Can the San Francisco Giants Survive If Melky Cabrera Starts to Cool Off?

Once Melky Cabrera's hits start winding up in the infielders' gloves more often than finding holes in the defense, will the San Francisco Giants be able to remain in contention?

First off, I'm not saying that Cabrera's month of May was a fluke. In fact, I want to take a second and truly appreciate what Cabrera was able to accomplish at the plate this season. If I also decided to acknowledge how he's helped this team both in the field and on the basepaths as well, then I'd be up all night writing and you'd be sitting at the computer reading this article for much longer than the normal attention span would allow.

Cabrera had 51 hits in the month of May. That's an average of 1.75 hits per game. He compiled 16 multi-hit games—including four three-hit games and three four-hit games. And the most impressive part about it was that 51 hits in a single month tied the most ever by a Giant in franchise history. Randy Winn had 51 knocks in September of 2005 and Willie Mays—the record holder before Winn—had 49 in 1958.

He also had a batting average of .429 during that 29-game span, and it was good enough to give him the highest batting average in the NL at .373.

There. I paid my respect. Ideally, Cabrera deserves an entire article to pay homage to his accomplishments this season, but I'm going to take a different route.

What will happen to the Giants offense when Cabrera finally cools off?

First, I'll explain why Cabrera is likely to cool off in the first place.

The obvious answer is that it's baseball. Players get hot and start hitting the ball hard. And when hot hitters don't hit the ball hard, the ball still manages to find holes in the defense like in no-man's land (the outfield area between the infielders and the outfielders).

Then, players eventually get cold. Hitters rarely hit the ball hard during these stretches; but when they do, the ball happens to be hit right at the fielders. Baseball players go through cycles like this all season long. That's how baseball works now, and it's how it has worked ever since its existence.

But the more factual response would be to look at his BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Cabrera's is .413 at the moment, which is the fourth-highest in the majors behind Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Paul Konerko and David Wright.

As it does vary from year to year, generally the league average is around .300. If this is the case, you can argue that Cabrera has been lucky to a certain extent this season. Cabrera does have a high line-drive percentage of 22.1 percent, but he also has an extremely high ground ball percentage of 54.1 percent. A lot of Cabrera's hits this year have been ground balls that happened to find holes in the infield.

Although, it's hard to fault Cabrera for this because he's doing what your Little League coach always told you do to: put the ball in play and good things will happen. Well, sometimes, at least. My point is that Cabrera's BABIP is abnormally high, and it will likely begin to decline as the season progresses.

With that said, if Cabrera were to hypothetically cool off, what would the Giants offense be able to generate enough runs to support the pitching staff?

The short answer would be yes, and here's why.

First of all, and most obviously, Pablo Sandoval will be making his way back to the lineup within the next couple of weeks. Bruce Bochy said that Sandoval will begin taking batting practice next week, which means he is right on track to return on schedule.

So how would a fair lineup with a healthy Sandoval and a struggling Cabrera batting in the middle of the order?

Well, we can use the games between April 14-24 as a sample, because it was a stretch when Cabrera went 7-for-34, or a batting average of only .201.

As it turns out, the Giants went 6-4 during that stretch, and they also scored an average of 4.1 runs per game. In fact, that's more than the Giants offense has scored per game this year—albeit it's only 0.1 more runs per game.

Other factors you have to calculate into this example is the emergence of other players who have begun to swing a hot bat.

Most notably is Gregor Blanco, who has made it easier for for fans to finally get over the loss of the 2010 version of Andres Torres.

Blanco is the best leadoff hitter that this team has had for decades, as he's exactly what you want from a guy batting atop the order. He's fast, patient at the plate and will find a way to get on base at all costs. His is on-base percentage of .401 this season backs it up. The Giants haven't had a leadoff hitter like that since, well, I don't even know.

Another player who has stepped up lately is Angel Pagan, who very quietly had 39 hits during May, which was the fourth-most in the NL.

And when Sandoval returns to the lineup, Pagan will likely be moved up to the No. 2 hole in front of Cabrera. This will result in Cabrera having more chances to hit with runners on base, which means better pitches to hit—especially with Sandoval and Buster Posey lurking on the on-deck circle and in the hole.

Speaking of Posey, he's another player who has reestablished himself as one of the premier hitters in the league. Say goodbye to all uncertainly about whether or not Posey could return from that malicious collision at the plate last year. He currently owns a .294 batting average with six home runs and 27 RBI. He's leaps and bounds ahead of what everyone expected him to do this year, and his numbers will only continue to get better as he gains more confidence in his injured ankle and leg.

So with Blanco and Pagan batting in front of Cabrera, and Sandoval and Posey batting behind him, Cabrera will have plenty of talent around him to help carry the load if he happens to cool off. Don't forget we're talking about the Giants starting rotation, which is still a top-five rotation in the league even without its ace—Tim Lincecum—pitching like his normal self. They don't need the offense to score a ton of runs for them.

Also, don't write off Brandon Belt quite yet. He's only in his third season of pro ball, mind you. Most players with the same amount of experience in pro baseball are still trying to figure things out in the minor leagues.

If the Giants could get any production out of Belt, or any of the first baseman on the roster for that matter, this offense will be able to put some runs on the board more so than they have in the past couple of seasons.

For all we know, Cabrera can continue on this pace for the rest of the season and break all sorts of records. I'm not say that he will, but I wouldn't put any money on it, either. Batting averages drastically fluctuate throughout the year, as that is just part of baseball.

But even if Cabrera happens to come down to earth, the Giants have enough hitters in the lineup to make a serious run at the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West this summer.

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