NBA Draft Analysis: 2008 vs. 2003

The 2008 NBA rookie class is going to go down as one of the best NBA drafts of all-time.  The 1996 and 2003 drafts have been two of the best in recent memory.  The ’84 draft probably has them both beat, but this class has the potential to be great.

The Top Five:

Derrick Rose.  The ultra-athletic guard out of Memphis has been known to basketball fans for a few years now.  He brings a dynamic to his position the way LeBron has to the swing man position.  His natural ability to make plays is as unique as we have seen.  He’s just as dangerous attacking the basket as he is passing the ball. 

The holes in his game are fixable holes.  He needs to improve his free throw shooting (just ask Justin Timberlake) and become a viable outside threat so teams can’t do the Rajon Rondo defense.  He will be a great point guard for years to come.

LeBron James.  I’m not saying Derrick Rose is going to be better than LeBron in any way here but the numbers aren’t that much different.  LeBron: 21 ppg, 6 apg, and 5.5 rpg.  Rose:  17 ppg,  6.5 apg, and 3.5 rpg.  LeBron is a one-of-a-kind player that I don’t think we’ll ever see anyone comparable to LeBron again but Derrick Rose impact on the game will be as big as LeBron's years to come. 

Michael Beasley is a match-up nightmare for teams.  His problem right now is that he’s not big enough to defend the bigger posts in the NBA but not quite quick enough to guard the great perimeter players either.  His athleticism is a big help to his “problems” physically.  As far as talent goes he may be the most talented basketball player in this class. 

He has the ability to go inside and outside, isn’t scared to have the ball late, and plays mature beyond his years.  The best case scenario for him would be to play his career as a three and abuse people in the paint.  He’ll probably end up being what Lamar Odom was supposed to be. 

Darko Milicic.  Well that’s about enough about that subject. 

O.J. Mayo has perennial all-star written all over him.  He’s going to average 20-25 points a game no problem and his uncanny offensive skill-set will make him a defensive headache his entire career.  A thing great about his game is his willingness to play defense so early in his career. 

He isn’t one of those guys that runs twice as hard on offense as defense.  He plays tough on both.  If Memphis can keep the core of Mayo, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley Jr., and Marc Gasol around they will be a team on the rise.

Carmelo Anthony.  Like Mayo, Anthony came into the league right away and was a potent scorer.  These two will be comparable because I think Mayo is going to put up numbers like ‘Melo he’s not going to be as known playing for Memphis as ‘Melo wasn’t when he was drafted to the Nuggets.

Russell Westbrook.  Westbrook is a dynamic combo guard on a team full of young talent.  The things he and Kevin Durant have the potential to do together are scary.  If Jeff Green develops better and they can find a big man to hold his own for them, they won’t be a lottery team for long. 

Westbrook has been compared to guys like Dwayne Wade and Gilbert Arenas already in his young career.  If he gets to that level the Thunder will be a force in the NBA for years to come. 

Dwayne Wade.  Wade has been the most successful on the team level of any of the guys named.  A big reason for that would be Kobe’s desire to get Shaq out of L.A. for peanuts and Wade’s incredible playoff performance in the 2006 NBA postseason. 

Wade is short for the two at 6’4" but makes up for it with his deadly offensive skill and athletic ability.  Wade flew under the radar of LeBron and Carmelo much like Westbrook will under Rose/Beasley/Mayo. 

Kevin Love.  Love was called undersized, not athletic enough, too slow, anything else you could say to fully reach his NBA potential and be better for Minnesota than O.J. Mayo.  Love dropped weight before the season started, got quicker, earned his minutes and has been an absolute gem for a struggling wolves team. 

Now more than ever he’ll have to prove his toughness with Al Jefferson going down for the season with a torn ACL.  Love has a dynamic ability about him many post players don’t possess, passing.  His ability to make passes and willingness to make passes are making him a popular teammate and one of the top rookies in this class.

It wouldn’t shock me to see him get serious Rookie of the Year consideration now that he’ll have a starting role for Minnesota, his numbers will flourish. 

Chris Bosh.  Bosh was a relatively unknown from this class, mainly because he played for the helpless Toronto Raptors.  They were a weak team in a weak conference with Bosh as the only bright spot.  Last year when they got into the playoffs after the put some players around him he finally started getting recognition.  He’s an all-star caliber player with game changing ability and uncanny quickness for a power forward. 

The edge in top five has to go to the 2008 class because of the giant bust of Darko Milicic.  I don’t see any of these players becoming a bust short of an injury to one of them. 

Best of the rest

2003:  Chris Kaman, Kirk Hinrich, T.J. Ford, David West, Boris Diaw, Travis Outlaw,  Kendrick Perkins, Leandro Barbosa, Josh Howard, Nick Collison, Keith Bogans, Maurice WIlliams, and Kyle Korver.

There are some definite players on this list and a few all-stars.  David West didn’t burst onto the scene the way others did but he developed into a very good NBA player.  Chris Kaman when healthy is a very formidable center given the NBA’s current lack of big men.  TJ Ford, Kirk Hinrich, Barbosa are all game changing guards with unique skills.

Ford’s quickness, Hinrich’s shooting ability, and Barbosa’s blazing speed are great assets for any team to have.  Travis Outlaw is still developing and should be a great player.  Mo Williams was the second biggest all-star snub of this season next to Al Jefferson and is a very good point guard with scoring ability. 

Others on this list are more important to their teams than people may have originally expected.  Whether starting for the world champs (Perkins) or coming off the bench, (Korver) this draft was deep. 

2008: Danilo Galinari, Eric Gordon, Joe Alexander, D.J. Augustin, Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless, Brandon Rush, Anthony Randolph, Roy Hibbert, Courtney Lee, Donte Greene, Mario Chalmers, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Goran Dragic, Deandre Jordan.

This list is much longer, but we don’t know if these guys are busts just yet.  I really think the first seven on this list have potential to be great players.  Mario Chalmers and CDR are huge second round steals for any team.  Chalmers has been the starting point guard for Miami almost all year and if CDR ever got on the floor for New Jersey they’d see he’s got the ability to be great in this league.

If Deandre Jordan and Roy Hibbert develop we may see two dominant big men on the rise.  Brook Lopez is going to be a great center in the NBA and his brother Robin (not on the list) will be a defensive specialist at best.  Eric Gordan may end up being the best player from this draft as he continues to improve. 

I would say for right now I give the edge to the 2008 draft on the sole reason that there is so much potential for this class to have 20+ great players you can’t deny them.  The great players from the 2003 draft are some of the best we’ve seen in a long time but I firmly believe the NBA forcing players to go to college for at least one year made this draft what it is. 

Some of these guys got so much better from their college experience playing in big games, it made the jump to the NBA not as shocking. 

Well there you have it.  Now tell me everything that is wrong with what I just said.

Hagness, out.