Preakness 2012: Last-Second Predictions from Around the Web

With the 2012 Preakness Stakes set to take place this afternoon, we run down some of the last-second predictions from around the web on who will finish first at Pimlico Race Track in Baltimore, Md. 

Bodemeister

Jay Cronley of ESPN picks Bodemesiter as a heavy favorite. He also thinks that, unlike the Kentucky Derby—where there are millions of different things that can happen—only one of two options will go down at Pimlico:

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Here, one of two things can happen: Bodemeister will again get an uncontested lead and will last, or his legs will turn rubbery and somebody like the Derby winner will swoop him.

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Bill Finley of ESPN also sees Bodemeister as a clear favorite. The three-year-old colt's performance at the Kentucky Derby was encouraging for Bodemeister's chances at the Preakness:

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It's hard to get past Bodemeister. The story of his Kentucky Derby performance doesn't necessarily need repeating, but here goes: He set ridiculously fast fractions yet was good enough to hold on for second. Faced with an adverse situation, he performed admirably. Before that, he was sensational when winning the Arkansas Derby. This is a talented animal and he's in the hands of Bob Baffert, who has won this race five times.

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Andrew Beyer of the Washington Post thinks Bodemeister will win the Preakness in impressive style. 

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Bodemeister ought to benefit from a perfect set-up in the Preakness. The defection of Hansen removed the most formidable other speed horse from the field. I’ll Have Another will probably try to put some pressure on Bodemeister, but Baffert’s colt figures to get a comfortable early lead — a huge advantage in any race....Bodemeister wins the Preakness in a runaway, with Creative Cause second and I’ll Have Another third.

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Mark Zinno of CBS Baltimore thinks Bodemeister will be the morning line favorite to win the Preakness, and predicts that either Bodemeister or I'll Have Another will win. 

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Despite his win in the Derby, I’ll Have Another will probably be the second favorite behind Bodemeister. The splits that Bodemeister ran in the Derby will have him as the favorite in a shorter rack and typically a faster track. I won’t be surprised to see a lot of money move on I’ll Have Another and possibly be the post time favorite. At least one of these two horses should finish in the money.

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I'll Have Another

While Bill Finley picked Bodemeister as the clear favorite (see link above), he wasn't prepared to rule out Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another. 

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That doesn't mean that I'll Have Another can't win. There was nothing fluky about his victory in the Kentucky Derby, where he was the only horse able to get past a dead tired Bodemeister. And while he figures to get a less favorable trip in the Preakness, he won't get a bad trip.

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Amanda Duckworth of ESPN doesn't deny that Bodemeister is a big favorite, but she won't look past the potential of I'll Have Another taking home the second leg of the Triple Crown.

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I firmly believe I'll Have Another is set to give him a run for his money, and it doesn't bother me that the Derby winner was not set as the Preakness favorite. After all, in six career starts, he has never gone off as the betting public's choice. In four of those races, he rewarded his believers by crossing the wire in front anyway.

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Creative Cause

The Baltimore Sun's pick guide for Saturday projects Creative Cause as a safe bet, over both Bodemeister and I'll Have Another. In terms of straight betting purposes, it's hard to disagree with the Sun.