NBA Draft Lottery 2012: 25 Predictions for the Top 25 Prospects and Picks

The 2012 NBA Draft Lottery will tell fans where all the NBA's teams will pick in the draft and give some insight into where prospects will land next season.

Usually, there are some big surprises: In 2008, Chicago won the lottery with less than a two percent chance and drafted Derrick Rose; last year, the Cleveland Cavaliers surprised the Los Angeles Clippers by turning their throw-in deadline-trade pick into the first overall selection. 

So, leading up to the big lottery, here are 25 predictions for the top 25 prospects and picks for the 2012 NBA draft.

Anthony Davis Will Go No. 1 Overall

This one was easy. Davis is easily the best prospect in this class: a big power forward with a guard's touch, insane length and athleticism and the upside of Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett.

He has a Hall of Fame career ahead of him if injuries don't get in the way.  

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Will Become a Better Version of Gerald Wallace

Kidd-Gilchrist looks a lot like Gerald "Crash" Wallace. Like the former Charlotte Bobcats star, Kidd-Gilchrist is a big, athletic forward who can play both the 3 and 4 spots and thrives on a mix of mid-range offense and ferocious defense.

But Gilchrist will be even better than Wallace because he does not seem injury prone and has some of the best winning intangibles of any draft pick in recent history.  

Brad Beal Will Be a Top-5 Pick

Beal gets less press than Kidd-Gilchrist and Davis, but after them, he is the closest thing to a "sure bet" in this draft. Beal has prototypical shooting guard size and skills: He is 6'3" and athletic and can shoot the lights out. He also has solid intangibles and is learning how to defend in man situations.

He really reminds me of a young Eric Gordon and has the talent to be an All-Star.  

Thomas Robinson Will Fall out of the Top Five Picks

This will not be a popular prediction with Kansas fans. Robinson is a good player and he is a sure-fire top-10 pick. However, he does not have the upside that many teams want to draft in the top five.

Robinson can score and is a beast on the boards, which will make him a starter, but he is only 6'9" and may not have the size and power to flat-out dominate in the NBA.

Right now, Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Brad Beal look like more sure bets than Robinson while Harrison Barnes, Andre Drummond, Perry Jones and Dion Waiters all have more upside.  

Andre Drummond Will Be a Bust If He Is Drafted Too High

Drummond has more upside than anyone in this draft (outside of Davis) because he looks like Dwight Howard. He has every tool in the box.

But he is also raw, has not demonstrated a high basketball IQ, did not dominate in college and lacks NBA skills. He needs to fall and go to a well-run organization that has the patience to develop him slowly and make him a star.  

Harrison Barnes Will Be the Next Danny Granger

Barnes already knows how to shoot from both mid and long range and drive to the basket. He has great skills and will be an NBA starter on a good team.

What is unclear is whether he has the intangible killer instinct and drive to use his skills to become a superstar. That will determine whether he becomes the next Danny Granger or the next Paul Pierce.  

Perry Jones Is the Biggest Enigma of the Draft

Simply put, Jones is a wild card. He has all the tools and skills to be a star: Jones is nearly 6'11", has a long, athletic frame, can shoot the ball from anywhere and runs like a guard. But he often plays with a low motor and does not always seem to have it in him to become an All-Star player.

So, is he Kevin Garnett or Andray Blatche? If he is drafted by a well-run, patient organization, then he has a great chance to become a star. But if he is thrown into the fire early, then he could be a big bust.  

Dion Waiters Will Be a Poor Man's Dwyane Wade

Waiters is fast becoming a favorite of NBA scouts. While he is a bit small for a shooting guard, he displays the best pure scoring skills of any guard in the draft. He is a also a sneaky good ball-handler and passer, which could be what elevates his game in the pros.  

When comparing to Waiters to other guards in this draft, he looks particularly intriguing. Bradley Beal is a better shooter, but Waiters is the more aggressive scorer who is able to use his first step to blow past his opponent and score at will.

Like Tyreke Evans, he has a lot of Dwyane Wade in his game.  

Jeremy Lamb Will Make the Team That Drafts Him Very Happy One Day

Lamb is one of those prospects who stands out. When watching him, it's easy to stop and just say, "Wait, this guy has everything."

Lamb can score, is becoming a better shooter and already has the lanky body and skills to be a great defender. If he continues to develop, he will become one of those very rare two-way stars that NBA teams prize so highly. 

Tyler Zeller Will Be a Solid Starter

If there is one word to describe Zeller, it's "solid." After four years at North Carolina, Zeller has all the skills an offensive center needs to thrive in the NBA. He can knock down mid-range shots, has good rebounding technique and can pass. What he lacks are elite speed, length, hops and athleticism.

In short, he is the second coming of Brad Miller.  

Jared Sullinger Will Be a Poor Man's Paul Millsap

Sullinger is a very skilled, polished power forward who will be an NBA starter, but not a star. He reached his ceiling in college as a 17-point, 10-rebound starter who led Ohio State deep into the NCAA tournament.

He likely will not reach those numbers as a professional because he is undersized at 6'8" and lacks elite athleticism, but he has the ability to produce an efficient near-double-double each night with starter's minutes.  

One NBA Team Will Reach for Damian Lilliard in the Top Eight Picks

Lilliard is the only point guard prospect in this draft who might have All-Star potential. Early in the season, he looked like a high-scoring combo guard, but since then, he has really improved his handles, passing and floor vision.

If Portland ends up with New Jersey's pick, watch out for Lilliard's name from the draft podium.

Terrence Ross Will Be Underrated

When you ignore his team's NIT results, which is a good idea considering that Washington was a dysfunctional mess last season, Ross looks like an elite prospect. He may be the second-best guard on the board after Bradley Beal.

He has great size (6'6") and a beautiful shooting stroke. He also knows how to defend very well for a young player. When you combine that with a work ethic that helped him improve from eight points per game as a freshman to 16 as a sophomore, you have a very underrated player.

Many teams will be interested in the mid-teens, but look out for the Chicago Bulls as a dark horse to move up and select him. 

Terrence Jones Will Be a Poor Man's Antoine Walker

Let's check off the boxes: He is a slightly undersized power forward who is very athletic and could be a low-post force but really prefers to fall in love with his three-point shot. Sound familiar?

Jones is a big-time talent with all the tools and skills, so if he is drafted in the mid-teens and given a defined role on an established roster, then he will thrive.  

John Henson Will Be Kevin Garnett Without the Offense

After years on top of prospect lists, Henson is falling under the radar in the lead-up to the draft. But he should not: Henson is the best big man defender in this draft after Anthony Davis. He is a real game-changer in the post because of his size, leaping and rebounding ability.

The Houston Rockets, who desperately need a big defensive player, will be eyeing him in the mid-teens. 

Austin Rivers Will Be a Star

Critics of Rivers say that he is a one-dimensional scorer who is undersized at 6'4" and overrated after playing at Duke. However, Rivers is in fact one of the most versatile offensive players in the draft: He has a great shot, a killer crossover move, a good first step, nice handles and a killer instinct.

Combined with his pedigree as Doc Rivers' son, how can you not think he will develop into a star?

Arnett Moultrie Will Start at Center in the NBA

Moultrie is a very interesting prospect to evaluate. He averaged 16 points and 10 rebounds with efficient field-goal and free-throw percentages, which shows he can produce with starter's minutes. He is also long, athletic and a great leaper with a big NBA body and 6'11" of height, which will tempt many teams to draft him in the late teens and try him out at center.

After all, in today's NBA, there are many combo and power forwards but few good centers who can produce and defend.  

Kendall Marshall Will Be a Surprisingly Effective Starting Point Guard

It's true that Marshall does not fit the profile of the modern All-Star point guard because he is not an elite athlete and he has no lateral quickness. But Marshall is special because he is, quite simply, the best pure passer in the draft and will instantly be one of the best passers in the NBA.

He is the type of point guard who will thrive on a developed team with very good outside shooters and a big man for him to feed the ball to inside. The Orlando Magic, who need to let Jameer Nelson go, come to mind.  

Meyers Leonard Will Bust out of the League

Meyers rings my B.J. Mullens alarm bell. He is a big-time talent, but he is very, very raw and does not have the skills to earn playing time in the NBA right now. He has to go to a team that is good enough to patiently develop him but not good enough to bury him on the bench.  

Quincy Miller Will Join Leonard on the Bust Wagon

Many very talented college players bust out of the pros because they declared too early. Miller fits in that category: He is a skilled player with shooting ability and athleticism, but he doesn't know whether he is a 3 or 4 yet, and he has a very inconsistent motor.

Those issues both stem from lack of experience, which will plague him in the NBA. That said, if he falls and goes to a patient team, then he may turn out fine.  

Moe Harkless Will Surprise Draft Evaluators

Harkless is a great example of why this draft class is deep. He flew under the radar at St. John's but has the size, athleticism and skills to be a classic NBA small forward.  

Tony Wroten Jr. Will Be Drafted in the Mid-Teens

There is just too much talent for him to fall all the way to the mid-20s. On talent alone, Wroten Jr. is a top-10 pick because he combines serious height for a point guard with great speed and athleticism.

But he does not really know how to be a point guard yet: His passing needs work, he always looks for his own shot and he turns the ball over way too much. He is a project, but the reward could be huge.  

Fab Melo Will Be a Disappointment

Melo is the definition of "overrated." He played at a big-time program and some team will draft him thinking that he will dominate in the pros. In reality, Melo is a defense-only player who lacks great basketball I.Q. and often plays out of shape.

It's not a recipe for stardom.  

Marquis Teague Will Be the Last Pick of the First Round

It's just a hunch, because Teague has lottery-type talent but he produced like a second-round pick or undrafted player in his one year at Kentucky.

Why he declared remains a mystery. Nonetheless, he is very quick and can both pass and score, so teams at the end of the first round will eye him with interest. 

Jeff Taylor Will Be the Best Value in the Draft

Taylor is one of the draft's best athletes. He also has a good basketball I.Q., valuable NCAA tournament experience and a very versatile, polished skill set.

If he falls to the 20s, Taylor will be the biggest value of the 2012 NBA draft.