Weekly NFL Picks: Super Bowl XLIII

The biggest day in sports is finally here and the Arizona Cardinals are prominently involved.

Who would have guessed it?

On the other side of the ledger is the AFC champion Pittsburgh Steelers, sitting pretty with a quarterback who already has one Super Bowl ring, a young coach and a revived running game.

But don't the Cardinals have the same thing?

Yes, the Steelers have the stout defense, which has been called everything from tough to historically unbeatable.

Will defense lead the Steelers to their record-breaking sixth Super Bowl victory? Or will the Cardinals tally one more upset to win their first trip to the biggest game of the year?

Let's get to the pick.

Super Bowl XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) v. Arizona Cardinals (12-7)

For the last two weeks, all we've heard about is Pittsburgh's defense and Arizona's offense. Let's take a look at both units.

To call the Steelers historically prominent is a bit irresponsible. The Baltimore Ravens' defense allowed only 18 more yards—or just more than one yard per game—on the ground this season than the Steelers defensive unit did. Pittsburgh forced 29 turnovers, fewer than eight other teams, including the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets...and Arizona Cardinals.

Arizona's offense has drawn comparisons to another Kurt Warner-led unit, the St. Louis Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf." Those comparisons are also a bit irresponsible.

While the Cards' offense is surely nothing to scoff at, St. Louis had all-world running back Marshall Faulk to run the ball and make plays in the passing game while coming out of the backfield. Arizona's Edgerrin James has been making plays this postseason but did not do the same during the regular season.

The battle which will decide this year's Super Bowl champion is not the 'Zona offense-Steelers defense matchup, but is in fact the struggle between the Pittsburgh offense and the Arizona defense.

There is always a particular key that is overlooked in deciding each Super Bowl winner. Last year, it was the battle between New York's defensive line and New England's offensive line. The Giants won that battle and won the game.

This year's big game will boast a similar battle. Arizona's defense has been blitzing effectively throughout the playoffs and will look to do the same against a Steelers offensive line that has struggled at times this year.

If the Steelers manage the blitz and give Ben Roethlisberger time in the pocket, the advantage goes to Pittsburgh. But if Arizona blitzes effectively and Roethlisberger puts on a show like he did in Super Bowl XL, a game which he finished with a Rex Grossman-like 22.6 QB rating, the Steelers will be in trouble.

Hines Ward swears he will be fine once kickoff rolls around Sunday evening in Tampa. But is his definition of fine going to allow him to play at the level he needs to help his team win another world championship?

Pittsburgh showed their struggles with the blitz in their AFC Championship Game win over the Ravens. Roethlisberger couldn't complete half of his passes against a Ravens secondary that seemed to have more injured players (including starters Chris McAllister and Samari Rolle) than healthy ones. The Ravens sacked Roethlisberger four times and, were it not for one huge pass play, would have kept the Steelers offense out of the end zone.

The Steelers defense benefited from rookie Joe Flacco's abysmal showing, which included three interceptions. Warner and Flacco couldn't be more different, though.

In the end, it will come down to Arizona's ability to fluster Roethlisberger bottle the run. They shut down two of the league's best rushing attacks this postseason and look to do the same Sunday night.

Can Ben Roethlisberger beat the Cardinals' blitzing, opportunistic defense on his own?

Can Kurt Warner continue his solid play, attacking blitzing defenses and making intelligent decisions along the way?

Will the Cardinals abandon the run game against the league's top rush defense?

Will Hines Ward be healthy enough to make an impact?

All of these questions will be answered at Raymond James Stadium Sunday night. But until that time, The Pick provides the answer.

The Pick: Arizona 30, Pittsburgh 26.

Last week: 2-0

Playoff record: 6-4

Overall record: 168-95-1