NBA Playoff Schedule 2012: Predictions for Each Game 2 Matchup
In Game 1 of both Conference Finals matchups, everything went how we were expecting. Sort of. The same will happen in Game 2.
Let's take a look why.
Note: For a complete look at the playoff schedule, click here.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
So let me get this straight. The Spurs hit just 33.3 percent of their three-point attempts (compared to 41.1 percent in the playoffs and 39.3 percent in the regular season), they turned the ball over 16 times, they trailed by nine heading into the fourth quarter and they still won?
Granted, there are a few ways to look at that.
You could say the Thunder now have the blueprint for beating the Spurs, or you could say OKC played just as bad (13 turnovers, James Harden wasn't his normal self) and still only lost by three.
Still, this is just what the Spurs do.
Even though Oklahoma City bothered them with their length and ability to get into the passing lanes, San Antonio still managed an assist percentage of 22, just off its playoff pace of 24.
When they weren't making silly passes, the Spurs were still incredibly effective at what they do best: getting into the lane, kicking the ball out and swinging it for the open shot. They just didn't knock down their open shots like they usually do.
For example, Danny Green in spot-up situations is one of the most efficient shots the Spurs can get, but he was zero-of-six from the field and zero-of-five from three-point range.
That won't happen again. Neither will the turnovers.
On the other side of the ball, the Thunder will likely improve in certain aspects of the game as well.
James Harden is easily Oklahoma City's most efficient player on offense, both in isolation and off the pick-and-roll.
He looked asleep in Game 1, and if the Thunder are smart, they'll get him more involved in better situations in Game 2. They can't rely on Derek Fisher's biceps to pour in 13 points every game.
Essentially, both teams are going to be much better in Game 2. As both improve, however, the better and deeper team will again come out with the win. That's the San Antonio Spurs.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
The Celtics are in real trouble.
During the regular season, Avery Bradley turned himself into the Dwyane Wade stopper. But now that he's out, Rajon Rondo is being forced to match up with Wade.
Miami's other star, LeBron James, doesn't look like he's going to be slowed down in this series, either. Paul Pierce has the strength to guard LeBron, but he doesn't have the speed or quickness to stay in front of him when James gets a head of steam.
Because of those favorable matchups, James and Wade combined for 54 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists in Game 1. When they are able to roll like that, all they need is for one or two role players to have a decent game, and it's over.
My solution to Boston, besides praying, is this:
Play zone.
The zone hardly ever works in the NBA, and when the Celtics went to it in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Heat found its holes and got open shots.
But you know what? They missed those open shots.
And at this point, with an unhealthy Paul Pierce, an even more unhealthy Ray Allen, and a tired-looking Kevin Garnett, the Celtics need to play the odds.
They would have a much better chance at winning if they simply gave up open three-pointers to Shane Battier, Mike Miller and Mario Chalmers instead of giving up open lanes to LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.
The Heat shot an anemic 20 percent from long range in Game 1, and while they won't be that bad again, the Celtics should take their chances.
Still, that's a last-ditch effort, and there is no way I'm betting against Miami's fearsome twosome with the way they are playing.
The Heat will take a 2-0 series lead.





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