Preakness 2012: Pristine Weather Conditions Make Bodemeister Favorite at Pimlico

With Weather.com forecasting a high of 77 degrees and no chance of rain at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Md. on Saturday, the 137th Preakness Stakes will almost assuredly be run in perfect conditions. While it's tough to say for sure how that will affect the field, I believe it makes Bodemeister the clear favorite.

Bodemeister and Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another appear to be a cut above the rest in terms of the betting odds, but a tidy track favors Bodemeister. In the Kentucky Derby, Bodemeister shot out to the front and set some blistering splits early on in the race despite that fact that he was running on a fairly sloppy track.

Saddled by Mike Smith and trained by Bob Baffert, Bodemeister has all the elements you look for in a prospective Triple Crown horse. A Triple Crown obviously isn't possible for him now since he tired in the Derby and allowed I'll Have Another to make a late charge, but now Bodemeister can play spoiler moving forward.

It may seem strange to say that Bodemeister was the best horse in the Kentucky Derby since he lost the race, but he was certainly the most impressive and explosive horse in the field. The key will be for Smith to pace Bodemeister better in the second leg of the Triple Crown and I have to believe that it will be easier for him to do that without having to contend with the weather.

As great of a story as it was for I'll Have Another to win the Kentucky Derby, he seemed to be the beneficiary of an unsustainable pace more than anything. Smith, Baffert and Bodemeister won't allow the same mistake to be made again, so I'll Have Another is going to have to unquestionably be the better horse in the Preakness in order to win.

As interesting as poor weather can make a race, true fans are always going to prefer that a race be run in good conditions. Rain in particular causes far too many variables to be brought into play and it often results in things playing out completely differently than they would have otherwise.

The vast majority of fans are likely going to be rooting for I'll Have Another since we haven't seen a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, but I expect the more talented horse to win out. I'll Have Another has been an awesome underdog story to this point, but all signs point to Bodemeister being the horse to beat this time around.

Everything seemed to work in I'll Have Another's favor in the Kentucky Derby as the poor conditions and Bodemeister running out of gas allowed him to make a late run. With the forecast looking great and Bodemeister's jockey now aware of his horse's limitations, though, I'll Have Another simply won't have what it takes to beat the clear favorite in Bodemeister.

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