US Open Golf 2012: Expert Predictions for Tiger, Phil, Rory and More

Tiger Woods is the guy we're all supposed to believe is going to win the US Open. He hasn't won a major since 2008—yes, that's pre-meltdown—but he's won two events this year, including his last one, the Memorial. As a result, he's been dubbed the 13-2 favorite to win it all at Olympic (via Bovada).

But still, we all know what happened the last time Tiger won an event and was subsequently pegged as the favorite to win a major. The Masters happened, and he finished in a 40th-place tie. 

As a result, it's kind of easy to see why many of the experts are staying away from him. Here's how the smart people believe the big names will do this weekend at the US Open.

Tiger Woods

Though the hype would compel most people to stay away from Tiger, Farrell Evans isn't one of them. The ESPN expert is picking Tiger to win his 14th major and his first US Open since 2008 because he believes the dark days are over. Tiger tends to play well at the US Open, especially when it's in California. He's won two of the last three US Opens in his home state.

ESPN's Ian O'Connor is on the Tiger bandwagon as well, despite the fact that he admits the favorites don't win at Olympic, which is one of the most challenging, narrowest courses the tour has to offer. Still, O'Connor thinks Tiger's confidence is going to go a long way after that win at Memorial, but didn't he have plenty of confidence heading into the Masters?

Maybe because Tiger's healthy, he's back in top form—which puts him leagues ahead of the competition, even now. That seems to be the consensus.

Phil Mickelson

Mickelson is in search of his first-ever US Open win after finishing as high as second five times. Playing in the same group as Tiger and Bubba Watson is going to be a unique challenge—and a benefit, too, the way he sees it. Neither of them will get an advantage as far as tee times.

But Sports Illustrated senior writer Damon Hack believes Phil's elephant in the room might endure a little longer because the course at Olympic is too tough a challenge for him, considering his recent struggles with bogeys. Someone like Zach Johnson, who can conquer the course with birdies, might fair better at Olympic. But not Phil. 

Hack does believe Phil needs this win to get to the next level in golf lore: Not only has he never won the US Open, but he hasn't yet won five majors, which would tie him with Seve Ballesteros, his boyhood hero. 

The fans, however, aren't so quick to count out Lefty. According to a poll conducted by PGA.com, Mickelson has been dubbed the second-favorite to win—behind only Tiger, of course. You have to figure that the dry spell will end sometime, and popular belief would contend that that time is now.

Rory McIlroy

Rory came out of a horrific performance at the Masters last year to famously win the US Open by eight shots (now that I think about it, maybe Tiger really can win). This year, he's been similarly underwhelming, so perhaps he just needs the US Open's big stage to motivate him once again. 

But motivation isn't all that's wrong, according to FoxSports.com's Robert Lusetich; the pressure has really gotten to this 23-year-old, who was once dubbed the next Tiger. Since winning the US Open in 2011, there has been a proliferation of issues with his swing and he's developed some "lazy habits," according to Lusetich, that have led to his downfall. 

Given the tough course at Olympic, that downfall doesn't look like it's over quite yet. McIlroy has been missing key shots he used to make, and he's been missing cuts, all of which has taken a toll on his confidence. Compare that to someone like Tiger Woods who's riding high on himself at the moment, and you can see why Tiger's the favorite and Rory is not. 

Of learning to deal with immense expectations, McIlroy told Lusetich: 

"

It's just finding a balance of everything. With getting enough practice, sponsor commitments, media. You know, what tournaments to play, having a life outside of what you do around golf. … It is about finding a balance. And it's something I still feel like I'm learning to do.

"

McIlroy hasn't been playing well enough this year to find his way to the top of anyone's predictions. Lusetich doesn't offer one, but it's clear he doesn't see McIlroy finishing this weekend at the top of the leaderboard. Brian Wacker of PGATour.com has him finishing fifth in their draft-style prediction.

Bubba Watson

Bubba may have won the Masters a couple of months ago, but there are very few who see his unorthodox style translating well to Olympic. Add to that the pressure of playing alongside Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, and Watson might be toast.

The Masters was Watson's first major win, and that was a tournament in which Woods and Rory McIlroy played exceptionally poorly. Not many are expecting the same lackluster performance out of Tiger, nor are they expecting such dominance out of Watson.

According to The Boston Globe's Michael Whitmer, the US Open never follows a script, so anyone could win—but will it be a guy who's finished in a tie for 18th place and missed the cut at the Memorial in his last two outings? Unlikely.

Even Watson himself doesn't seem to think he has a win in him. Of the fast, foggy course at Olympic, he told ESPN.com's Bob Harig: 

"

Do I like it? I'll tell you in a few days. I don't like it. There's an 80 lurking. After four days of golf, if there's not an 80, then I like it all right. … There's something on every hole that can get you. It makes it very difficult. That's a nice PC way of saying it.

"

Confidence can't buy a win, but neither can hopelessness. The PGA.com draft has this year's Masters champ finishing outside the top 10, and Golfweek.com's staffers have him finishing 20th.

Andy Zhang

If the US Open is a stage that often produces unlikely heroes, then perhaps Andy Zhang has a better shot at glory than we believe. Or maybe a 14-year-old just doesn't have the experience necessary to win on a course that's been dubbed one of the toughest in America, against the top competition in the world. 

Zhang is the youngest player ever to qualify for the US Open, so maybe playing at all is as good as a victory for him. He earned his spot after Paul Casey withdrew, and now he's competing in the place where his golf career started: His mother took him to San Diego when he was 10, and he never went back because he loved the courses in the US so much, according to Golfweek's Nick Masuda. 

If Zhang won this year, the story would be one for the ages. It would almost be better than Tiger winning. But will it happen? There is nobody at all who thinks he's going to finish in the top 25, and according to Bovada, his odds are 1000-1.