Preakness 2012: Pace Will Be Too Much for I'll Have Another

I'll Have Another had just enough track to catch Bodemeister in the 2012 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

He came from nowhere, a post in which no horse had ever won the Derby from before, and edged out the near gate-to-winner Bodemeister in an instant classic.

If he expects to run that way at Pimlico in the 137th running of the Preakness, he won't have a chance to run for the Triple Crown at Belmont—the pace will be too fast.

The pace set in the Derby was nearly suicidal, and the fact that Bodemeister held on as long as he did was beyond impressive.

The Preakness distance at Pimlico is one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby distance at Churchill Downs.

Having "just enough track" won't be enough in this race—not if I'll Have Another is coming from behind.

On top of that, the Preakness is a smaller field where favored horses typically fair better. Unlike the Derby, where anything can happen with as many as 20 horses in the field, the Preakness tends to be won by the more talented horses.

That doesn't mean we should write off I'll Have Another altogether, he could certainly make a late charge into the money, but he has to change the way he ran if he wants to win the second leg of the Triple Crown.

A year ago, we saw Shackleford run just off the pace to win after finishing fourth at the Derby two weeks prior.

It wouldn't be surprising at all to see another speedy horse potentially run gate-to-wire for the win.