6 Reasons the Pittsburgh Pirates Can Sustain Their Early-Season Success

Following this weekend's sweep of the Kansas City Royals, the Pittsburgh Pirates sit at 32-27, a half-game behind the NL Central-leading Cincinnati Reds pending the result of tonight's Reds-Tigers game. Following up on a 2011 season in which the Pirates held sole possession of first place as late as July 18, it appears the Pirates are gearing up for a second consecutive summer of contention.

There are reasons to be skeptical. The Pittsburgh offense has been historically bad, and the Pirates' minus-17 run differential following Sunday's victory over the Royals suggests that their winning ways could be short-lived.

Yet these are not the 2011 Pirates—the 2012 Pirates have been legitimately good in several areas and have many paths to improvement in the areas in which they have struggled. There are several reasons to believe the Pirates can compete for a playoff berth and end their streak of 19 consecutive losing seasons this year.

1. The Pirates' Strong Piching Performance Is No Fluke

Similar to 2011, the Pirates' early-season success has been paced by strong performances from its pitching staff. However that is where the similarities between the two pitching units ends.

When the Pittsburgh pitching staff crumbled down the stretch last season, this was not a huge surprise—the Pirates were made up primarily of low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact arms who were outperforming their peripheral statistics and were ripe for regression. When regression came, it came swiftly.

The 2012 pitching staff is much different. Led by breakout star James McDonald and a resurgent A.J. Burnett, the Pirates are striking guys out. Four current Pittsburgh starters—McDonald, Burnett, offseason acquisition A.J. Burnett and spot starter Brad Lincoln—have recorded over eight K/9 so far this season. The only Pirate starting pitcher with a FIP over 3.50 is Kevin Correia, and the Pirates have Jeff Karstens and Charlie Morton waiting in the wings to replace Correia when he does regress.

Led by Jason Grilli and his 14.4 K/9, the Pirates' bullpen has started the season on a similarly strong note. While the group has outperformed its FIP this year and is expected to regress some, it remains an above-average unit.

2. The Core of the Pittsburgh Offense Has Underperformed

When Neal Huntington devised his blueprint for the 2012-2014 Pittsburgh offense three years ago, Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and Jose Tabata were expected to comprise a young core around which the team could be built. So far this season, only McCutchen has lived up to expectations.

McCutchen is developing into a superstar, as his 149 wRC+ (which does not include his home run and double in today's victory) represents. But the rest of the Pirates' young core has faltered this season, which is one of the main reasons why McCutchen is the only Pittsburgh player currently producing at league average or better offensively.

Walker has shown signs of life recently, increasing his OPS by 50 points over his last 10 games, but his slugging percentage remains well below his career averages. Meanwhile, Alvarez remains extremely streaky and Tabata has somehow managed to perform significant below replacement level over the first third of the season.

Walker, Alvarez and Tabata have not yet proved they are reliable Major League regulars, so it would be unwise to expect breakouts from any or all of these players during the remainder of the season. But at the moment they are all playing at or reasonably close to their respective floors, so the Pirates should see some improvement in their offensive performances over the rest of 2012.

3. The Farm System Offers Internal Improvements to the Pirates Offense

The struggles of key players are only partly responsible for the Pirates' early-season offensive failures—secondary players have provided next to no offense from first base, right field and shortstop.

The Pirates have players who can provide superior production than what they are getting at each of these positions and have yet to be fully utilized. The recently promoted Alex Presley has provided a jolt to the Bucs offense this past week and a temporary solution to their outfield issues, while first-baseman Jeff Clement has been tearing up Triple-A and shortstop Jordy Mercer is waiting for his shot at extended playing time.

None of these players are world beaters. Aside from Presley, none are even likely to be league-average players. But they do not have to be league-average players for the Pirates to improve—they just have to provide better production than what the Bucs have been getting from players such as Matt Hague, Clint Barmes, Casey McGehee and Garrett Jones. This is a standard they are capable of meeting.

Additionally, if the Pirates remain in the pennant race through the summer and top hitting prospect Starling Marte continues to hone his plate discipline in Triple-A, we may see Marte in Black and Gold by September, which would provide another jolt to the Bucs offense.

4. Prospect Depth Will Enable Neal Huntington to Improve the Big League Club

The Pirates possess a luxury that will make them a desired trading partner for many teams: young, Major League-ready pitching. In addition to having as many as seven capable starters on their current roster (including the injured Karstens and Morton, who are both expected to return before too long), Pittsburgh has the option of trading or promoting Jeff Locke and Rudy Owens, two 24-year-olds who are both posting strong stats in Triple-A this year.

Players like Owens, Locke and Brad Lincoln (keeping in mind that if the Pirates feel they are comfortable promoting Locke, for example, they could consider dealing Lincoln to net a superior batter) are capable of being the centerpieces of a July trade for a hitter.

These pitchers are not elite prospects, and they will not net elite hitters in return. But the Pirates do not need to acquire an elite hitter to materially improve their offense. A league-average first baseman will significant help the offense, for example, and all three pitchers are better prospects than Aaron Baker, whom the Pirates traded to Baltimore last year for Derrek Lee.

Ideally, the Pirates would trade Owens, who has the worst strikeout capabilities of the three and yet has decent value due to his low ERA in Triple-A this year and his pedigree as a prospect. But the Pirates are better off for their pitching depth regardless of which path Huntington chooses.

5. The Pirates Have Been There Before

2011 was a whirlwind summer in Pittsburgh. Intense crowds every game, excitement building week after week, players partaking in games with greater significance than any professional games many of them had every played before. The Steel City was electric.

Then things went south, and they went south quickly. Jerry Meals called Julio Lugo safe, the Pirates lost 11 of 14 games, and the team was on its way to another losing season. When they were faced with adversity, the Bucs didn't know how to fight back and stop the slide.

Now the Pirates have that experience. They know what it was like to win, and they know what it was like to search for answers when things went wrong. When adversity hits this year, the players on the Pittsburgh bench will be able to draw on being a winning team as late as July last season and do a better job of keeping their emotions in check.

The addition of respected veterans like A.J. Burnett and Rod Barajas doesn't hurt, either. This team has conducted itself calmly throughout the season, expecting to win and bouncing back from losses. That attitude will carry over throughout the summer.

6. Why Not?

It's been 19 years since Sid Bream beat Barry Bonds' throw to home plate. 19 years since the Pirates had a winning season. Almost 19 years since the Pirates had as much hope and promise as they do now.

Andrew McCutchen is a superstar. James McDonald is a Cy Young contender. The rest of the pitching staff is doing its job. Sure, the Pirates are outperforming their run differential, but much crazier things have happened, and this team has a lot of room for improvement.

19 years. Why not believe?

It's going to be a fun summer, Pirate fans. Let's enjoy the ride.