Preakness 2012: I'll Have Another's Comeback Skills Won't Work at Belmont Stakes

I'll Have Another has had quite a flare for the dramatic at the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, but that excitement will be the very thing that costs him the Belmont Stakes and a shot at immortality. 

When the build for the Kentucky Derby started, I'll Have Another was barely on the radar. His odds were okay, but not anything that would make you think he was going to do something noteworthy. Then, as the race was nearing its end, I'll Have Another made a late surge to get past Bodemeister and take the first leg of the Triple Crown. 

It was a thrilling finish to one of the most exciting Kentucky Derby races in a long time. The jury was still out on how "real" I'll Have Another was as a contender for the Preakness Stakes. 

What wound up happening at Pimlico Race Course was a little bit of history repeating, with I'll Have Another putting together a late charge down the stretch to steal victory from the jaws of Bodemeister. 

All of that drama has set the stage for the biggest Belmont Stakes since Big Brown was going for the Triple Crown in 2008. But I'll Have Another's late-race miracles are not going to be achievable on a track like the Belmont Stakes. 

Of the three Triple Crown races, the Belmont is easily the longest. It runs 1.5 miles (12 furlongs), whereas the Kentucky Derby is 10 furlongs and the Preakness is 9.5 furlongs. There is a certain style that has to be utilized in order to win the Belmont Stakes, making it different from the Derby and Preakness. That's why it has been 34 years since a horse has won the Triple Crown. 

I'll Have Another has to pace himself early, like he has been doing, but make sure that he does not run out of gas in the middle portion of the run. That is where horses have fallen apart in the past. The adrenaline gets going with all the pressure on these jockeys to lead the horse to victory, and they tend to lose their way when trying to hold on to the possibility of a win. 

Speed is important to winning any race, but in the Belmont Stakes stamina is the most critical element. We don't know how much stamina he has, because we haven't really seen him have to use it. He has been fortunate enough to hang in the middle of the pack before giving it his all down the stretch. 

Comebacks in sports are great, and everyone loves a good underdog story to root for. But at some point you have to prove that you are definitively better than everyone else if you want to win three races in a one-month stretch. 

I'll Have Another might be the best horse in the field, especially with Bodemeister not participating. He just can't afford another slow start in this race, because there are so many things that can go wrong--or right with another horse--with more track to utilize. 

If I'll Have Another hopes to become the first horse since Affirmed in 1978 to win the Triple Crown, he needs to make sure he doesn't give any of the other horses an opening to get ahead of him. 

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