Auburn Football: Why October Will Make or Break Tigers Season

When the 2012 schedule was formalized for Auburn football, it was apparent that the Tigers had a lineup that was manageable. The one month that does have the chance to make or break the Tigers' season is October. 

Auburn will play only five road games this fall, with one being a neutral site game to start the season in the Georgia Dome. The Tigers face two of the five road games in October, with the contests coming back to back. 

The Tigers will also face off against new conference foe Texas A&M to round out the end of the month. With the most dangerous stretch of the schedule embedded in the heart of October and a bad month killing SEC title hopes, it’s easy to see how October can make or break the Tigers season.

Four Consecutive Conference Games

In the SEC, every week is a grind against some of the best talent in the country. When there is a stretch of five games that are consecutively against SEC foes, it is tough to make it through unscathed. 

The Tigers finish September with a home game against LSU, take a bye week and then host Arkansas. The next three games for Auburn are at Ole Miss, at Vanderbilt and home against Texas A&M.

That is a tough stretch for any team, but the Tigers do benefit by hosting three of the five games. Even if the Tigers hosted all five, it is not an ideal situation. 

October will be a difficult month for the Tigers.

Toughest Road Stretch of the Season

I know what you’re thinking. The toughest road stretch of the season is against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt? Fortunately for Auburn, it is. 

Not that either game will be a pushover as they are sandwiched in between some major showdowns with Arkansas and Texas A&M. Ole Miss will begin the Hugh Freeze era and Vanderbilt will be in the second season under James Franklin. 

After all, it was Franklin that was ranked higher than Gene Chizik in a recent Athlon Sports ranking of the SEC coaches. That seems a bit absurd considering Chizik’s four consecutive bowl wins, an SEC title and a BCS National Championship.

All jokes aside, the Tigers will have a tough stretch on the road with back-to-back games, as both Vanderbilt and Ole Miss look to be on the upswing. 

Depth Chart Has to Be Settled

Auburn will open fall camp with key position battles across the offense and defense. Some may head into the first few games where real-time tryouts are needed. 

The Tigers will be four games into the season with two SEC contests behind them when the October schedule begins. The last game in September will be a huge game as Auburn hosts LSU. 

Auburn will ride a bye week through the first week of October before hosting Arkansas. By Week 6 of the season, Auburn should have a solid lineup of consistent contributors at every position. 

If the Tigers are stumbling into October, the month will be even more crucial to the season.

Three SEC West Matchups

Auburn will face five of its six SEC matchups in the first two months of the season. Three land in the month of October. 

The Tigers have a manageable enough schedule that Western Division aspirations will be a part of the October plan. With three crucial division games on the docket, the Tigers have a must-win scenario that falls over the month of October. 

The Tigers are talented enough to contend for championships, but questions at key positions keep pundits away. If the Tigers depth is settled, and they win these three SEC West games, they will be in the discussion heading into the final game of the season. 

Any October Loss Will Kill SEC West Hopes

If Auburn makes it out of the first four weeks of the season 3-1, they will have pushed through every expectation set forth before the season. A 4-0 start seems like a dream, but as was the entire 2010 season, week after week.

Even if Auburn does escape the first month of the season unscathed, the month of October will be a gauntlet that must be ran successfully. With three division games and back-to-back road contests on the docket, the Tigers will be facing very tall odds.

With Auburn looking to be a part of an assumed four-team Western Division race, losing any game in October would immediately place the Tigers in the passenger seat in the division.

The Tigers Are 5-1 Under Chizik During October in Jordan-Hare

Sometimes it’s fun to bring stats to the table. Here is one for the good guys. 

Chizik is 5-1 in Jordan-Hare during the month of October. Not a bad showing for the Tigers under Chizik’s guidance. Chizik’s overall record at Auburn in October is 10-5. 

With Auburn facing a rebuilding Ole Miss and consistently inconsistent Vanderbilt on the road this October, both the away and home games look to be in the Tigers favor.

If Auburn can use statistical mojo this October, it will emerge victorious at home. Add to that the assumed low intensity of the away games, and Auburn has a recipe for success for the heart of the 2012 schedule. 

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