Euro 2012 Odds: 4 Best Bets to Win the Golden Boot

Euro 2012––the world's second most prestigious tournament––kicks off tomorrow as Greece takes on Poland. But before it starts, it might be time to place some last-minute hypothetical bets, which would surely make the games more interesting were gambling legal.

The top individual honor of any tournament is The Golden Boot, awarded to the player who finishes with the most goals. It's a tough one to bet, because a guy can score every game in the group round, but his team may not advance, rendering him useless for the rest of the tournament. So a prolific scorer like Poland's Robert Lewandowski becomes a bad bet, since the Polish are unlikely to advance very deep into the field.

A good bet will have a combination of finishing ability, good teammates and under-valued odds. Here are the three best bets, and one dark horse, in the chase for The Golden Boot

Mario Gomez (GER) +900

The formerly disparaged Bayern Munich striker had a great season, both for his club team and for the Germans. Along with Netherlands' Robin Van Persie–the only person with better listed odds than him–Gomez was one of the only two players to score six goals in under 500 qualifying minutes.

Gomez is a better bet than Van Persie because the Germans are a safer bet to keep advancing than the Dutch. That doesn't necessarily mean they're better, just that they're less prone to upsets. The Golden Boot isn't awarded to the guy who averages the most goals per game; it's given to the guy who scores the most total goals. Ergo, your odds increase the more games you play. 

9/1 odds for the best scorer on a team that's a safe bet to move forward? Sign me up.

Fernando Llorente (ESP) +1600

Llorente, a 6'5'' striker, brings a rugged attitude to a Spain side that is traditionally known for attacking with panache. But he has fit right into the injured David Villa's spot, averaging 1.13 goals per 90 minutes during qualifying.

Fernando Torres has better odds than Llorente, but the latter has shown significantly better form, making him a better bet to lead the Spanish in scoring.

And like Germany, Spain is one of the safest best to keep playing deep into the tournament, giving him extra opportunities to score.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic (SWE) +4000

The Swedish were impressive during qualifying, finishing with more points than any other group runner-up, and thus automatically making the field without a playoff. They finished their group closely behind Netherlands, whom they beat 3-2 in their second qualifying meeting.

The Swedes can score, and they run their offense like Chazz Michael Michaels: through one man, and one man only. That man is Ibrahimovic, their veteran captain. Ibrahimovic took 34 shots in qualifying, trailing only Cristiano Ronaldo and David Villa.

The Swedes could be the sleeper of the tournament, and if they advance they'll advance on the strength of Ibrahimovic's deft scoring touch.

If you played this tournament out 40 times, he would win the Golden Boot multiple times. That, by definition, makes his 40/1 odds a good value.

Dark Horse: Robbie Keane (IRE) +15000

The Irish come into the Euros with vengeance on their mind. After being cheated out of a 2010 World Cup spot by Thierry Henry's "Hand of God," they want to make their return to top-flight international soccer a memorable one.

Keane scored seven goals in qualifying–five more than any other Irish player–which makes him a safe bet to lead them at the Euros. They have a tough, but winnable draw against Spain, Italy and Croatia. If they sneak into the second spot and advance, they would play France, England or Sweden.

It's hard to see them going much further than the quarterfinals, but Keane might score every single one of their goals along the way. He's got 150/1 odds, for God's sake. It might be fun to make a small bet and let this one ride.