UFC 94 Preview: Why GSP vs. BJ Penn Won't Break the UFC PPV Record

So, it's finally here: the mega fight of all mega fights (at least until the next bout that gains public interest). The Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre battles the Lightweight Champion BJ Penn Saturday night—a fight that UFC President Dana White thinks it will be the biggest PPV draw in their history.

While the fight could be an instant classic, it will not break the record for the most PPV buys in company history. Here are a few reasons why:

- The lack of a mainstream hook: If you look at some of the best-selling PPVs in UFC history, they had real characters involved. Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz were a promoter's dream as both have colorful looks, knockout power and can talk the talk to sell a fight.

With Brock Lesnar and Randy Couture, the UFC pushed them hard on ESPN and other media outlets to the point the mainstream buyer had no other reason but to have interest. In all of those cases, the UFC had polarizing characters that got instant reactions which translated into PPV dollars.

For those that follow the sport, we understand what GSP and Penn are all about. We get their backgrounds and what a big deal it is that the two of them are fighting in their primes, but I think the UFC has failed to push that message on the mainstream like they did so effectively with Lesnar and Couture.

While both men are strong characters with interesting personalities, their current standing in the game isn't going to be enough for Joe Public to commit $40-$50 to buy Saturday's event.

- The Super Bowl effect: Even with the lack of buzz for the Super Bowl this year due to two teams without a national storyline hook, the majority of the sports media still have their eyes focused on Miami. If this had been a week from now, things might be different. But putting any major event on Super Bowl weekend is a tough draw, even for an organization like the UFC. People are focused on Sunday's parties, not Saturday night. The sheep are being led toward a different patch of grass, nowhere near the octagon.

- UFC Primetime fell flat: The show started out with so much promise, but I thought it really fell off after the first episode. What could have been an amazing sell job with the white hat vs. the black hat evaporated. Maybe it was how upset Penn was after seeing how he was portrayed, but that's part of selling PPVs.

The second and third episodes seemed like a higher-end version of UFC Countdown and didn't hold a candle to HBO's 24/7. Considering how Primetime was hyped up, I was really disappointed in the body of work and the ability to reach out and demand you buy this.

Having said all that, I still think this will do 650k buys, ahead of what UFC 87 did (GSP vs. Fitch, Lesnar vs. Herring) and among the best numbers UFC has ever done. But due to the timing of the event, the economy and Primetime not fully carrying out its immense promise, GSP vs. Penn will do good numbers, just not great numbers.

Let's get down to the main event itself...

> On Georges St. Pierre (19-2):

It's amazing to think that the man from Montreal has fought 22 times and has only lost twice. The 27-year-old has spent 75% of his career in the octagon, mostly dancing with and around the Welterweight title. His first loss came in October 2004 at UFC 50, a submission loss to Matt Serra for the vacant gold.

Two years later, he defeated future Hall-of-Famer Matt Hughes via strikes at UFC 65 to win the title for the first time. That reign ended at the hands of Serra, who shocked the world by pounding GSP in a first-round upset at UFC 69.

Since that point, GSP's career has been running on high-speed fiberoptics. After downing Josh Koscheck at UFC 74, GSP regained the Welterweight gold by submitting Hughes with an second round armbar at UFC 79 in December 2007. He then avenged his two losses to Serra by TKO'ing the New York mouth at UFC 83. After taking a unanimous decision over Jon Fitch at UFC 87 last August, that brings us to Saturday night.

> On BJ Penn (13-4-1):

Penn is the UFC's reigning Lightweight Champion, having won the title just over a year ago. Like GSP, he's been in the UFC for 75% of his career and is one of only two fighters to have won titles in two weight classes (Couture). All in all, not too bad for a 30-year-old that only has 18 career fights to his name.

His pro career began at UFC 31 with a TKO win over Joey Gilbert in May 2001. He lost his first attempt at Lightweight gold with a unanimous decision loss to Jens Pulver at UFC 31, then drew with Caol Uno in a Lightweight title bout at UFC 41 in February 2003.

He finally broke through with a Welterweight title victory over Matt Hughes at UFC 46, but was stripped of the belt after he signed with K-1. He would return to the organization and suffered a loss to GSP in a Welterweight No. 1 contender's match (more on this in a minute).

After GSP had to pull out of that match due to injury, Penn replaced him in a rematch with Hughes which Penn lost that night via TKO.

After avenging his loss to Pulver, he won the Lightweight title by bloodying Joe Stevenson at UFC 80 and successfully defended the gold against Sean Sherk with a third round TKO at UFC 84 last May. But on Saturday night, the Welterweight title will be his focus again in a much-anticipated battle against his rival.

> Breakdown:

As mentioned earlier, these two have fought once before. Back in March 2006, the two battled at UFC 58 in Las Vegas for the No. 1 contender's position to then-Welterweight Champion Hughes. GSP won a split decision that night, but Penn would later get the shot after GSP injured himself.

Penn is a BJJ machine that loves the rear-naked choke submission but can lay the leather as well. He isn't a fighter that ends things in the first round, but takes his time in evaluating an opponent and tightens the rope in the second and third rounds. A big question is whether the 15-pound jump in weight from 155 to 170 will affect his power and conditioning, especially at 30 years of age. He is also several inches shorter than GSP.

St. Pierre is also well-rounded in BJJ, but has finished opponents in a variety of ways with each of his three last victories ending differently. He is white-hot, having won his last four fights and along with Anderson Silva and Fedor Emelianenko, he is regarded as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Both men are well-rested and are not coming off any major injuries.

There is a variety of ways this could end and all of them can be argued for. But we think the height and weight advantages for GSP are going to be too much for Penn to overcome and that the scales will tip in his favor midway through the fight. It will be memorable and exciting and the younger GSP will emerge victorious.

RRC Prediction: GSP via fourth round TKO (strikes)

Josh Nason - josh [at] ropesringandcage [dot com] - has published MMA, wrestling and boxing blog Ropes, Ring and Cage.com since 2007. If you are using any content or recapping from this site, please include a link to www.ropesringandcage.com. Thank you for your support!