Buffalo Bills: Stat Projections for the Team's Most Vital Players in 2012

Instead of speculating on the types of years we could see from the most critical Buffalo Bills based solely on gut feeling, let's use math, past production and a sprinkle of speculation to generate more astute stat projections. 

Due to what has been characterized as an impressive offseason for the Bills, in Buffalo, a football-crazed city starved to call a playoff-caliber team its own, expectations in 2012 have been dramatically heightened. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick 

16-game average based on 29 games as Bills starter: 335 completions, 557 attempts, 60.1% completion percentage, 3,769 yards, 25.9 TD, 20.9 INT

Fitzpatrick's attempts jumped from 441 in 13 games in 2010 to a whopping 569 in 2011. It's true Chan Gailey loves calling pass plays, but part of the reason why there was such a considerable spike in attempts for Fitz was due to the fact that the Bills were frequently playing from behind, especially late last season. 

Because Fred Jackson is as reliable as any back in the league, coupled with the emergence on C.J. Spiller down the stretch last year, it'd be surprising if Fitzpatrick reaches the 16-game projection of 557 attempts, which averages out to a shade above 34 tosses per contest.

One would have to imagine his offseason work with quarterback coach David Lee will contribute to better accuracy, but it's hard to predict much higher than the 62 percent completion percentage he managed in 2011.

It's also difficult to imagine Fitzpatrick tossing 30 touchdowns, especially with a somewhat unproven receiving contingent.

He had a handful of bad interceptions last season, but, in all fairness, many caromed off receivers' hands into the hands of defenders, too.    

Playing as a hybrid, gun-slinging game manager, Fitzpatrick's stats will look like this when the 2012 regular season is in the books:

Final stat projection: 330 completions, 520 attempts, 3,800 yards, 24 TD, 17 INT

Fred Jackson 

16-game averages based on last 42 games with Bills: 239 carries, 1,113.5 yards, 4.65 yards per carry, 4.9 TD, 44 catches, 391 receiving yards 

Jackson had a legitimate shot to be named to the All-Pro team in 2012, but a leg injury curtailed his chances to truly have a breakout season.

He's as versatile as they come despite not being the fastest, most agile or most fleet-footed, and he has an unique ability to evade defenders at the line or scrimmage or in the open field.

Gailey will likely lean on the one-two punch of his running game, and Jackson will receive the lion's share of the carries this year. 

He was on pace for 272 carries last season, but there's no way the Bills' coaching staff allows him to take that much of a beating at 31 years old in 2012. Much of his production will hinge on the health of team's offense line; if the starters stay on the field as cohesive unit, Gailey will find ways to creatively incorporate Jackson (actually, both backs) into the game plan and keep their yards-per-carry averages relatively high.  

Final stat projection: 257 carries, 1,234 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 7 TD, 50 catches, 450 yards, 2 TD

C.J. Spiller 

16-game averages based on 30 games with Bills: 96.5 carries, 450 yards, 4.66 yards per carry, 2.13 TD, 33.6 catches, 227.2 receiving yards

Spiller has slowly acclimated to the NFL game, finding it quite the task to have the patience needed to become a consistent runner at the professional ranks. 

Not often do running backs struggle early in their careers then blossom into stars, but Spiller was tremendous in Buffalo's last five games of 2011 against solid run defenses. 

He was utilized in the correct way last season. The majority of his runs allowed him to get to the perimeter to exhibit his jaw-dropping acceleration and lateral agility. 

The Clemson legend was more patient the moment he received the ball and seemingly understood how to set up blocks and cut off them when offensive linemen paved running lanes in front of him. He was also a steady pass-catcher out of the backfield. 

Spiller averaged 6.6 carries per game last season, and although Jackson should receive the bulk of the carries in 2012, Spiller will have more rushing attempts than he did in 2011. With more attempts and the beneficial experience he gained last year under his belt, he'll be a useful and dynamic aspect of the Bills' offense in the foreseeable future.

Chances are, at some point this summer, reports will surface that Spiller could potentially supplant Jackson as the team's "feature" back, but Gailey isn't that foolish. Although the Bills' coach would love to see his first draft pick emerge as a home run-hitting star, Jackson will be the main running back option in Buffalo and Spiller will be the secondary threat. 

However, expect the third-year scat back to set a career high in carries and yards in 2012.  

A poor man's Reggie Bush of sorts.

Final stat projection: 130 carries, 595 yards, 3 TD, 35 catches, 260 yards 2 TD

Stevie Johnson 

16-game averages based on last 32 games with Bills: 79 catches, 1,038.5 yards, 13.1 yards per catch, 8.5 TD

Johnson is the most misunderstood player on the Bills. Period. His social media savvy, relatability, hip personality and recent productivity that's unparalleled in team history have vaulted him into the spotlight in Buffalo. 

The Bills don't have a true "No. 1" receiver in their offense, but if you ask Bills fans, they'd instantly say he's the team's go-to receiving target. 

They wouldn't be totally incorrect giving Johnson that distinction, as he was the team's leader in catches and receiving yards the last two seasons, but he's not a conventional No. 1 wideout. He's a possession guy, one that's amazing beating press coverage. He's a player that occasionally stretches the field, but is far from a burner. 

Just look at the stats.

Because he's somewhat of an enigma, it's hard pegging what kind of season he'll have in 2012.

Regardless of whether you think he's a superstar or not, he'll be a key cog in Gailey's quick passing attack this year. 

Final stat projection: 75 catches, 1,040 yards, 7 TD

David Nelson

16-game averages based on last 31 games with Bills: 47.5 catches, 521.8 yards, 10.9 yards per catch, 4.13 TD

Nelson's averages are slightly skewed because he had a much smaller role in 2010 than he did last season. He's one of the most reliable players on the Bills, someone who excels in his niche within the offense. 

He'll never be an 80- or 90-catch receiver, but at 6'5'' with soft hands, he's a menacing slot option who will move the chains on a consistent basis. 

Nelson's a favorite of Gailey's with good reason. 

If he stays healthy, his numbers are fairly predictable. 

Final stat projection: 55 catches, 650 yards, 4 TD 

Mario Williams 

16-game averages based on last 34 games with Texans: 31.2 tackles, 10.6 sacks, 1.9 forced fumbles

Williams is easily the hardest Bills player to predict in 2012. When healthy, he's a proven game-changing, pass-rushing commodity capable of 10-plus sacks during a given season.

However, in the last two years, he's dealt with injuries, none of the severe variety. 

His 16-game average of 31 tackles is far too low, as he should see a considerable amount of time on the field in 2012, and he's not a liability against the run. In fact, he thrives against the run. 

On Buffalo's defensive line that already features the imposing and ridiculously promising Marcell Dareus and former Pro Bowler Kyle Williams (who's returning from a foot injury), in the 4-3 alignment, Mario has a prime opportunity to return to "Super Mario" status. 

There's a bit more speculation when it comes to Williams, but here's a reasonable prediction.

Final stat projection: 50 tackles, 10 sacks, 3 forced fumbles

Marcell Dareus 

2011 stat line: 43 tackles, 32 solo, 5.5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery

Dareus was an absolute force in his rookie season and was only afforded the luxury of playing alongside Kyle Williams for a mere five games. 

He improved as the year went along, especially getting off blocks, but he did face an abundance of double-teams when Williams hit the sidelines with injury. 

With Kyle and Mario playing with him, Dareus has a legitimate chance to explode in his second NFL season. 

Seriously. 

The only aspect that's difficult to predict about Dareus 2012 season is this: Will offensive lines double-team him, Kyle Williams or Mario Williams?

Final stat projection: 55 tackles, 39 solo, 7 sacks, 2 forced fumbles

Kelvin Sheppard

2011 stat line: 70 tackles, 46 solo, 1 fumble recovery

Sheppard was solid yet rather unspectacular in 2011. He'll be more comfortable manning the middle of the 4-3 defense, and the year of experience he gained last season was valuable. The defensive line in front of him will significantly help his progression, it's just tough to predict him making a major leap in his second season. 

The LSU product has decent athletic ability and displayed the intelligence to diagnose plays rather quickly last season, but struggled shedding blocks to make impact plays a la Paul Posluszny. 

No, Sheppard wasn't as disappointing as Poz turned out to be in Buffalo, but an unremarkable season is somewhat acceptable as a rookie. 

In the 4-3 defense under Dave Wannstedt, playing alongside Nick Barnett and Kirk Morrison in his second professional year in the NFL, it'd be surprising if Sheppard didn't make a sufficient stride in 2012. 

Final stat projection: 85 tackles, 50 solo 

Nick Barnett 

16-game averages based on last 20 games with Bills and Packers: 123.2 tackles, 2.4 sacks, 2.4 INT

Barnett was a pleasant surprise in his first year with the Bills. He flew all over the field and hardly looked his age (30) all season. His 130-tackle campaign impressed the masses, but playing on a 6-10 team didn't allow him to garner much national attention. 

At 31, Barnett still has the quicks to get sideline-to-sideline to track running backs and has fine instincts on the outside in any defense.

In Wannstedt's 4-3, the former Green Bay Packer has a superb opportunity to show he's still a capable linebacker in his 10th season. 

Final stat projection: 115 tackles, 84 solo 2 sacks, 1 INT

Jairus Byrd

16-game averages based on last 32 games with Bills: 93.5 tackles, 1 sack, 3 forced fumbles, 2 INT, 5 PD

Byrd has made sizable advancements since a reasonably fluky rookie season in which he grasped nine interceptions and was named to the Pro Bowl. 

Then, he was a pure center fielder that couldn't contribute much more to Buffalo's defense. In 2011, he was arguably the team's most dependable defensive asset. 

He's a heady run defender that doesn't shy away from laying the lumber to opposing backs and is an intuitive coverage man who's slowly but surely improved his skills against the pass.

Byrd and George Wilson, the most underrated safety tandem in the AFC.  

It'll be fascinating to see the progress he makes in his fourth professional season, a contract year, with the revamped defensive line in front of him. 

Final stat projection: 90 tackles, 1 sack, 2 forced fumbles, 3 INT, 7 PD

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