size, they'd be better off taking a known commodity like Dion Waiters or even Terrence Ross at the shooting-guard position.
Drummond is a project, and I see him falling to No. 9, with Detroit.
Also, if Harrison Barnes happens to be available at No. 7, Golden State will definitely grab him over anyone else, including Drummond.
8. Toronto Raptors: Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse
Ford is wrong: I think Austin Rivers and Jeremy Lamb, who both have more size, are more enticing options for Toronto.
As athletic and talented as Waiters is, Rivers and Lamb have better tools, especially the outside-shooting consistency to accompany slashing to the basket.
9. Detroit Pistons: John Henson, PF, North Carolina
Ford is wrong: Drummond's riskiness will allow him to fall this far, but Detroit won't let him go any further. They need someone with size and athleticism, and Drummond is an absolute specimen in both areas.
He's instant defense and rebounding and can run the floor as good as any post player.
10. New Orleans Hornets: Austin Rivers, PG/SG, Duke
Ford is wrong: New Orleans will re-sign Eric Gordon and won't go after another combo guard like Rivers. Also, Rivers might not even be around at this point, so the Hornets will have to look elsewhere.
A big man like North Carolina's John Henson or Tyler Zeller would help Davis out in the paint.
That way, New Orleans would have a proven star at guard (Gordon) and two rising stars holding down the paint.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina
Ford is right: If Zeller is still available, which is more than likely, the Blazers will take him because they know what they're getting.
12. Houston Rockets: TBD
Houston just traded up to get this pick from Milwaukee as part of its stockpile for a Dwight Howard blockbuster, so I'm reserving judgement of Ford and all mocks until the trade does/doesn't happen.
Candidates at No. 12, regardless of team: Meyers Leonard, John Henson.
13. Phoenix Suns: Jeremy Lamb, SG, Connecticut
Ford is wrong: Lamb probably won't be available at this point, so if Phoenix is set on getting a shooting guard, its best bet is Washington standout Terrence Ross.
Ross has plenty of spring in his step, and he's emerged as an excellent shooter. His stock has been rising lately, and there's a great chance he'll sneak into the lottery here at No. 13.
14. Milwaukee Bucks: Terrence Ross, SG, Washington
Ford is right: Ross has been climbing up the charts recently, but No. 14 should really be his ceiling.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: Perry Jones III, SF/PF, Baylor
Ford is right: Elton Brand is aging and may be on his way out of town, while Spencer Hawes and Lou Williams are both unrestricted free agents.
Jones is a risk/reward steal.
16: Houston Rockets: Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's
Ford is right: Ford called Harkless "a younger Trevor Ariza," and I agree. In fact, I would add that he's more athletic than Ariza was at his age.
However, Houston won't be picking here if they trade for Howard.
17. Dallas Mavericks: Terrence Jones, PF, Kentucky
Ford is right: If Jones is still on the board at this point, it's a great pick for Dallas to strengthen its frontcourt and give it some pop.
18. Houston Rockets: Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi
Another Rockets pick that will likely end up in Orlando's hands. Ford's judgement is not applicable.
19. Orlando Magic: Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
Ford is wrong: Ford was on the right track sliding Sullinger down this far, but he needs to go a bit further.
All the people who say "don't worry, Sullinger is a basketball player," are absolutely right: He's just an un-athletic "basketball player" with underwhelming size and an unnerving back problem.
I see him sliding to Atlanta or Cleveland at No. 23 or 24.
20. Denver Nuggets: Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina
Ford is right: Marshall will land mile-high and fill the void left by Andre Miller.
21. Boston Celtics: Royce White, SF, Iowa
Ford is right: White will be an excellent, versatile forward that Boston can groom to replace the production of Pierce, Allen and Garnett.
22. Boston Celtics: Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure
Ford is right: Ford's on the money here—as long as Nicholson's still on the table.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Tony Wroten, PG, Washington
Ford is wrong: In his explanation of this pick, Ford says the Hawks need to add depth behind Teague at the point.
That might be true, but Wroten isn't the man for the job.
He's not the kind of guard who will be able to come off the bench and threaten the opposition with scoring and facilitating. Right now, he can't contribute with shooting.
Atlanta will catch a plummeting Sullinger to replace some of the beef they're losing in free agency.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers: Fab Melo, C, Syracuse
Ford is right: Cleveland needs a true center, and Melo has true-center size and shot-blocking ability.
Plus, he'll turn into a pretty good pick-and-roll finisher because he loves to set screens.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky
Ford is wrong: Memphis would be wise to take Teague here, but I highly doubt that he'll still be on the board.
If Orlando makes a deal with Houston, Teague will get picked up by the Magic at No. 18 or 19. The Magic need point guard play too much too let him slip past them.
Memphis will probably end up with Evan Fournier, Draymond Green or Jeff Taylor.
26. Indiana Pacers: Draymond Green, SF, Michigan State
Ford is right: I could definitely see Indiana picking up a utility forward like Green here.
Ford's instincts are good on this one.
27. Miami Heat: Jeff Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt
Ford is wrong: It's not that Taylor isn't a good fit here; it's just that the Heat will look for a center with size.
That means the two players who are on Miami's radar are Fab Melo (if he's not already snatched up by the Cavs) and Vanderbilt's Festus Ezeli (the more probable selection).
Indiana almost upset the Heat because of their size, and Kevin Garnett pushed them to seven because of the Heat's lack of depth in the paint.
Ezeli will improve both of these.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Evan Fournier, SG, France
Ford is right: The French forward would be a nice role player on Scott Brooks' 2012-13 squad, adding some depth at forward.
29. Chicago Bulls: Will Barton, SG, Memphis
Ford is right: Barton is a dynamic wing who can help alleviate the constant playmaking pressure Derrick Rose faces.
30. Golden State Warriors: Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor
Ford is right: Ford cites Golden State's selection of Miller as a worthwhile risk because his potential is so high, and I can't disagree.
