Preakness 2012 Predictions: Why I'll Have Another Will Fail in Second Race

Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another’s Cinderella story began and ended at Churchill Downs. He is not built to win in Baltimore at the Preakness Stakes on May 19. 

The 15-1 underdog shocked the horse racing world on May 5. But the field and the track at the Preakness Stakes present challenges he won’t be able to overcome.

I’ll Have Another needed every bit of the one-and-a-quarter mile the Derby track provided to catch and beat Bodemeister. This is a luxury he won’t have at the Preakness Stakes.

The track is only one-and-three-sixteenths miles long. That equates to almost an entire furlong less than the Derby.

Without that extra distance, I’ll Have Another wouldn’t have caught Bodemeister at the Kentucky Derby.

I’m taking nothing away from the outstanding race the horse and his jockey, Mario Gutierrez ran; but distance and horse tendencies are a huge factor in predicting the outcome of a race.

I’ll Have Another is a strong closer, but a horse like that needs time to make his move. Against a fast starter like Bodemeister, a closer may not get the opportunity to hit his stride.

At the Preakness Stakes, the sprinters are the best bets to shine.

I’ll Have Another will have another shot at winning another jewel of the Triple Crown when the top three-year-olds head to New York for the Belmont Stakes, in a little over a month.

The Belmont is the longest of the three races at a marathon-like one-and-a-half mile.

There he’ll have ample time to make his move and capture two-thirds of the coveted Triple Crown. 

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