2012 NBA Free Agents: Predicting Destinations for 5 Best PGs Available
The 2012 NBA free-agent pool isn't as deep this summer as it has been in recent offseasons, but one position where the talent looks well-stocked is at point guard. Several difference-making distributors are available, and the big fish on the market is All-Star floor general Deron Williams.
Below, we predict the eventual destinations for the top five point guards this offseason.
Deron Williams
Vitals: 6'3'', 209 lbs.
Age: 27 years old
2011-12 averages: 21.0 points, 8.7 assists, 1.2 steals
All along, Williams has made it clear that he wants whatever deal he signs done by the Olympics, which start at the end of July. That gives the dynamic distributor plenty of time to ultimately decide between re-signing with the Brooklyn Nets, bolting for the hometown Dallas Mavericks or finding another team with enough cap room to fit him in.
As we sneak past the mid-way point of May, there doesn't appear to be a clear favorite for Williams.
The Mavs have been positioning their salary cap for a run on free agents this summer with Williams thought of as the center piece of the eventual shopping spree. But the Nets have their own leverage points, and Williams even made the trip to Eastern Europe to visit with Nets ownership in Istanbul last week.
When push comes to shove, I expect the Mavericks to present the best overall package for Williams. The money will be there, and the opportunity to go home and play alongside Dirk Nowitzki's final push for another NBA title will be too much to pass up.
Destination: Dallas Mavericks
Steve Nash
Vitals: 6'3", 178 lbs.
Age: 38 years old
2011-12 averages: 12.5 points, 10.7 assists, 3.0 rebounds
Sometime this summer, Nash will have to decide whether or not making a respectable salary with respect to his skill set overrides his need to play on a contending team.
If the money is important, you can all but rule out the cap-strapped Miami Heat. In that scenario, Nash could easily go back to Phoenix—the team he's played with the last eight seasons—for a nice chunk of change. The Suns are reportedly ready to offer Nash a two-year, $20 million deal.
But if playing for a contender wins out—and I suspect it will—Nash should have options at a much lower salary. The Heat might be the most attractive option, but Nash would likely have to accept the veteran's minimum. The New York Knicks (mentoring Jeremy Lin, if re-signed) and Portland Trail Blazers (NBA city most near Nash's hometown of Vancouver) also make sense for Nash.
My best guess right now is that Nash lands with the Heat. If the two-time MVP truly wants a shot at winning a title, there's no better place for him to take his talents.
Destination: Miami Heat
Jeremy Lin
Vitals: 6'3", 200 lbs.
Age: 23 years old
2011-12 averages: 14.6 points, 6.2 assists, 1.6 steals
You have likely been living in a cave if the Jeremy Lin story is new to you, so I won't waste your time on the details. All you need to really know is that Lin helped energize a Knicks team that desperately needed the spark when he was inserted into the starting lineup in the first half of the 2011-12 season.
While Lin is still an unfinished product as a starting-caliber NBA point guard (he turns the ball over too much against good defenses and his defense needs work) the Knicks are heavy favorites to retain his services for no other reason than he's a restricted free agent. Any other interested team would have to overload a contract for the Knicks to consider not matching.
I don't doubt that such a team may exist this summer, but the Knicks should do what they can to keep Lin on the roster even if the team somehow gets Nash away from Phoenix.
Destination: New York Knicks
Vitals: 6'2", 180 lbs.
Age: 34 years old
2011-12 averages: 15.1 points, 3.6 assists, 2.2 three-point FGs
Despite being a mainstay in Dallas for eight seasons, Terry may be forced to look elsewhere in free agency. The Mavs are likely to re-tool their roster and finding a big fish in free agency is high atop their list. When the dust finally settles, there may not be money left in the bank to afford Terry in Dallas.
While he's up there in age, and he's really more of a small shooting guard than a point guard, Terry should field plenty of offers in free agency. He's still an elite long range shooter off the bench and has been extremely durable during his NBA career.
I still think Terry could wind up in Dallas, but I'm banking on the Jet leaving. He could eventually land with a playoff contender, but his market will be wide-reaching. Don't rule out a lower market club making a run.
Destination: Miami Heat or Los Angeles Lakers
Jason Kidd
Vitals: 6'4", 210 lbs.
Age: 39 years old
2011-12 averages: 6.2 points, 5.5 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.7 steals
Kidd is already on the record saying he wants to make at least the mid-level exception this offseason, and if he doesn't get it, he's prepared to retire. That could make things tricky for teams wanting to sign the 39-year-old future Hall of Famer.
Will he have the option of a deal that exceeds the veteran minimum at this stage in his career? Finding a team willing to make such an offer might be unlikely.
Kidd's best bet—regardless of whether or not Deron Williams signs in Dallas—is going back to the Mavericks. Whether as a solid backup to Williams or starter in case Williams goes elsewhere, Kidd would likely succeed despite his age.
I won't rule out Kidd retiring, but heading back to the Mavericks on a low-risk, one-year deal is the best option for both sides.
Destination: Dallas Mavericks
