2012 NBA Mock Draft: Updated Pick-by-Pick Analysis of Round 1
The NBA draft is finally upon us. On Thursday night, 60 NBA prospects will hear their name called before they are handed a brand new hat to wear.
This year's crop of talent is especially deep. It has everything a draft class needs. The No. 1 pick has superstar potential, a handful of others aren't far behind and several risky prospects have murky, but potentially bright, futures.
Let's see which direction each NBA front office will go as we map out this year's first round.
1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)
Davis' defensive instincts and incredible length (7'5'' wingspan) will set him apart in the NBA. He oozes potential on offense because of his advanced ball-handling, consistent face-up game and the incessant need to improve.
Davis will be an NBA star for 10-plus years.
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson, PF (Kansas)
Robinson will be a consistent double-double threat in the NBA, but Charlotte's acquisition of Ben Gordon on Tuesday night could preempt a deal with the Cavaliers.
With Washington reportedly increasing their efforts to trade their No. 3 pick, a Charlotte-Cleveland deal may never happen. In that case, look for Michael Jordan to scoop up one of this year's safest picks.
Robinson's athleticism and tenacity will be a welcome addition to Charlotte's mediocre frontcourt.
3. Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal, SG (Florida)
This pick could be for a different team on Thursday night, but for now it's Washington on the clock. Bradley Beal is a dream scenario. His smooth stroke will pair well with John Wall's attacking instincts.
The Wizards will take Beal and have one of the NBA's most exciting backcourts.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF (Kentucky)
The Cavaliers will "settle" for Kidd-Gilchrist here. He fits the Scottie Pippen mold with his winning attitude, off-the-chart intangibles and competitive nature on the defensive end.
Kidd-Gilchrist never backs down from a challenge. His open-floor ability will complement Kyrie Irving's speed nicely. If he improves his shot and ball-handling, he has star potential.
5. Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes, SF (North Carolina)
Barnes has an excellent perimeter shot, but his potential is uncertain. He struggles to create his own shot and needs a dynamic point guard to really succeed.
Sacramento needs his character, and he will excel in their up-tempo style. Barnes' stock fell after his sophomore season at North Carolina, but he has all of the necessary tools to be an NBA star.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (via New Jersey Nets): Damian Lillard (Weber State)
Lillard's attack-oriented game will benefit the Trail Blazers' offense. The only point guard on their current roster is Nolan Smith and he isn't going to cut it. Lillard has college experience and would be an immediate upgrade.
Portland could move their second first-round pick (No. 11), but Lillard makes too much sense here. SI.com's Seth Davis describes Lillard like this.
"He's the most unselfish scoring point guard I have ever seen. He's a great kid -- a great kid. He played more like a two in college, but he played on a team where if he didn't score 24 points, they wouldn't have won a game. Who was he supposed to pass to? He has a little bit of a chip on his shoulder, like he's out to prove people wrong.
"
Unlike his stay at Weber State, Lillard will not have to do everything in Rip City. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the NBA's best power forwards and more young assets could be had on draft day.
Lillard fills the Blazers biggest need. He will have a solid NBA career.
7. Golden State Warriors: Andre Drummond, C (UConn)
Golden State's pick is one of this year's more intriguing selections. The Warriors could flip this pick for an elite wing player, but, according to Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, Luol Deng isn't the answer.
Instead, the Warriors keep the pick. I don't see them reaching for a small forward like Perry Jones III or Terrence Jones. Andre Drummond will be their pick.
Drummond is an elite athlete with a mature body for his age (draft's second-youngest player). His athleticism is off the charts, and he could eventually become the best player from this class.
Golden State takes him, allows him to sit behind Andrew Bogut and watches him develop slowly. People can overlook Drummond all they want, but he played in the Big East at 17 years old. That fact can't be overstated.
8. Toronto Raptors: Jeremy Lamb, SG (UConn)
DeMar DeRozan isn't the answer for the Raptor backcourt. Lamb has a feathery shooting touch and solid athleticism. His ability to score in bunches will be an asset to an anemic Raptor rotation.
9. Detroit Pistons: John Henson, PF (North Carolina)
This seems like a no-brainer. Henson is the best power forward remaining on the board. His defense-first mindset will complement Greg Monroe's offense.
Detroit find the second half of their dominant interior duo. Henson's offense is still developing, but the Pistons have themselves a very solid player here. If he can get his offense to match his defense, he could be a star.
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota Timberwolves): Dion Waiters, SG (Syracuse)
Waiters is NBA-ready in terms of stature and ability. With the additions of Waiters and Davis, the Hornets could be onto something. If they can re-sign Eric Gordon, they are looking at a very quick turnaround.
Waiters' ability to drive into the teeth of a defense will translate flawlessly to the NBA.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Meyers Leonard, C (Illinois)
Aldridge doesn't need to play center, but Portland can't move him without a replacement. Leonard is a scary athlete and a legitimate seven-footer. He's a work in progress on both ends of the floor, but the ceiling is very high.
12. Houston Rockets (via Milwaukee Bucks): Tyler Zeller, C (North Carolina)
The Bucks flipped their No. 12 pick, Shaun Livingston, Jon Brockman and Jon Leuer to Houston in exchange for the No. 14 pick and Samuel Dalembert on Wednesday, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports. This pick is ideally heading to Orlando for Dwight Howard, but for now let's pretend it's Houston's time on the clock.
Houston goes the safe route here. Zeller isn't going to be a star, but he's got the traits of a consistent role player.
He works hard and does many things well. He may not stand out in any category, but Zeller's ability to run the floor will make him a valuable asset.
The Rockets don't find themselves a game-changer, but Zeller will give them solid production from day one.
13. Phoenix Suns: Kendall Marshall, PG (North Carolina)
Kendall Marshall is the ideal replacement for Steve Nash, but his value doesn't fit being picked this high. Phoenix's glaring hole in the backcourt overrides that, though.
Marshall is incredibly savvy, sees the court well and always knows where to go next, but he isn't always athletic enough to get there. He struggles against quick guards and doesn't look for his own shot.
The Suns desperately need a point guard, but Marshall could struggle here. He needs capable scorers around him, and Phoenix doesn't have many.
He reminds me a lot of Andre Miller. If he reaches that point, this is a solid pickup.
14. Milwaukee Bucks (via Houston Rockets): Perry Jones III, SF/PF (Baylor)
Jones III would give Milwaukee an impact talent in its depleted frontcourt.
Washington guard Terrence Ross would be a safer pick, but Jones III has a tantalizing skill set. He handles the ball like a guard, but his 6'10'' frame gives him leverage down low.
He didn't always show enough urgency in his two years at Baylor, but Jones III has a very high ceiling. If he plays with more physicality, the Bucks have found their star forward.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: Austin Rivers, SG (Duke)
There are reports that the 76ers are considering Jared Sullinger here, but I think they pass on his back problems. Rivers has too much upside to pass up on, and Philadelphia lacks a star-caliber player.
Rivers is very convinced of his game, but others aren't. He's a high-volume shooter who has to have the ball in his hands to impact a game.
A wicked crossover and dangerous fadeaway jumper give Rivers an interesting offensive repertoire, but his upside is tough to predict.
Expect Philadelphia to take Rivers with the first post-lottery selection. He will provide insurance in their backcourt immediately.
16. Houston Rockets (via New York Knicks): Jared Sullinger, PF (Ohio State)
Sullinger's back issues just barely push him out of the lottery, but this is a suitable value. This situation will suit his questionable endurance because he can learn behind veteran Luis Scola. He won't have to play starter's minutes.
The former Buckeye uses his stocky frame to carve out space down low. His 6'9'' frame makes some doubtful about his ability to get off shots down low, but he understands how to score.
If Sullinger's back holds up, Houston winds up with the steal of the draft.
17. Dallas Mavericks: Terrence Jones, SF/PF (Kentucky)
Jones gives Dallas a much-needed boost in the athleticism department. His 7'2'' wingspan gives him the length to play and defend multiple positions. If Jones keeps his head on straight, he has a very high ceiling.
18. Houston Rockets (per Minnesota Timberwolves via Utah Jazz): Terrence Ross, SG (Washington)
Minnesota sent this pick to Houston in exchange for Chase Budinger (and the draft rights to Lior Eliyahu) on Tuesday night.
At this point, Ross is too good to pass up. He's 6'6'', athletic and a prolific shooter. He will provide instant offense for one lucky team and could develop into a 20-point scorer on a nightly basis.
Houston makes a luxury pick here and enjoys the spoils.
19. Orlando Magic: Arnett Moultrie, PF/C (Mississippi State)
This pick has to be a big man, and Moultrie is the best interior player left on the board. He's a rangy southpaw with a dangerous low-post repertoire. When he wants to play, he plays well.
Moultrie still flies under-the-radar, but he will make the Magic happy.
20. Denver Nuggets: Quincy Miller, SF (Baylor)
Miller has tremendous upside on the offensive end. There isn't a shot he doesn't like, and there isn't one he can't make.
The Nuggets have discussed a deal with the Golden State Warriors involving Wilson Chandler and the Warriors' No. 7 pick, but Miller is the choice if they stay put.
He will provide immediate depth on the perimeter and an added scoring punch off the Denver bench.
21. Boston Celtics: Moe Harkless, SF (St. John's)
Boston should be advised to take Andrew Nicholson here, but they'll opt for Moe Harkless' raw game instead.
Harkless is an outstanding athlete with no jumper. He will be an electric player in the open floor, but his place in an NBA half-court offense is tough to determine. He has a lot to work on, but the potential is there.
Boston would give Harkless a chance to learn under Paul Pierce. That will only benefit his career arc.
22. Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers): Fab Melo, C (Syracuse)
Melo is the pick based on need not talent. He's a capable defender, but he's a liability on offense.
Boston needs a center in the worst way. Even if Kevin Garnett does return, he isn't suited to play center. Melo would, at the very least, eat up space and bang bodies down low.
The Celtics will regret passing on Royce White and Andrew Nicholson. To me, Melo has "D-League" written all over him.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Royce White, SF/PF (Iowa State)
White is a ball-handling point forward. That's not something you hear every day. His off-court struggles knock him down the board a bit, but the Iowa State product could be a productive NBA player.
He's a stat-sheet stuffer with a solid all-around game. If he can find a position, he will have a successful career.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Los Angeles Lakers): Andrew Nicholson, PF (St. Bonaventure)
Nicholson will have a career path somewhere between David West and Brandon Bass. He's a blue-collar player with a knockdown mid-range jumper.
He doesn't come from a major program, but Nicholson has major game. He isn't afraid to work for his points and Cavalier fans will love his energy.
Tristan Thompson didn't have a promising rookie season. Don't be surprised if Nicholson jumps him on the depth chart.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Marquis Teague, PG (Kentucky)
Mike Conley Jr. is the only capable point guard on Memphis' roster, but even he's questionable until he stops turning the ball over.
Teague is a work in progress, but he's a great athlete. If he improves his decision-making, he will be a solid NBA point man.
The Pacers take Wroten Jr. on potential alone. He's a 6'6'' point guard with a penchant for brilliant passes. He's also known for questionable character, selfish play and erratic shooting.
He's a risk, but at No. 26 he's a risk worth taking. If he pans out, Wroten Jr. could be an All Star.
27. Miami Heat: Festus Ezeli, C (Vanderbilt)
The Heat simply take the biggest body available. Ezeli averaged double digits for the Commodores last season. He's experienced, physical and athletic for his size.
Miami's only flaw lies at center. Ezeli will get a chance to remedy that next season.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Evan Fournier, SG/SF (France)
This is an insurance pick for Sam Presti and the Thunder. Fournier isn't ready to play right now, but he will be by the end of next season. If the Thunder can't re-sign James Harden, Fournier will be waiting in the wings.
He isn't a great shooter, but Fournier's length gives him versatility and excellent above-the-rim ability. He could be a solid rotation player.
29. Chicago Bulls: Will Barton, SG (Memphis)
The Bulls could take John Jenkins here, but Kyle Korver's presence negates that. Barton is the more well-rounded player, and he fills a need.
Barton's mid-range game is deadly accurate, and he has room to grow. He's wiry thin, but that doesn't stop him from driving the ball to the basket.
Chicago needs a lot of help in the backcourt. Barton isn't a star, but he has considerable upside.
30. Golden State Warriors (via San Antonio Spurs): Jeffery Taylor, SF (Vanderbilt)
Golden State doesn't get the elite wing they really need, but Taylor is a solid player. He's a shutdown perimeter defender, a capable outside shooter and an experienced leader.
He will fit right into the Warriors' up-tempo attack.
