NBA Draft 2012: Why Combine Results Don't Indicate Future Success

Once the results of the draft combine are in, prospects are shifted up and down draft boards depending on how they fared in the various measurements and drills. While some shifting is necessary, in my opinion, large shifts should not occur at this stage of the draft process.

The combine can only show so much and it certainly doesn't indicate future success.

As Chad Ford recently wrote in an ESPN Insider article:

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Everyone takes these with a grain of salt. Every year, the quote "best athlete in the draft" does not turn into the best player in the draft. But teams do take these reports seriously. This is the first objective testing that we have on these guys, and sometimes our eyes do deceive us. 

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So, what does the combine reveal if it doesn't show everyone tuning in exactly who the next big thing in The Association is going to be? 

With its massive amounts of poking and prodding, the combine does indeed reveal the exact measurements of players involved. However, despite what we may say about a player being a mismatch at his position or too undersized, measurements aren't everything.

Plenty of players have overcome challenges in the height department and had successful or legendary careers. Likewise, the list of tall players or prospects with large wingspans who have turned into massive busts is nearly endless. 

The combine also puts the best athletes under a microscope and reveals whether they're really as springy as everyone seems to think. While these tests are certainly valid, athleticism is similar to the physical measurements in that it's not a perfect indicator of future success. 

In a lot of ways, athleticism is a mask for a deficiency in other aspects of the game. The more athletic players are able to get away with technical flaws and holes in their array of skills because they can out-run, out-jump, out-shuffle and out-dunk other players at lower levels. 

A great athlete is not necessarily a great basketball player, a truism that often gets loft in the shuffle in the days immediately following the combine. 

Before identifying the best athletes from combines in the past, DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony revealed his thoughts on the matter: 

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He has a 7-6 ¾ wingspan, and a 9-3 ½ standing reach. He jumps out of the gym with a 39 inch vertical, bench presses 185 pounds 24 times and runs a 3.3 in the three-quarter court sprint. But can he shoot? Dribble? Catch a rebound? Play? Do we even care?

It’s that time once again, our favorite time of the year of course; 10 days before the draft when everything logical in regards to analyzing basketball gets flushed down the toilet. Instead we focus on superficial things that have proven again and again to have very little correlation with actual success in the NBA.

This player is superior to that player because his standing reach is two inches longer. That guy is a better prospect because he bench pressed 185 pounds 19 times instead of the eight someone else did. Let’s just forget irrelevant things like how many points and rebounds a player averaged, what kind of drive he has to improve or how many games he helped his team win, because those obviously have no bearing on a player’s success.

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Just remember when you're looking over the results that the prospect who blew you away isn't necessarily going to be an NBA stud. 

More than the grain of salt Ford mentioned is necessary. Sometimes, the whole shaker is. And in some cases, you might need to run to the grocery store to refill it.