NCAA Bubble Confusion: This Week's Winners and Losers

We thought we had it all figured out.  Syracuse and Ohio State were destined to go to the NIT. VCU was supposed to make an easy run to the CAA tournament final. And UConn was well on its way to a very high seed.

Somewhere along the way Syracuse beat Marquette, Ohio State beat Purdue and Michigan State, VCU lost to Willam and Mary, and UConn decided Providence would be a good team to lose to.

So it's back to the drawing board...

Let's take a look at how things stand around the nation.

Virginia Commonwealth won the CAA by three games with a 15-3 conference record.  Sometimes, though, it's not how many you lose, but who you lose to. 

In this case, the Rams may be on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday. With Sunday's loss to William and Mary, VCU has four losses against opponents with an RPI ranking higher than 132. One of those losses came against number 221 James Madison. Had the Rams beaten Miami or Arkansas early in the season, we may be singing a different tune right now. But their quality wins include Akron, Maryland, and Houston.  None of those teams are higher than a 67 RPI ranking. 

So, VCU sits right now with their 151st ranked schedule, a CAA regular season title and a number 57 RPI.  But speaking of Maryland...

Do those guys WANT to play in the NIT?  All they had to do one week ago was hold on to a big lead against Clemson at home. That didn't happen. This week they needed to beat one of the teams at the bottom of the ACC. That didn't happen either.

They are really lucky that neither Miami nor Virginia Tech won their respective games this weekend. Otherwise you could kiss any and all at-large hopes goodbye. The Terps still need a couple wins in the ACC tournament to have a chance. The win against UNC looks great, but there's not much else to Maryland's resume.

The resume builder of the week award goes to Ohio State. The same team that laid an egg in the barn against Minnesota went toe-to-toe with Purdue and Michigan State.  In both games the Buckeyes trailed late in the game, but they pulled out two wins and a renewed sense of hope. 

Heading into the Big Ten tournament they have 19 wins and a 10-8 conference record.  Being number 47 in the RPI isn't bad, but Ohio State will definitely need a win or two this week to feel good about any at-large hopes. The demise of Maryland, Virginia Tech, and VCU definitely helps out every other team who is on the bubble. Who would have thought that the ACC could be a three-bid league while the Big Ten could get in five?

Davidson cannot be denied. They may have started out rough in non-conference play, but the Wildcats are now winners of 21 straight going into Monday night's championship game against Elon. Of all 25 wins, Davidson has won only four of those by single digits.  They have no wins against teams in the top 100 of the RPI, but you can't ignore the way the Wildcats have dominated the SoCon.

Other winners...

Kent State beat Miami (OH) and Akron to lock up first place in the MAC.  They'll most likely be dancing.

Oklahoma beat rival Oklahoma State in Stillwater without Blake Griffin. With Griffin back in the line up, the Sooners took care of Missouri to all but lock up a ticket to the Big Dance.

BYU moved into lock status this week with two wins and an outright Mountain West title. 

Other losers...

UConn was in a virtual tie for first place in the Big East two weeks ago. After a loss to Providence on Saturday the Huskies ended the season in fourth place.

Stanford and Cal both got hosed over on controversial calls against UCLA. Stanford could have used a quality win. Cal could have used a win, period.