US Open Odds 2012: Tiger Woods Won't Thrive as Favorite

Tiger Woods is the clear favorite heading into the 2012 US Open, but he won't win the tournament. It's not to say he won't play well, or even that I'm not rooting for him, but I don't believe he has found the consistency necessary to pull this one off.

He is certainly getting there, but we thought that same thing heading into the Masters. Woods had just captured the Bay Hill Invitational, it was Arnold Palmer's tournament and everyone was saying he's back.

Tiger fell flat at Augusta (finished 40th) and the doubters came out of the woodwork again.

Here we are headed into another major, and Tiger has just conquered another icon's course. Woods took Jack Nicklaus' Memorial tournament, and it featured this ridiculous shot at 4:45 of the video below as the signature moment:

It was a thrilling and impressive win, and on the strength of that performance he's the man to beat in San Francisco this coming weekend.

I believe Woods will play much better than he did at Augusta, but I'm predicting a top-five finish for him, not a title. The Olympic in San Francisco figures to be a difficult course. Woods himself finished 18th at the course the last time the Open was played there. Even though that was the US Open of 1998, it's a frame of reference.

He'll need to be accurate off the tee and in his second shot. This is where he's struggled so far this golfing season.

His driving accuracy is under 66 percent, which isn't even in the top 20 on the tour. Tiger's par-four performance hasn't been encouraging this year. He's only birdied 15 percent of them, and there are 12 challenging par fours on this course.

When he is right, he is a monster on the par fives, but this year he's just been decent.

He has birdied just under 48 percent of those opportunities. There are back-to-back par fives at the Olympic on No. 16 and No. 17. Hole No. 16 is 670 yards, which is the longest hole in US Open history.

This course isn't a great fit considering Woods' specific struggles this year. His game is on the upswing, but will it be improved enough to win the US Open?

I say no, but I'd love to be wrong.

I'm ready for Tiger to take back control of the game, and a win at the US Open would do that.

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