Could the NFL Handle Another Expansion?

CraytonFeb 5, 2009

What makes a 32-team NFL so great?

What is the one thing preventing the NFL from expanding from their current 32-team, 16-game model? The fact that it works so darned good.

Teams are divided into two historical conferences with four divisions per conference. Each team plays its division rivals twice (six games), (half) six of the remaining 12 teams in its conference, and (a fourth) four of the 16 teams in the other conference every year.

If you were to add a 33rd or even up to a 36th team you would ruin the current symmetry of the NFL schedule. Let us look at the two greatest strengths of the current schedule:

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1. Division Rivalries

The tradition of playing a home and home against each team in your division is maintained. This has proved very conducive for rivalries, even when the cities are far away (see Dallas and Washington).

2. Every team plays each other

When was the last time the Buccaneers played in Buffalo? Trick question they never have. Under the current format teams from opposing conferences now play each other once every four years. The Bills played in Tampa in 2005 and finally the Bucs will play in Buffalo in 2009 (unless the game is moved to Toronto).

So how does the league go about expansion without sending the schedule into the wood chipper?

Unfortunately it would require realignment. Three conferences of 11 teams with each conference able to expand to 12, independent of the others. The initial schedule would be playing 10 games in conference and three games against each of the other conferences.

This preserves the notion of playing every team about every four years, but what about division rivals?

Let us look at an example from the new Northern Conference. Because each conference will eventually expand to 12 teams, the future model will be three divisions of four in each conference. While there are only 11 teams, there will be an uneven alignment of a division of four and a division of seven.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

**American Division**

Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

**West Division**

Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans
Los Angeles
New Orleans Saints
St. Louis Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks

Teams within the American Division will play each other twice, as normal, and will play four of the other seven teams in the West Division. Teams in the West division will play each other once and there will be six games left over to be played amongst the West Division teams.

These six games can be spread amongst the teams so that home and home rivalries change annually, or teams can be paired in two groups of three with the seventh team playing every team once.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(American) play each other twice, one other division once and the Seahawks

Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

(Pacific) play each other twice, Midwest Division once, half of the American Division and the Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles
San Francisco 49ers

(Midwest) play each other twice, Pacific Division once, half of the American Division and the Seahawks

Houston Texans
New Orleans Saints
St. Louis Rams

(no division) play all 10 conference teams once

Seattle Seahawks

In this example a 12th team added to the conference would allow it to be split into three even divisions of four, as Seattle would move to either the Pacific or Midwest division and the 12th team would go to the other.

What is after 33 teams?

A 34th team, of course. And if the League does move to a 34th team then the 17- and 18-game schedules become possibilities. Once 36 teams are active then teams play six games in-division plus (half) four of the eight remaining in-conference teams and one fourth (third, if jumping to 18 game schedules) of out of conference teams. Each of these ratios is identical to the current standards.

The playoffs would need to be altered. As the old conferences are tossed in favor of keeping division rivalries, the playoffs are also reformed. Part of this includes adding one more team to the playoffs. Because there are an odd number of conferences, teams might play inter-conference games and wild cards are not restricted per conference. (Anyone think 11-5 New England deserved a spot before 9-6-1 Philadelphia?)

The top team from each conference gets a bye. Next the three division leaders from each conference are guaranteed a spot (in an 11 team conferences the third division leader is the second place team from the division of seven).

Finally, the top four wild card teams (equaling 13 total teams) regardless of conference are given a spot. The number of playoff teams will not be even among the conferences. Here is an example playoff using this year's standings.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Arizona *bye
2. San Diego
3. New Orleans

NORTHERN CONFERENCE

1. Indianapolis *bye
2. Pittsburgh
3. Minnesota
4. Miami (wild card)
5. New England (wild card)

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE

1. Tennessee *bye
2. NY Giants
3. Carolina
4. Baltimore (wild card)
5. Atlanta (wild card)

The top team in each conference without a bye plays the bottom team. In any round if two conferences have an odd number of participants then the middle ranked team of those two conferences play against each other. The division winner or team with a better record is given home field advantage for every game.

Mixed games will always be scheduled earliest on a weekend so that it can be determined if a later game is matching the final two teams from a conference or not. This helps determine clear cut conference champions.

One of the worst division "winners" will end up not hosting a game, in this example that is New Orleans.

First Round

West Wild Card New Orleans @ *San Diego
North Wild Card New England @ *Pittsburgh
North Wild Card *Miami @ Minnesota
South Wild Card Atlanta @ *NY Giants
South Wild Card *Baltimore @ Carolina

Second Round

Mixed Divisional *Pittsburgh @ NY Giants
West Final San Diego @ *Arizona
North Divisional Miami @ *Indianapolis
South Final *Baltimore @ Tennessee

Third Round

Mixed Final Baltimore @ *Arizona
North Final *Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

Super Bowl

*Pittsburgh vs. Arizona @ Tampa

Here are the full divisions of the 33-team NFL. Miami and Dallas are geographic outliers that have been placed in their divisions based on traditional rivalries. Teams maintain their current NFC/AFC affiliations only for the purpose of the Pro Bowl, another nod back to tradition.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

**American Division**

Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

**West Division**

Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans
Los Angeles
New Orleans Saints
St. Louis Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks

NORTHERN CONFERENCE

**Central Division**

Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings

**Northeast Division**

Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers

SOUTHERN CONFERNCE

**Atlantic Division**

Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins