Georges St. Pierre Needs to Beat Thiago Alves

His last fight was billed as the biggest fight in mixed martial arts history, but it is this upcoming bout with Thiago Alves that will end up saying more about the legacy of Georges St. Pierre.

Since St. Pierre's victory over BJ Penn, allegations have surfaced that have unfortunately tainted what should have been the crowning achievement in his career.

Furthermore, despite showing superior skills and tactics, St. Pierre's detractors will be quick to wrongly attribute the victory to nothing more than a weight advantage.

Although many people recognize the magnitude of St. Pierre's achievements, this won't be enough if he loses his next bout.

All factors are pointing to St. Pierre fighting Alves at UFC 100.  The timing is right, and given the other titles on the line in the upcoming UFC cards, the UFC will be looking for a big fight to headline what Dana White has promised will be an historic and epic event.

Given the magnitude of the event, and the massive exposure and popularity Georges St. Pierre has gained due to his stomping of BJ Penn, it is clear that all eyes will be watching Georges' next fight.

Before St. Pierre's last fight, I was confident that GSP would be able to use his dynamic attack to neutralize BJ's offence, and grind out an opponent with inferior size and wrestling. 

And although I did not believe that the fight would be quite as lopsided as it was, it seemed clear to me that GSP would have a definitive advantage.

In his upcoming match, his advantage is much less clear.  In fact, I believe this fight will be the most challenging of his career.

If you look at GSP's past fights, you may notice that he has been consistently matched up against people coming from a grappling background.  Trigg, Fitch, Koscheck, Sherk, Hughes, Parisyan, Miller, Hieron, and Penn all rely on grappling and the threat of takedowns to employ their gameplan.

While the fights played out in many different ways, the fact that Georges St. Pierre was better at their strengths surely proved to be a major factor in those outcomes.

Thiago Alves is not like any of St. Pierre's previous opponents.  While he has recently developed incredible takedown defense and is also a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, he is at heart a Muay Thai fighter.

To spell out the challenges more clearly, here's what Alves has to offer:

1. Alves is bigger than any of GSP's previous opponents.  He dehydrates heavily, and in his most recent fight, it is rumored that he came into the Octagon weighing nearly 200 pounds!  For the first time in GSP's career, he will be significantly outsized.

This could be a major factor in clinching and wrestling situations.  Josh Koscheck, an NCAA Division I champion, was not able to take down Alves in their fight.

2. Alves has better and more dynamic striking than any of GSP's previous opponents.  If you look at GSP's previous opponents, you'll quickly see that he has never faced a pure striker like Alves.

Jon Fitch has perhaps the most diversified striking of any of GSP's previous opponents, but despite being extremely tough, GSP simply does everything slightly better than Fitch.

One could make the argument that BJ Penn and Josh Koscheck are better boxers than GSP, but not better strikers overall.  Despite having great hands, neither of these fighters has the diversity of strikes to compare with GSP.

Alves has decent boxing, superior kicks, and devastating knees.

Despite all of these things, I think GSP still has a great shot of winning.  In order to win, he'll need to make effective use of his reach advantage to pick apart Alves from the outside.

Usually, GSP absorbs leg kicks, and returns with counter right straights.  Against Alves, who has devastating and extremely fast kicks, I am not sure if this will be possible.

What is clear is that the way GSP deals with these kicks will be important in determining the outcome.

I think the threat of takedowns will be enough for GSP to do better than expected on the feet.

GSP will need to be careful to avoid knees on his takedowns, but I believe he will do this well enough to find a way to take the fight to the ground, and ultimately win.

However, it seems clear to me that this challenge will be the toughest yet for GSP.

And the stakes have never been higher.