UFC on FX 4: Guida vs. Maynard B/R MMA Staff Predictions

John HeinisJun 20, 2012

The UFC comes to the Revel Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey Friday evening to host their fourth annual event on FX.

The main event features two top-tier lightweights in the form of Clay "The Carpenter" Guida and Gray "The Bully" Maynard in a bout where the winner will be right back "in the mix" at 155 pounds.

The main card kicks off with a featherweight scrap between Ross "The Real Deal" Pearson and Cub Swanson, as both fighters look to crack into the 145-pound top 10 rankings.

At welterweight, Brian "Bad Boy" Ebersole takes on a highly underrated TJ Waldburger in a matchup that promises plenty of highly competitive exchanges on the ground.

In a trilogy six years in the making, Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout takes on Spencer "The King" Fisher in a bout that practically promises the fans an entertaining stand-up war.

Bleacher Report MMA Featured Columnists Matt Juul, Jeffrey McKinney and myself, John Heinis, let you know who leaves the Octagon victorious Friday night.

Take a look inside for the in depth analysis.

Ross Pearson vs. Cub Swanson

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John Heinis: Ross "The Real Deal" Pearson, who won season nine of "The Ultimate Fighter" as a lightweight, looks to make some noise in his second featherweight bout against Cub Swanson.

Pearson has solid striking, good takedown defense and above-average submission know-how due to his brown belt in Judo, so the Englishman is pretty well-rounded.

His first featherweight appearance came at UFC 141, winning a convincing—albeit a fairly lackluster—decision over Junior Assuncao.

He faces a tougher opponent Friday evening, in the form of Cub Swanson.

It's hard not to like Swanson with his relentless aggression and finishing ability (12 finishes in 16 career wins), but it just seems like he doesn't have "it" in terms of finally becoming a legitimate title contender.

Swanson is 3-3 in his past six, getting embarrassingly knocked out by a Jose Aldo double flying knee at WEC 41, the beginning of the six fight stretch.

He was soundly defeating Ricardo Lamas back in November before tapping to an arm triangle choke, bouncing back with an impressive knockout over George Roop in January.

Swanson will continue his inconsistency Friday night, as Pearson refuses to let the former WEC standout get on the inside and win a convincing decision.

Ross Pearson via unanimous decision (30-27)

Matt Juul: TUF season nine winner Ross Pearson made a successful debut at 145 last December, defeating veteran featherweight Junior Assuncao via unanimous decision.

The British fighter will have a huge test in Cub Swanson in what's sure to be a war.

Swanson is coming off a KO victory over fellow WEC veteran George Roop at UFC on FOX 2. Having faced some of the best featherweights in the sport, Swanson has an edge in both experience and the striking department.

Despite Pearson's grit, he won't be able to counter Swanson's barrage of strikes.

Cub Swanson via unanimous decision

Jeffrey McKinney: Opening the night’s main card bout will be two scrappy featherweights in Ross Pearson and Cub Swanson.

Pearson has gone 6-2 in his UFC career, including wins over Dennis Siver, Spencer Fisher, and the Ultimate Fighter season 9 victory over Andre Winner.

In his most recent fight, Pearson won his featherweight debut against Junior Assuncao.

Pearson will be looking to make it two in a row as he takes on WEC vet Cub Swanson.

Swanson has been on an up and down streak, trading wins and losses in his last 6 fights.

In his most recent fight though, Swanson was able to pick up his first UFC victory by knocking out George Roop.

Both Swanson and Pearson like an exciting brawl, which could lead this bout to being fight of the night.

Although Swanson can be a dangerous fighter, I believe Pearson will be more technical and pick up the decision victory.

Ross Pearson by decision

Brian Ebersole vs. TJ Waldburger

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John Heinis: Brian "Bad Boy" Ebersole, a 65-fight veteran, looks to expand on his 10-fight winning streak when he takes on TJ Waldburger.

Waldburger has quietly won six of his past seven, coming off a picture perfect armbar submission over Jake Hect back at UFC on FX 2.

This will be a grapple-heavy affair, with the two fighters having an incredible 32 submission wins between the two of them.

Waldburger may boast the slightly crisper stand up, but he does not have a ton of power in his hands and given Ebersole's iron chin and wrestling pedigree, this one will inevitably go to the ground.

Ebersole may have a hard time getting a tap on a very submission-savvy Waldburger, a BJJ brown belt, but "The White Anderson Silva"'s nasty ground and pound will be the difference maker in this one.

Brian Ebersole via round 3 TKO

Matt Juul: Journeyman welterweight Brian Ebersole has continued his lengthy winning streak since entering the UFC.

The eccentric veteran has rolled over the competition and will finally get a chance to test himself against a young gun of the division.

TJ Waldburger is coming off another impressive submission win, tapping out Jake Hecht in March with an armbar just 55 seconds into the fight.

The 24-year-old submission ace is a huge threat on the ground and will likely look to take Ebersole down.

The Tiger Muay Thai head coach will definitely try to keep the fight standing and pick Waldburger apart. Ebersole's experience will give him the edge, as he will finish his younger opponent.

Brian Ebersole via round 2 TKO

Jeffrey McKinney: Seasoned veteran Brian Ebersole will meet up-and-comer TJ Waldburger in a welterweight bout.

Ebersole is currently on a 10-fight winning streak and is looking to get one step closer to title contention.

Ebersole will have a challenge on his hands, though as he takes on a very hungry TJ Waldburger.

With 12 of his 15 wins by submission, Waldburger should be looking to take the fight to the ground and make Ebersole tap.

Because Ebersole has never been knocked out in 65 fights, trying to submit him may be Waldburger’s best bet.

Ebersole is no slouch on the ground though. Ebersole has a good wrestling game and 20 wins by submission.

I believe Ebersole’s experience will also play a factor in this bout. If he can catch Waldburger making a mistake, he could very well take advantage of it.

Brian Ebersole by TKO

Sam Stout vs. Spencer Fisher

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John Heinis: Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout takes on Spencer "The King" Fisher in what is all but guaranteed to be a show-stealer.

These two first met at UFC 58, with Stout winning a close split decision. They rematched at UFC Fight Night 10 just over a year later, where Fisher got his hand raised.

While neither of these guys will ever reach the upper echelon of the lightweight division, there can't be too many fans upset about this trilogy getting a definitive conclusion.

Interestingly, both men are coming off of losses to Thiago Tavares, but aside from that, both men have a very different recent history inside the Octagon.

Fisher has lost four of his past five, beating only the lowly Curt Warburton, while Stout has won four of his past six. He has beaten respectable opponents in Matt Wiman, Joe Lauzon and a highlight-reel worthy knockout of Yves Edwards.

Long story short, the 28-year-old Stout looks like he has much more gas in the tank than the 36-year-old Fisher. Expect another entertaining stand-up war that very well could steal "Fight of the Night" honors.

Sam Stout via round 3 KO

Matt Juul: Another battle of lightweight veterans, Sam Stout and Spencer Fisher will both be looking to get back into the win column Friday night, as they take each other on for the third time.

Stout took a close split decision at UFC 58, but Fisher returned the favor with a unanimous decision win when the two headlined UFC Fight Night 10.

Coincidentally, both men are coming off of losses to Thiago Tavares while taking the Brazilian on in his home country. Fisher suffered a second round TKO defeat at UFC 134, while Stout lost a hard fought decision to Tavares at UFC 142.

With so much history between each other, expect another tough battle between these two lightweights. Fisher will have more pressure on him, as the aging 36-year-old is just 1-4 in his last five fights and is likely on the verge of a pink slip.

Stout has looked good in his bouts prior to facing Tavares, and should be a favorite going into this fight.

Sam Stout via unanimous decision

Jeffrey McKinney: For the third time in their careers, lightweight vets Sam Stout and Spencer Fisher will meet each other in the night’s co-main event.

Stout and Fisher have split the series of fights. Stout won the first one at UFC 58 by split decision in a bout that Fisher took on short notice.

Some felt that Fisher should have won the first bout between the two, because he landed harder strikes.

Fisher would have his revenge a year later at UFC Fight Night 10, when he defeated Stout by unanimous decision.

Both men would love to walk out with a victory as they are coming off of losses.

Fisher needs the win more though, going 1-4 in his last five fights.

Stout has had a much better record in recent years, but is still only 4-4 in his last 8 and hasn’t defeated a top contender.

This should be another great fight with both men looking to stand and trade.

While Fisher needs the win more, I believe Stout will get the better of him and prove he deserved the first win between the two.

Sam Stout by KO

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Gray Maynard vs. Clay Guida

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John Heinis: Despite 12 losses on his record, Clay "The Carpenter" Guida remains not only a lightweight title contender, but also one of the most popular fighters in the UFC.

He will take on fellow perennial contender Gray "The Bully" Maynard in a match in which the loser will likely be relegated to gatekeeper status for good.

Guida rattled off four wins in a row between 2010 and 2011, including an upset over former WEC champion Anthony Pettis, only to lose a title eliminator bout to Benson Henderson in November.

While his striking leaves something to be desired, "The Caveman" can give just about any 155-pounder trouble with his wrestling, submission skills and non-stop cardio.

Meanwhile, Gray Maynard was within seconds of beating then-champion Frankie Edgar—twice actually—but was knocked out in their third encounter at UFC 136.

It was the first loss in Maynard's career; a real disappointment, since he beat Edgar way back in April of 2008, but he still believes he is a future champion and looks to prove it here.

Maynard will have a tough time taking Guida down and holding him their for a full five rounds, though he has a noted wrestling advantage on paper, to the point where I'm awfully tempted to pick Guida.

However, Clay will still have a very tough time getting the former Michigan State wrestler down and Maynard is still a much better boxer, so "The Bully" wins a hard fought decision here.

Gray Maynard via unanimous decision (49-46, 48-47 x 2)

Matt Juul: This is one of the best main event's to grace an FX card yet.

Gray Maynard and Clay Guida use a similar fighting style that features relentless wrestling, great athleticism and heavy strikes.

Guida moves a little more than Maynard and may have an edge in the submission game, but the "Bully" that will be in the Octagon on Friday night is nowhere near the same fighter that lost to then-champ Frankie Edgar at UFC 136.

After the loss, Maynard switched camps to American Kickboxing Academy, and spent time with featherweight title holder Jose Aldo and team Nova Uniao in Brazil.

An exceptional fighter prior to the changes, I can't wait to see what he's added to his game.

Ultimately, this is a battle of who falls first. Maynard can end this fight quickly with his heavy hands, but Guida's chin and conditioning could take this bout to the later rounds.

While Guida can very well weather the storm, I believe that the new Maynard will be the first to KO/TKO "the Carpenter".

Gray Maynard via round 2 TKO

Jeffrey McKinney: In the night’s main event, Gray Maynard and Clay Guida will meet in a lightweight battle.

Maynard has been unsuccessful at defeating Frankie Edgar in his last two bouts, despite nearly knocking out the former champ in the first round of each fight.

Maynard will be looking to get back into championship contention with a win over Guida.

Guida was looking to possibly face the winner of Maynard vs. Edgar as he was riding a four-fight winning streak.

However, a loss to current lightweight champ Benson Henderson stopped Guida’s title hopes.

Both men will now have to climb back up the rankings.

Guida will come into this bout with a great gas tank and a ton of experience. His unorthodox style may also frustrate Maynard.

But, Maynard has great power in his hands and has the wrestling skills to smother just about anybody in the division.

Both men may look to take the fight to the ground at some point in the fight. But I believe Maynard will win that battle.

His first and only loss came by knockout to Frankie Edgar. While Guida is a scrappy fighter, he is not really known for his knockout power.

Look for Maynard to out wrestle Guida and win by decision.

Gray Maynard by unanimous decision