Big Ten Football: What Early Vegas Lines Reveal About the 2012 B1G Season

Betting website Covers.com got an exclusive look at 111 early lines for college football games from the Golden Nugget casino. We won't link because gambling is bad for you, but looking at lines is fun, so here are a few that really jumped out at us and might give an indication about the 2012 Big Ten landscape.

Also, the "smart money" here is rhetorical. Don't bet. Seriously, don't.

Boise State at Michigan State (-6)

In the Big Ten season opener on Friday, August 31, Michigan State gets a small but significant boost from the oddsmakers here.  

Smart Money: Michigan State. The Spartans offensive line is too good for Boise to stop the run without over-committing, and the MSU defense is going to put on an absolute clinic against whoever the Broncos' brand-new starter is.

Michigan vs. Alabama (-12)

The real big game of the opening week, however, is Michigan and Alabama squaring off in a BCS bowl type of atmosphere at Cowboys Stadium. Twelve points seems like a lot for a reigning Sugar Bowl champion, but Alabama's coming off a dominant national title run.  

Smart Money: Michigan. Alabama lost a lot of elite talent on defense, and no matter how good Nick Saban is at recruiting or coaching, most of these guys aren't going to be fully prepared for Denard Robinson's athleticism. Look for Michigan to stay close.

Michigan at Notre Dame (-1)

Notre Dame comes in as a one-point favorite in this Week 4 showdown, the Irish's third and last of the year against the Big Ten. Whatever lingering effects there might be from the Alabama game should be long since gone from the Wolverines' system as they get set to put an exclamation point on their non-conference slate.  

Smart Money: Michigan. Denard Robinson typically struggles away from home, but he set still-standing career highs in rushing yardage (258) and total yardage (502) in South Bend in 2010—only his second career start. The Notre Dame defense is much better now, but so is Robinson.

Nebraska at Ohio State (-1)

One of the most intriguing matchups of the entire conference slate is this contest between two teams with dynamic athletes at QB, bruising running games and suffocating front sevens on defense. Nebraska stormed back from being down 21 to steal a win in Lincoln last year, and OSU will be thirsty for revenge.  

Smart Money: Nebraska. The experience gap is still on Nebraska's side, and Taylor Martinez really came on strong as a passer down the stretch last year. He should find holes in a still-green Ohio State secondary.

Michigan at Ohio State (-2)

Michigan and Ohio State have had this game circled on their schedules since before the parking lots were even cleared at the Big House last November 26. Michigan will probably be playing for at least a share of the Legends Division title, while this is Ohio State's Super Bowl.  

Smart Money: Ohio State. With a full season to implement and refine the offense against opposing defenses, Braxton Miller should be rounding into elite form as a quarterback by now, and the Michigan offensive line is decidedly a step below Ohio State's front four across the board. Ohio State controls the line of scrimmage and wins a slugfest.