2012 NBA Draft Prediction: Why Is Jared Sullinger Falling Down the Draft Board?

Jared Sullinger, like so many draft prospects, is a human/object lesson in "don't stay in school." He waited a year, and now he is plummeting down the lotto rankings. Chard Ford's ESPN board has the skilled Ohio St. power forward ranked No. 9, and Jonathan Givony (who actually praises Sullinger's potential quite frequently) has the kid slated at No. 14 on his Draft Express board. 

What gives?

It would appear that "Sully" is losing out to the gleam of potential. As we get closer to draft day, GMs are becoming increasingly enamored with flashy, unpredictable prospects. Small-schooler Damian Lillard has rocketed up boards after signing with power agent Aaron Goodwin. Arnett Moultrie of Mississippi St. has also made a leap. 

Better-known prospects like Austin Rivers and Kendall Marshall have also made their pushes. Rivers did not live up to his hype at Duke, but he still retains enough hype to perhaps vault into the lottery. Marshall is confounding as a "pass-only" guard, but optimistic GMs are pegging him as "Rajon Rondo" instead of "Marcus Williams." 

As GMs go for the home run in the draft gold rush (mixing my metaphors there), slow and steady loses out. I personally think Sullinger should go much higher than No. 14 or No. 9, based on college stats that resemble Kevin Love's. But it's hard for a marginally athletic, undersized big to get much love in the "strike-it-rich" atmosphere that pervades draft discussion.