UFC on FX 4 Head-to-Toe Breakdown: Gray Maynard vs Clay Guida

This Friday, Clay Guida will face off against Gray Maynard in the main event of UFC on FX 4.

Both fighters enter the cage coming off losses to the top two fighters in the division—Guida to Benson Henderson and Maynard to Frankie Edgar.

Guida and Maynard are almost universally considered to be top five lightweights, and their fight could be for a No. 1 contender position, or could put them in position to fight for a No. 1 contender spot.

Fans are torn on who will win this fight, so let's take a look at a breakdown of the lightweight matchup.

Striking

This one shouldn't be a real surprise to anyone who watched Maynard's two most recent fights against Frankie Edgar, where he rocked the champ multiple times in the first round in each fight.

While he was unable to finish Edgar both times, he showed that he has some serious power in his hands, and can throw them with efficiency.

Guida is always game to strike, and has a great chin to support that, but he's not on the level of striking that Maynard is.

Edge: Gray Maynard

Wrestling

Again, Maynard has the edge in a big area of the game.

Gray has used his great wrestling to earn decision wins over top fighters like Kenny Florian, Jim Miller, Frankie Edgar and Nate Diaz.

Clay Guida's main area of expertise is his wrestling, but against Maynard, he may find himself outmatched in that department.

Edge: Gray Maynard

Submissions

While Maynard took the edge in the first two categories, Guida has a clear advantage when it comes to submissions.

Maynard has never earned a submission win in his career, and Guida has earned four in the UFC and 15 total for his career.

There's no doubt who has the advantage here.

Edge: Clay Guida

Strength and Conditioning

Gray Maynard is known as one of the strongest lightweights in the division. He is able to throw his opponents around the cage, and when he takes you down it is incredibly difficult to get back up.

On the other end of that, Clay Guida is known for having—arguably—the best cardio in the division, and he can go hard for a full 15 or 25 minutes without slowing down.

Edge: Push

Experience

One look at the records of these fighters, and you have your immediate answer.

Clay Guida is 29-12 in his career, for a total of 41 fights. He has been the main event of several cards, and has fought for—and won—the Strikeforce lightweight title.

Gray Maynard is 10-1-1 [1 NC] in his career, for a total of 13 fights. Maynard has been the main event of two PPV cards and one other card.

Edge: Clay Guida

Variables

Maynard: For Maynard, this fight is going to be him looking to prove that he still belongs in the elite of the lightweight division. After two unsuccessful attempts to win the lightweight title, it has been nearly two years since his last win. A victory over Guida will show that he is still top three in the division, and that he deserves another crack at the lightweight title.

Guida: Guida has been close to a title shot before, but he always seemed to come up short at the wrong time. At UFC on Fox 1, he fought Benson Henderson for a No. 1 contender spot and soundly dropped a unanimous decision. Guida will need a win to prove he is an elite lightweight, as many people are not believers in him, even after his win over Anthony Pettis.

Prediction

On paper, this fight is Gray Maynard's for the taking.

He is better standing up, and his wrestling is better than that of Guida. He will be able to dictate where the fight takes place, and when it takes place there.

There is always the chance that Clay has a few tricks up his sleeve, or has greatly improved in either his striking or wrestling, but without something drastic happening, he may have a tough fight ahead of him.

The other option is that Gray may tire in later rounds, giving Guida an opportunity to capitalize.

Prediction: Gray Maynard by unanimous decision.

Tim McTiernan is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. For the latest news on everything MMA, follow him on Twitter @TimMcTiernan.