I'll Have Another: Why Derby Winner Is Doomed at 2012 Preakness

The chances of there being a Triple Crown for 2012 were over as soon as I'll Have Another passed Bodemeister on the homestretch of the Kentucky Derby and took home the win. 

The winner of the Kentucky Derby is ill-suited to win at the Preakness. This much was obvious in the way he won the Kentucky Derby. 

I'll Have Another showcased nice closing speed, but it was far from elite. Bodemeister was fading fast, and I'll Have Another didn't overtake him until the final leg. 

The Preakness is the shortest of the three Triple Crown legs. Granted, at a a mile-and-three-sixteenths it is only slightly shorter than the mile-and-a-quarter Kentucky Derby, but that last stretch would have been enough to keep I'll Have Another from winning the Derby. 

While you can argue that the fact he didn't overtake Bodemeister until the very end was a bit of strategic maneuvering, and that he can simply begin his final charge a little earlier, this still won't be enough to propel him to victory at the Preakness.

This colt simply does not have the speed to win a shorter race. His strengths are in his stamina and his ability to navigate the large,. 20-horse field in the Derby.

Both of these points will be moot at the Preakness. This race will have a much smaller field, putting even a greater emphasis on speed.

And I'll Have Another simply does not have the pure speed to win.