College Basketball Rewind Feb. 2

Written by Chris Canada, Gatorsfirst.com Co-Founder

The week of Jan. 26 to Feb. 1 was pretty crazy. A lot of teams didn't play up to their potential, and there were a bunch of changes in the top 25. March Madness is now five weeks away, and teams have a ton to play for.

Remember, there are 65 spots available, comprised of 31 automatic bids to conference champions and 34 at-large bids. Here is a comprehensive look at the major leagues in Division-I (full rankings are current AP poll):

From the results that follow, I predict that at this point, 62 teams are safe, which includes 31 auto-bids and 31 at-large bids. This means that there are three remaining bids that will go to the "bubble" teams that I have listed.

Out of the 62 that I have found, 34 come from major conferences and 28 from minor ones. A lot can change over the next few weeks. (Upgrades are bolded, downgrades are italicized)

SEC (five)-

Projected Champion: No. 34 Florida (18-4, 5-2).

Should be in: No. 42t Kentucky (16-6, 5-2), Tennessee (13-7, 4-2), No. 31 South Carolina (16-4, 5-2), No. 30 LSU (17-4, 5-1).

Bubble: Mississippi St. (14-7, 4-2), Arkansas (13-6, 1-5).

Analysis: We start off with the SEC, as we should because this is a Gator site! Nick Calathes has been superb for the Gators. He had a triple-double this week against Georgia.

However, they took a step back with a loss at Tennessee. They may get exposed when they play big bodies down low. From the looks of it now, I believe that they will take the championship, but this league is really up for grabs!

After a slow non-conference start, the Kentucky Wildcats had blown through their early SEC schedule. That was up until this week, where they lost two games.

Tennessee's schedule has been brutal, and a 13-7 start is OK, especially with that win against Florida this weekend. LSU had two solid wins, as did South Carolina, and I moved them into the tourney.

As for the rest of the bubble teams, it's very unlikely they will make the tourney. Arkansas seemed like a lock with two big early season wins over Texas and Oklahoma, but four straight ugly losses have almost sealed their fate.
 

ACC (six)-

Projected Champion: No. 3 North Carolina (19-2, 5-2).

Should be in: No. 4 Duke (19-2, 6-1), No. 7 Wake Forest (17-2, 4-2), No. 10 Clemson (18-2, 4-2), No. 44t Florida St (16-5, 3-3), Boston College (17-6, 5-3).

Bubble: Miami (14-7, 3-5), Virginia Tech (14-7, 4-3), Maryland (14-7, 3-4).

Analysis: I believe this is the best conference in the country, when it comes to top talent. North Carolina, Duke, and Wake Forest all have legit chances to win the tourney, and I think they could beat a whole host of other teams.

Clemson is also 18-2 and very dangerous. This week had some major turns, as both Miami and VT lost twice. I now have them on the bubble. BC on the other hand won twice and they are now safely in.
 

Big East (seven)-

Projected Champion: No. 1 Connecticut (20-1, 9-1).

Should be in: No. 8 Marquette (19-2, 8-0), No. 5 Louisville (17-3, 8-0), No. 6 Pittsburgh (19-2, 7-2), No. 20 Syracuse (17-5, 5-4), No. 32 West Virginia (15-6, 4-4), No. 17 Villanova (17-4, 5-3).

Bubble: #35 Providence (14-7, 6-3), Cincinnati (14-8, 4-5), Georgetown (12-8, 3-6), #37 Notre Dame (12-8, 3-5).

Analysis: The Big East is definitely the toughest conference to play in, because it seems like you are playing a top 25 team every night. Pitt, UConn, and Louisville look to be the teams I see going deep in the tourney.

Marquette, Syracuse, WVU, and Nova will definitely make some waves. Georgetown and ND both lost twice this week. What is going on there? Their schedules have been absurd, but that still doesn't mean you can lose every game. As of now, they'll need to do some real hard work to get into the tourney. Providence is quietly hanging on though...
 

Big Ten-plus one (five)-

Projected Champion: No. 13 Michigan St (17-4, 7-2).

Should be in: No. 23 Illinois (18-4, 6-3), No. 12 Purdue (17-4, 6-2), No. 19 Minnesota (18-3, 6-3), No. 29 Penn St (17-5, 6-3).

Bubble: Michigan (14-8, 4-6), No. 40t Ohio St (15-5, 5-4), Wisconsin (12-9, 3-6), Northwestern (12-7, 4-5).

Analysis: Michigan St seems like the clear class of the league. There are some surprises however, as both Illinois and Minnesota have had a very strong start to the season.

Purdue, a preseason top 25 team, has also started off well, and seem poised to make a run in the tourney. A very surprising team to me is Penn St, which is usually a Big-10 doormat. They have started off 17-5, Including a win at Michigan St.

Ohio State has quietly won a few games in a row and is bolstering its chances at making the tourney. Northwestern is a team that plays tough in big games, and may get some love from the committee.

Michigan started off very well, including a win over No. 1 Duke. But a string of losses has all but sealed the fate of the Wolverines. Wisconsin is all but out.
 

Big 12 (six)-

Projected Champion: No. 2 Oklahoma (21-1, 7-0).

Should be in: No. 21 Kansas (17-4, 6-0), No. 28 Missouri (18-4, 5-2), No. 16 Texas (15-5, 4-2), Baylor (15-6, 3-4), Texas A&M (17-5, 3-4).

Bubble: No. 38t Kansas St (14-7, 3-4), Oklahoma St (13-7, 2-4).

Analysis: Oklahoma is the class of this league. Their one loss (@ Arkansas) seems like an aberration, as they seem to rip through the rest of their opponents. Kansas looks back to top form after losing a lot from last season's championship team.

Texas has some good wins and may be able to make it to the second weekend of the tourney. Baylor and Mizzou have shined so far, and have put themselves in a good shape heading down the stretch.

A&M started 14-1, and has fizzled early during conference play, but they look safe as of now. OK St probably will have to have some major wins to make it, especially after losing twice this week.
 

Pac-10 (five)-

Projected Champion: No. 15 UCLA (17-4, 7-2).

Should be in: No. 22 Washington (16-5, 7-2), No. 24 Arizona St (16-5, 5-4), California (16-6, 5-4), No. 36 USC (15-6, 6-3).

Bubble: No. 42t Arizona (14-8, 4-5).

Analysis: This seems like a down year for the Pac-10. There isn't a clear best team, but I think UCLA has the talent to stay on top. I don't see them reaching their third straight final four though.

Washington has been a real surprise (and are the Gators's biggest win so far). Arizona St is also a bit of a surprise under Coach Herb Sendik, but they lost both games this week. Cal has also been a surprise at well, but this week was rough for them, losing both games. USC was solid this week and as of now are secure.
 

Other Conferences (28)-

Projected Champions (threat teams): No. 9 Xavier (19-2, 7-0, Atlantic 10), No. 14 Memphis (18-3, 7-0, Conference USA), No. 11 Butler (19-1, 10-0, Horizon League), No. 44t Northern Iowa (16-6, 10-1, Missouri Valley), No. 33 UNLV (17-4, 5-2, Mountain West), No. 27 Davidson (18-3, 11-0, Southern), No. 25 Utah St (19-1, 7-0, Western Athletic), No. 18 Gonzaga (16-4, 7-0, West Coast).

Projected Champions (non-threat teams): Vermont (America East), E Tennessee St (Atlantic Sun), Weber State (Big Sky), No. 44t VMI (Big South), Long Beach St (Big West), VCU (Colonial Athletic), Cornell (Ivy League), No. 38t Siena (MAAC), Buffalo (Mid-American), Morgan St (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Morehead St(Ohio Valley), Holy Cross (Patriot League), Stephen F Austin (Southland), Alabama St (SWAC), North Dakota St (Summit League), Ark.–Little Rock (Sun Belt).

Should be in: No. 26 Dayton (20-2, 6-1, Atlantic 10), BYU (16-5, 4-3, Mountain West), St. Mary's (18-3, 5-2, West Coast).

Bubble: Temple (12-8, 4-2, Atlantic 10), St. Joseph's (12-8, 5-1, Atlantic 10), Duquesne (14-6, 5-2, Atlantic 10), Rhode Island (15-7, 4-3, Atlantic 10), No. 40t Northeastern (15-6, 10-1, Colonial Athletic), George Mason (15-6, 8-3, Colonial Athletic), UCF (15-6, 5-2, Conference USA), Tulsa (15-7, 5-2, Conference USA), UAB (14-8, 4-3, Conference USA), Green Bay (17-6, 9-2, Horizon), Illinois St (18-4, 7-4, Missouri Valley), Creighton (17-6, 7-4, Missouri Valley), Utah (14-7, 5-2, Mountain West), TCU (13-8, 4-3, Mountain West), San Diego St (15-5, 5-2, Mountain West), Portland (15-7, 6-1, West Coast), Boise St (15-6, 5-3, Western Athletic), Nevada (13-8, 6-2 Western Athletic).

Analysis: From the minor conferences, I have determined that 25 different conference champions and three at-large spots are safe right now.

I have broken the champions into two categories: the first will be those that should have a splash at the tourney, and the second are those in traditionally small conferences. The "threat teams" include five team currently ranked in the top 25, including Xavier, Memphis, Butler, Gonzaga, and Utah St.

The rest of those teams play in tougher conferences (save Davidson). As for the at-larges, I would think Dayton, BYU, and St. Mary's are good enough to make the tourney without winning their conference. Teams on the bubble are hoping that these teams win their leagues because this is where you usually find your bubble busters year-in and year-out.

Any thoughts???

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