The Agony of The Bubble

Championship Week is upon us.  An exciting week for most but a nerve-wracking week for the bubble teams and their fans.  In one week we'll find out who padded their resumes sufficiently enough to catch the committee's eyes and be awarded with the final at-large bids.  But until they reveal the brackets the bubble teams and their fan bases have so much to worry about, it's almost as if they are better off not thinking about all the things that could go wrong for them.

When you are on the big dance fence you become superfans of clubs like Drake, Butler, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Memphis, Xavier, to name a few.  If any of these squads fail to win their conference tournaments, bids will be pilfered.  It could be your teams bid.

Then you also have to worry about underperforming teams in major conferences that make runs in their conference tournaments.  Arkansas making a run to the SEC final last year and Iowa stealing the Big Ten title a few years back come to mind as prime examples of BCS bubble heartbreakers. 

Oh, and then there's the small matter of your team needing a good showing in their conference tournament.  People like to say that "X" team needs "2" conference tourney wins to be "in" but no one really knows for sure.  Anything short of winning your conference tournament and the bubble teams are at the mercy of the committee and the other non-bubble teams looking to sneak in. 

The following fanbases will be sweating it out over their team's games and many others with bubble implications:

Syracuse - For the third straight year the Orange go into MSG squarely on the NCAA fence.  A potential matchup with Villanova could essentially be an NCAA elimination game.  The Orange really need 1 or 2 good looking neutral court wins because right now they don't have any that fit into that category.

Villanova - Similar resume to the Orange - a couple of good wins a couple of awful losses.  I don't think they can rely on the "we got jobbed" by the officials twice line of defense, as true as it may be.  In the end, they may need to get revenge on the court against Gtown in the Big East quarters to have a legitimate claim to a bid.

Maryland - This squad looked like a tournament team after their thrilling win in Chapel Hill.  Unfortunately for Terps fans they've done a lot of things since that big win to have the committee question whether they merit a slot.  It's looking like they'll have to knock off at least one other fellow bubble team in the ACC tournament to feel good about their chances.

Ohio State - the Buckeyes didn't have much of a case coming into this week, what with their horrid record against the RPI Top 50.  But what a week it was for Kosta Koutos et al as they took down Purdue and Michigan State.  Still, they probably have work to do in Chicago and could use at least one more quality win on the resume. 

Texas A&M - they looked like a sure thing earlier in the year when they were consistently in the Top 25.  But the Aggies have stumbled down the stretch and are currently hanging on for dear life at this point.  They have two or three good wins but need to make sure they win at least one Big 12 tourney game to calm their nerves a bit. 

Arizona State - the Sun Devils are a fascinating case - marquee wins over Xavier and Stanford but a really low RPI in the 70s.  With a pair of wins like those it's hard for me to think this isn't one of the best 34 at-large teams.  Still, ASU doesn't want to lay an egg in the Pac 10 tourney and  they could use a win to boost their sketchy RPI.

Kentucky - a tale of two seasons.  Great conference record coupled with a horrid out of conference resume makes UK one of the more interesting cases in years.  The Cats have made a push with their play down the stretch but probably want to put at least one more SEC notch in their belt at the conference tournament before handing their fate over to the bracket makers. 

Arkansas - like the Orange, they are becoming regulars on this list as well.  They probably won't need as remarkable a run in the SECs as they did in 2007, but their work isn't done yet.

The A-10 Foursome - Dayton appears to be on their way to pulling a once promising season out of the fire but could use one more good win from here on out.  UMass has good but not great wins and probably wants to at least get to the A-10 semis to feel good.  St. Joe got a huge resume boost when it beat Xavier but the Dayton loss leaves them probably needing to make the A-10 final to feel good.  Temple has snuck on the radar and needs a run to the A-10 final to feel confident about their chances.

Of course the kicker for these teams is even if they are successful at adding to their profile, it still could all fall apart if the Butlers of the world let them down.