Preakness 2012 Odds: Favorites Not Worth the Betting Money

Now that Bodemeister has officially committed, the Preakness field just got much more intimidating.

The New York Post's Ed Fountaine confirmed on Tuesday that the Kentucky Derby runner-up, trained by five-time Preakness winner Bob Baffert, will be taking part at Pimlico on Saturday. It's bad news for I'll Have Another and the other favorites who saw their chances of glory grow slimmer at the big announcement.

Bodemeister displayed his speed to the world a couple weeks ago at Churchill Downs, and now, on the shorter track at the Preakness, he'll be even more intimidating.

Your betting money may be best spent on him or I'll Have Another. On the other hand, here are the supposed favorites you shouldn't waste your money on at this year's Preakness.

Creative Cause

In a very interesting column on Tuesday, New Jersey Newsroom columnist Tom Valledolmo discusses how to place the right bets for the Preakness, and he writes that unlike the Derby and the Belmont Stakes, a long shot is very unlikely to win at Pimlico because most of the horses who ran the Derby "have already shown their true colors."

Count Creative Cause among those who couldn't contend with the top horses at Churchill Downs and still won't be able to at Pimlico. He finished fifth in the Derby, and according to trainer Mike Harrington, showed sluggishness and a lack of enthusiasm for several days afterward, according to Bettor.com.

Though Harrington said the horse is back in form now, Creative Cause—currently boasting 10/1 odds, according to AllHorseRacing.com—still doesn't have the speed to contend with I'll Have Another and Bodemeister, especially on a shorter track where both favorites will both be even better than they were at the Derby.

Went the Day Well

He may have an excellent trainer in Graham Motion, but that didn't help him in the Derby, where he finished fourth. With Dullahan out of the running at Pimlico, that puts him behind the two front-runners. But on a shorter track that favors early speed, they will still present too much of it to be defeated.

The horse is currently working at the Fair Hill Training Center in the hopes of pulling off a surprise win, like the one fellow Motion trainee Animal Kingdom earned in last year's Kentucky Derby. Motion's horses have a good track record, as 50 percent of them finished in the money in 535 starts last year.

Given his finishing position in the Derby, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Went the Day Well (10/1) earn a spot in the top four at Pimlico, but overcoming Bodemeister's speed seems like too tall a task.

Optimizer

Coming off an 11th-place finish in the Derby, Optimizer is back in action for the Preakness, currently training at Churchill Downs and running a half-mile in 49.8 seconds, according to the Brisnet.com.

But 11th place is way too far back in the field to expect to show at the Preakness. If Optimizer wasn't fast enough to contend at Churchill Downs, how will he find the speed to overcome some of the fastest horses in the field at Pimlico?

Optimizer will leave Churchill Downs for Baltimore on Tuesday and will have the help of trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who's worked with five Preakness winners before. But it will take a major miracle—and possibly some late defections—for 12/1 long shot Optimizer to have a chance.