2012 NBA Mock Draft: NCAA Tournament Stars Certain to Flop at Next Level
While we tend to focus on NBA draft prospects throughout the college basketball season, the analysis really amps up during the NCAA Tournament. All of the best players are able to be seen in one spot, so it is naturally easier to evaluate them against each other.
Plus, looking at the best players against each other will give us a much better read on who is going to turn into a star and who is destined to be a bust.
Here is a look at our latest 2012 NBA mock draft, with a look at NCAA Tournament stars who will turn into flops.
1. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)
Given Davis' defensive prowess, he doesn't have to score a lot to be a great NBA player. Fortunately for the Bobcats, he is going to turn into a 15- to 18-point scorer in two years.
2. Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF (Kentucky)
Arguably the most electric athlete in this draft, Kidd-Gilchrist is the perfect player for the Wizards. He was the second best player for the Wildcats this season but could easily end up being the best professional.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, SG (Florida)
Beal has star potential already, but pair him with Kyrie Irving in the Cleveland backcourt, and he is going to be an All-Star for years to come.
4. New Orleans Hornets: Thomas Robinson, PF (Kansas)
Thomas exploded this season, and his tournament performance—shared with teammate Tyshawn Taylor, who will be a second-round pick—carried the team to the championship game. He does need to get more aggressive with the basketball, but his improved shot makes it easier to see him turning into a star.
5. Sacramento Kings: Andre Drummond, C (Connecticut)
Drummond wasn't exactly a tournament star, or even a factor—just two points in one game—and he is likely going to be one of the biggest busts in this class. He has the size and talent to be great, though he rarely showed it at Connecticut.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (via New Jersey): Kendall Marshall, PG (North Carolina)
Marshall's tournament was cut short due to a fractured wrist, but you could see how important he was to North Carolina after he went down. He is such a strong passer—and sees the floor better than any point guard—that it would be an upset if he didn't turn into a star.
7. Golden State Warriors (from Utah): Harrison Barnes, SF (North Carolina)
Barnes is one of the most puzzling players available in this draft. He came out of high school two years ago with as much hype as any player, but his performance suffered due to a lack of intensity and lack of versatility to his game.
The Warriors could end up being the perfect place for Barnes to land because all they care about is scoring, and Barnes certainly knows how to do that. Given his success at North Carolina, the hype is going to be huge for him as a pro.
Sadly, Barnes is not up to the task of matching his hype. He needs to figure out what kind of player he is going to be before he will be an effective NBA player.
8. Toronto Raptors: Perry Jones III, PF (Baylor)
Another puzzling college player, Jones started to show a lot of potential in Baylor's Elite Eight run. He has the size and athleticism to be a star at either forward position in the NBA. The problems with Jones are all in his head.
Jones tends to let the opposing crowd get into his head, and it completely changes the way that he plays the game. He stops being aggressive with the ball, tries to avoid getting in the middle of the action and makes mistakes on offense and defense.
If you want to believe in the raw talent, it would be hard to argue with that. But there is so much more that goes into being a professional athlete than just talent.
9. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger, PF (Ohio State)
Sullinger's stock climbed a lot this year, though he still has to work on his conditioning. As long as the Pistons don't put too much on his plate right away, he will be an effective starter in the NBA for the next decade.
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota): Damian Lillard, PG (Weber State)
Lillard and Weber State didn't make the NCAA Tournament, but he is a versatile scorer who can give the Hornets the guard they need to replace Chris Paul.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Austin Rivers, SG (Duke)
On name recognition alone, Rivers is probably second to Anthony Davis in this draft. Unfortunately, his inconsistent performance at Duke, including the tournament loss to Lehigh, showed that he has a lot of work to do before he lives up to his pedigree.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Zeller, C (North Carolina)
Zeller is one of the most underrated players in this draft. He isn't going to be a star, but as a body in the paint who can stand toe to toe with anyone and average 10-12 points and 5-7 rebounds, he is worth a late-lottery selection.
13. Phoenix Suns: Jeremy Lamb, SG (Connecticut)
Lamb's NCAA Tournament was brief, though he did show a lot more than teammate Andre Drummond. As long as he uses his speed and ability to drive the lane instead of always settling for perimeter shots, he can give the Suns the young, athletic guard they need.
14. Houston Rockets: Arnett Moultrie, PF (Mississippi State)
If the Bulldogs would have made the tournament, Moultrie's name would be at the top of this list. He is a long, athletic big man who has the touch to shoot the ball from the outside and the body to bang down low.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: John Henson, PF (North Carolina)
Henson had a strong NCAA Tournament, with two double-doubles in three games. The problem is, his body just doesn't project well to the NBA.
Listed as a power forward, Henson certainly has the height (6'10") to play the position, but he lacks the body and muscle to handle himself—he is listed at 210 pounds. That is razor-thin for a big man at this level.
Adding muscle mass is going to be critical to his development, but he doesn't know how that's going to change the way he plays. That assumes he even tries to add bulk to his frame.
16. Houston Rockets (via New York): Terrence Jones, PF (Kentucky)
Jones has the hands and shooting touch of a point guard, which makes him an incredible value at this spot. He was a bit of a disappointment in the tournament, so his stock is based on the regular season and projection.
17. Dallas Mavericks: Dion Waiters, SG (Syracuse)
A shooter this season, Waiters averaged 13 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. He is still trying to find that consistent jump shot that will carry him to the next level. Until he does, he will be a sixth man in the NBA.
Considering that the Mavericks have built a team around old players, Waiters will give them the speed and athleticism that was sorely missed this season.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Utah): Terrence Ross, SG (Washington)
Ross only has one dimension to his game: shooting. But he is great at that and should provide an improving Timberwolves team with a lot more punch in either a starting role or as a weapon off the bench.
19. Orlando Magic: Meyers Leonard, C (Illinois)
Leonard didn't get to showcase his strong defensive prowess in the tournament this year. The Magic won't let that stop them from drafting the player who will serve as Dwight Howard's backup—or possible replacement, depending on what they do this offseason.
20. Denver Nuggets: Quincy Miller, SF (Baylor)
Miller's performance never matched his raw potential. He only scored 27 points in four tournament games, and he has a long way to go before breaking through as the player the tape suggests he could become.
21. Boston Celtics: Doron Lamb, SG (Kentucky)
There may not have been a more consistent performer for the Wildcats during their tournament run than Lamb. He closed the season with 22 points against Kansas. His stock has been climbing ever since. The Celtics need all the young scoring they can get.
22. Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers): Royce White, SF (Iowa State)
Speaking of scorers, White was one of the best in the country, including 38 total points in two tournament games. On merit alone, he should be a lottery pick. No player with that kind of performance should make it past No. 15.
Unlike most players whose stock drops based mainly on performance, White's is going to be hurt because of social anxiety issues. That is a problem no team can magically cure; you just have to hope he seeks the proper treatment and everything works out.
The talent is too great for White to not be taken in the first round, but the red flags will keep him from ever reaching his full potential.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Tony Wroten, Jr., PG (Washington)
Wroten's immature attitude and selfish play are not going to make him a fixture in the NBA for very long.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Los Angeles Lakers): Andrew Nicholson, PF (St. Bonaventure)
St. Bonaventure made a surprise run to the NCAA Tournament. Nicholson was the key cog in the Bonnies' success, showing an improved post presence as well as stellar defense. His offense lags behind his defense, but he has the upside of a solid starter in the NBA.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Moe Harkless, PF (St. John's)
St. John's didn't do enough to let Harkless showcase his ability to score and play defense, but the Grizzlies will be more than happy to pry him off the heap with the 25th pick.
26. Indiana Pacers: Marquis Teague, PG (Kentucky)
Of all the players in the first round, Teague is going to be the one the Pacers are keeping a close eye on. He grew up in Indiana and would fulfill their need to get a point guard who can run an offense and shoot the ball.
27. Miami Heat: Draymond Green, PF (Michigan State)
Green's four years at school and outstanding tournament performance—prior to the Louisville game, at least—will only solidify his spot as a late first-round pick. He doesn't have one outstanding skill, though he will bring leadership and underrated athleticism to South Beach.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Fab Melo, C (Syracuse)
Melo is a defensive wizard in the middle, who, despite not playing in the tournament due to eligibility issues, has the size and body teams covet in the paint. He will add depth to the Thunder's already loaded roster.
29. Chicago Bulls: Jeffrey Taylor, SG (Vanderbilt)
Taylor's defensive prowess and incredible athleticism, which he showed off-and-on in the tournament, will make him the player for the Bulls.
30. Golden State Warriors (via San Antonio): Will Barton, SG (Memphis)
As if the Warriors needed another scorer, they will luck out with Barton, who has the talent to be a top-20 pick. His inconsistent shot selection make him a bit of a risk, but this is the best possible landing spot for him.
