2012 NBA Mock Draft: Teams Guaranteed to Reach Horribly in 1st Round

There are no guarantees when investing millions of dollars in 18-, 19- and 20-year-old kids.

Thus, reaching for a prospect in the NBA draft is an insanely dangerous venture, and yet it still happens year after year.

The 2012 class is deep on talent, but has just as many question marks. It wouldn't be surprising at all if nearly 10 All-Stars came out of this first round, but it also wouldn't be surprising if a number of them failed to live up to expectations.

Here's a look at which teams are guaranteed to reach in the first round of this year's draft.

1. New Orleans Hornets (21-45): Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky

No reaching here—Davis is hands down the top player in the draft and will play like it immediately.

2. Charlotte Bobcats (7-59): Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

You could argue that Beal is a bit of reach here, but he does have superstar potential and fills the Bobcats' biggest need.

3. Washington Wizards (20-46): Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky

This is match made in heaven. MKG will become a superstar if he winds up in Washington running with John Wall.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers (21-45): Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

Like MKG, Barnes would benefit greatly from playing alongside an elite point guard in Kyrie Irving. The UNC forward could be a superstar in this system. 

5. Sacramento Kings (22-44): Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

Robinson has fallen down the board some since the national championship game, but he's a solid all-around player who helps this team immediately.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (via 22-44 New Jersey Nets): Andre Drummond, C, UConn

Reach and bust alert: the Blazers have two lottery picks and that means they're likely to take a chance with one of them. If Drummond is still on the board at No. 6, they won't hesitate to select him, and in terms of draft value this isn't technically a reach, but he's arguably the most overhyped player in the entire class.

The Blazers will struggle to get any production out of the big man early in his career. It would honestly be a surprise if they found a way to develop him at all. 

7. Golden State Warriors (23-43): Perry Jones III, PF, Baylor

PJIII's upside outweighs his negatives, but he's a reach anywhere in the top 10. He talent level is incredible, but he doesn't always play up to his potential and there are times when he shrinks away from the situation.

Golden State is looking for a potential superstar to build on going into the future (assuming they keep this pick) and at this spot in the draft, they may have to take a risk to find it.

Don't be surprised at all if another team moves up and reaches for someone here. 

8. Toronto Raptors (23-43):  Austin Rivers, SG, Duke

The Raptors need someone who can score the basketball consistently, but someone who could also potentially become a star.

Rivers isn't necessarily the most consistent of scorers, but he has superstar potential and a clutch gene that cannot be taught.

Toronto will get the opportunity to jump on a scorer, but they may reach for it should Barnes be gone. It may be Rivers, or it could even be Dion Waiters or Terrence Ross.

9. Detroit Pistons (25-41): Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State

The Pistons should find great value for a big man alongside Greg Monroe with this pick.

10. New Orleans Hornets (via 26-40 Minnesota Timberwolves): Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina

After landing the best player in the entire draft at No. 1, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the Hornets reach for a position they need here—and they need a player at almost every position.

Marshall may not be true top-10 pick material, but reaching for him here gives them the best pure point guard in the draft.

11. Portland Trail Blazers (28-38):  Terrence Jones, F, Kentucky

As seen at No. 6, the Blazers have the luxury of reaching at least once, but they could easily reach twice. Jones, however, has a ton of potential.

12. Milwaukee Bucks (31-35): Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina

No reaching here, as this is actually a perfect fit for both player and team.

13. Phoenix Suns (33-33): Damian Lillard, G, Weber State

Lillard is actually a good value pick for this team regardless of what happens with Steven Nash this offseason. The combo-guard can score the basketball, but will have to develop as a passer.

14. Houston Rockets (34-32): Terrence Ross, G, Washington

This will be a steal for the Rockets; he's a sleeper candidate for Rookie of the Year.

15. Philadelphia 76ers (35-31): John Henson, PF, North Carolina

Another perfect fit for player and team, Henson will help the 76ers get younger immediately at a position of need.

16. Houston Rockets (via 36-20 New York Knicks): Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois

Although Leonard has a ton of developing still to do, he's a genuine seven-footer and fills a huge need for the Rockets.

17. Dallas Mavericks (36-30):  Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor

The Mavs won't have to reach at this spot as they'll be lucky enough to see someone super talented fall into their laps.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (via 36-30 Utah Jazz): Jeremy Lamb, SG, UConn

Much of the same goes for Minnesota here. With teams reaching on potential-laden players early on, the teams in the latter stage of the draft will benefit from falling stars.

19. Orlando Magic (37-29): Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse

This selection might be the steal of the draft; don't expect Waiters to be on the board this late.

20. Denver Nuggets (38-28): Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's

Harkless is a do-everything guy with great upside. The Nuggets have no pressing needs and could reach if they wanted to, but Harkless is too big a value here.

21. Boston Celtics (39-27):  Royce White, PF, Iowa State

The Celtics will start retooling with these back-to-back picks. Skilled big men are hands down their biggest need—don't be surprised if they use both picks on such players.

22. Boston Celtics (via 40-26 Los Angeles Clippers): Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure

Again, both picks on skilled big men.

23. Atlanta Hawks (40-26): Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State

This is huge value here for the Hawks. Moultrie showed a complete game this season and could go as high as No. 9.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers (via 41-25 Los Angeles Lakers):  Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky

The title game hero, Doron Lamb is proven scorer the Cavs can work with and is far from a reach at this spot.

25. Memphis Grizzlies (41-25): Tony Wroten, PG/SG, Washington

Wroten has a ton of skill, but is a me-first guy with a busted shot. Some people think he belongs higher in the draft, but the most he can ask for early is a back-up job as he develops a more team-first mentality.

26. Indiana Pacers (42-24):  Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky

A young, developmental point guard, Teague fits into exactly what the Pacers are looking for at this pick.

27. Miami Heat (46-20): Fab Melo, C, Syracuse

The troubled big man isn't necessarily a reach, but he's a long shot to be a consistent contributor here. However, should he put it together, he's exactly what the Heat need.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder (47-19): Draymond Green, SF, Michigan State

A total do-everything player, Green fits in well for a team that doesn't have a ton of glaring needs.

29. Chicago Bulls (50-16): John Jenkins, SG, Vanderbilt 

This is arguably one of the best fits in the draft. Jenkins, a pure shooter, is a perfect potential replacement for Rip Hamilton.

30. Golden State Warriors (via 50-16 San Antonio Spurs): Jeffery Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt

The Warriors can do a number of things here, but Taylor provides arguably the best value at this spot.