Preakness Stakes 2012: Why I'll Have Another's Win Proves Nothing About Belmont

I'll Have Another's win at the Preakness 2012 was incredibly impressive and full of drama, but it proves nothing about his chances at the Belmont Stakes. 

Jockey Mario Gutierrez rode yet another brilliant race, and this underdog has everyone on his side hoping for a Triple Crown, but Belmont is not the Preakness. It will be a very different race, and making correlations between the two is simply wrong.

Let's take a look at why.

Belmont is Much Longer

The Preakness was only 1 3/16 miles and Belmont is 1 1/2 miles. For reference, the Kentucky Derby was 1 1/4 miles.

Why is this important?

Well, I'll Have Another has made a living sitting behind the early pace and then making a very late push for the victory, but it remains to be seen whether or not that will work on a longer track. 

I'll Have Another will have to hold on for much longer before making a push, and it will have to hold enough in the tank to actually make that final push effective. 

I'll Have Another's comeback style is going to be hard to keep up on a much longer track.

No Sprinter

At the Kentucky Derby, I'll Have Another had Bodemeister and Trinniberg to set the early pace. At the Preakness, he had Bodemeister once again. 

Without a sprinter of that caliber to set the pace at Belmont, what will happen to I'll Have Another? It could be beneficial if the slow pace let's him keep enough energy in the tank for a late push, but it could also hurt him if he gets out to an early lead and wastes valuable energy. 

I'll Have Another has raced two very similar races because the sprinters have directed the early action, but he won't benefit from that in New York.

Better Competition

At the Preakness, I'll Have Another really only had Bodemeister to worry about. At Belmont, he's going to have to worry about Union Rags and Dullahan, two horses better served for the long track in New York. 

Union Rags was miserable at the Kentucky Derby, but that's only because he had a poor post position and got bottled down at the beginning. People forget he still managed to impressively finish seventh after being in 19th for a long time.

If he gets a better post position, watch out. 

Additionally, check out Dullahan at the Kentucky Derby.

He's the horse on the outside making a similar ridiculous comeback. He ended up finishing third, but if the track was just a little bit longer, he would have passed I'll Have Another.

Well, the track in Belmont is a little bit longer, and that means Dullahan has a good chance at crushing Doug O'Neill's Triple Crown dreams. 

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