Why Anthony Davis Won't Succeed in the Association

Anthony Davis will likely be the first pick of the NBA Draft on June 28, but the Kentucky product will never match the expectations place upon him in the Association.

It is hard to ignore Davis' success at Kentucky where he looked a man among boys while leading the Wildcats to a national championship.

Davis was so impressive that Jerry Colangelo added him to the 2012 Olympic team pool. He is by no means a lock to make a roster, but with Dwight Howard injured and Chris Bosh's Olympic participation in doubt, it is feasible.

The 19 year old's game is anchored by his NBA ready defense. There is no doubt he will be able to handle himself on the defensive side of the basketball the minute he steps on an NBA court.

Davis' offensive abilities are another story. His shot is questionable at best and the bulk of his points will come off offensive rebounds. Davis is good off the dribble and could be effective off the pick and roll, but it is not a guarantee that these skills will translate in the NBA.

That makes Davis another center with the dreaded "defensively ready but offensive challenged" tag many prospects before him have been labeled with.

Coaches and scouts see the talent and body and think they will be able to coach these players up offensively. It rarely works out, however.

Hasheem Tabeet, Greg Oden and Emeka Okafor are all high lottery picks noted for their defensive prowess who were busts. Of course, Davis does not have Oden's terrible knees and he did not attend UConn, so perhaps he will actually be capable of developing offensively.

Missing from that list are Dwight Howard and Andrew Bogut, two centers drafted with the first overall pick who have gone on to varying success in the Association.  

Howard has become on of the game's elite players while Bogut, when healthy which is not very often, is one of the better centers in the NBA.

Davis is closer to being a more talented Hasheem Tabeet than a less talented Andrew Bogut and that is kind of scary.

In reality, the Bogut comparison is not particularly apt. They are different styles of players. Bogut grew up being a big man and Davis was guard who puberty hit with the force of an avalanche one summer.

Other popular comparisons include Macus Camby, Kevin Garnett and basically every other lanky big man in the NBA. All of these comparisons have merit but are in no way a blueprint for Davis' career.

Davis' professional success will be linked with his situation—if put in the right scenario, he will thrive and in the wrong one, he will flame out.

The Cleveland Cavaliers or Washington Wizards would be ideal spots for Davis. Both teams have point guards who are the face of the franchise in Kyrie Irving and John Wall and big men who could help Davis out in Anderson Varejao in Cleveland and Nene in Washington.

Being selected by the Charlotte Bobcats or New Orleans Hornets would be the kiss of death for Davis' pro prospects. He just does not have what it takes to carry a team.

Unrealistic expectations will be the primary reason Davis does not succeed in the NBA. He will be a nice complimentary piece who will have a solid an NBA career.

Players drafted No. 1 are expected to contribute more than that. Assuming Davis' success in college in going to translate at the next level is foolish.

Davis will not be a bust, but he will never match the expectations a player selected first has in order to be considered successful.