Is the NFC South Headed for a Decline in '09?

The "NASCAR Division" was the best in the NFL in 2008.

Its teams finished with 40 wins, two more than any other conference.

In the past, the NFC South has epitomized the idea of parity in the NFL. The notorious worst-to-first streak ended in '08, but not without a little drama.

Division champs Carolina needed an amazing catch from Steve Smith and a six-seconds-left field goal to defeat the New Orleans Saints.

Meanwhile, about 450 miles northeast, back in Atlanta, the Falcons were busy mounting a comeback of their own against the St. Louis Rams.

It proved to be some of the most exciting 11 minutes of play in the division all season as both teams mounted comebacks in pursuit of the division championship.

But judging by the way the season ended, and the way the offseason has gone so far, few signs point to a dominating division next year and the parity may be on its way out the door.

The Atlanta Falcons have much to feel good about as they've begun a quiet offseason, following a surprising 11-5 record.

The Tampa Bay Bucs? Well they've got a new coach, and boy is he green.

The Carolina Panthers have quite a bit of coaching upheaval of their own, but head coach John Fox has lived to see another season.

The New Orleans Saints are bringing in another defensive coordinator to help improve a defense that has statistically been among the worst in the last few years.

These are just some of the issues surrounding these teams. Atlanta certainly has its needs to address, but piggy-backing on the success of this season may not be so difficult.

A close look at each team in the NFC South proves that the descent is coming and Atlanta may be primed for a division title in 2009.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Glazer family hope they have caught Tomlin-like lightening in a bottle with the promotion of new head coach Raheem Morris.

The 32-year old Morris' enthusiasm for his job is contagious, but his experience is questionable. If you've been reading between the lines of some of the comments from Tampa Bay players after the firing, it sounds as if they're happy to see Gruden move along.

Tampa Bay also lost long-time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, the leader of the stalwart defensive presence that has enabled Tampa Bay's success in this decade.

Morris has rounded out the top two positions on his staff, hiring Jim Bates to man the defense and recently-fired Boston College head coach Jeff Jagodzinski for the offensive coordinator post.

Bates brings 37 years of experience to Morris' staff and it will likely serve the young coaching staff well. But none of his stops in the NFL produced outstanding results, so it remains to be seen whether this move will improve a defense that clearly declined in the second half of the 2008 season.

As the coordinator in 2006 with the Packers, Jagodzinski's offense was statistically average, ranking 22nd in points scored. He moved on to Boston College the following year where he had two very successful years coaching current-Falcons' quarterback Matt Ryan.

Jagodzinski is a smart, young coach, but his best contribution right away may be his familiarity with Atlanta's quarterback.

One of the major positives heading into the off season for Tampa Bay is their salary cap situation. They're currently $40 million under the cap, and with the release of a few veterans, that number will likely rise.

The money will be needed as they have a number of question marks and decisions to make regarding some key positions and players.

Wide receiver Antonio Bryant and quarterback Jeff Garcia lead a slew of starters that are free agents. Re-signing Bryant will be priority No. 1, but figuring out what to do at the quarterback position has to be priority 1a.

With Gruden's departure, Garcia is certainly more likely to return, but the new regime will possibly want to become more stabilized and younger at that position. The Buccaneers want to find that signal caller that will lead the team for the next 5-7 years.

Who that is remains to be seen. Matt Cassel? A rookie? Derek Anderson? It's unlikely the Bucs will be able to sign a quarterback and turn the offense around as quickly as New Orleans managed to do with Drew Brees in 2006.

The running back position is highly unstable as well, leading many mock drafters to select another first-round running back for the franchise. Carnell Williams was selected just four years ago, but has battled injuries that have kept him off the field following a standout rookie season. He ended 2008 with another injury.

Earnest Graham contributed significantly early last year, after signing a healthy three-year contract extension, but suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 11. At 29, questions may already be asked about his durability and whether he's capable of carrying the load of a feature back.

Backup Warrick Dunn, 34, is a fan favorite, but his output has declined.

The questions at the skill positions are substantial and there is some age on the defense. With a lot of cap flexibility, the Bucs can make some moves, but the locker room chemistry may suffer as a result.

Tampa Bay is quite possibly headed toward a similar decline as the one they experienced down the stretch to close out the 2008 season.

Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers face a daunting task this offseason.

While 2008 was a positive season, that featured a dynamic rushing game and the continued growth of middle linebacker Jon Beason, it ended on a sour note with the Divisional round playoff loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

It wasn't just a loss though. It was a 33-13 drubbing in which quarterback Jake Delhomme seemed to age before fans' eyes and the defense hemorrhaged points in the first half.

It was an awful way to end a season and enter an offseason that will prove to be tricky.

Carolina's $10 million under the salary cap. They have two key free agents that they'd like back: All-Pro tackle Jordan Gross and defensive end Julius Peppers.

Peppers has made it clear he'd like out of Carolina and it may difficult for the Panthers to franchise him and resign Gross.

There will be some releases to free up room, but they also have some role players they'd like to bring back to the squad.

Due to the cap situation, they will not be players in free agency. They could use some infusion of talent in the secondary, yet they will have to wait until the second round of the draft to do anything, having traded away this year's first-rounder in the 2008 draft to get offensive lineman Jeff Otah.

Though they may not want to admit it, there must be concern about Jake Delhomme. At 34 he may not have much left. He seems to rely too much on the athleticism of receiver Steve Smith, too often throwing up balls for him to go get.

The Panther's passing offense ranked in the bottom half of the league last year and if you believe Delhomme's performance in the playoffs is even a little bit of foreshadowing for what is to come, expect a continued decline.

With a less effective passing game, it stands to reason that the running game will be more manageable for opposing defenses.

On defense, how will the loss of Peppers affect the entire team? How much better does his pass rush make every defender?

The Panthers' coaching staff is in makeover-mode, with at least five assistants leaving the team. Head coach John Fox brings in Ron Meeks, former Colts' defensive coordinator, to coach the defense.

John Fox has avoided the hot seat talk for most of his time in Carolina, but if they get off to a rough start, will the rumors begin to fly?

The Panthers have some good young players at key positions, but with little flexibility to improve the team next year and the question marks around the quarterback position and the defense, it is not a stretch to believe Carolina could take a step back next season.

A humiliating playoff loss can damage a team's psyche and the Panthers' toughness at times last season proved to be more of a myth than a reality. It could be tough for them to rebound.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints brought in Gregg Williams to coach a defense that ranked 23rd in total defense in 2008, allowing 339.5 yards per game.

Williams has coached some top-10 defenses in his career, but his stop as the coordinator in Jacksonville last season was not as successful.

He coached a unit that allowed 331 yards per game and 22.9 points per game, the same unit that was a top-10 defense the previous two years under Mike Smith, the current head coach of the Atlanta Falcons.

Either it was a down year for the Jaguars or Williams may not have it anymore. He inherits a team that was torn apart by injuries last season, but has some talent in the likes of defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis and defensive end Will Smith.

The Saints' salary cap situation will make a lot of movement this offseason difficult.

They're currently $4.6 million over the cap with players like wide receiver Devery Henderson, offensive tackle Jon Stinchcomb, and middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma as unrestricted free agents.

Standout receiver Lance Moore is a restricted free agent and they'll likely choose Moore over Henderson in a decision of which wide receiver to bring back to the team. Losing one of them could still damage the potency of the Saints' high-powered offense.

Williams has made it clear that he'd like to bring Vilma, who played every snap on defense last season, back to the team, but a lot of moves will need to be made to free up the space to do that. Retired linebacker Dan Morgan has recently expressed a desire to return to the team, but relying on him is as shaky as his health.

The offense is sound, but it mostly comes from the arm of quarterback Drew Brees. The running game was anemic at times last season. Running back Deuce McAllister is likely done in New Orleans, which leaves Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas to carry the load.

Bush is coming back from another injury-riddled season and questions remain about his durability and ability to serve as a between-the-tackles type of back, which the Saints' offense desperately needs.

Thomas had a solid season last year, but the 24-year old hasn't flashed the consistency to prove whether he's reliable. With the cap room what it is, New Orleans will be unable to do much at this position and will enter next year hoping these two players will stay healthy and make an impact.

If the Saints start slow, will the rumor mill crank up about head coach Sean Payton? Entering his fourth season, he'll be on his second defensive coordinator with a team that has only one winning record to his credit.

Until the Saints can consistently field a defense that is capable of stopping another team, they'll be mired in averageville, despite the numbers the offense is capable of putting on the board.

If Payton's fired, the process for New Orleans will begin all over again.

Atlanta Falcons

All is quiet on the Falcons' front.

Owner Arthur Blank and company like it that way.

It's a nice contrast to what they've dealt with in the past.

It also implies that this team is positioning itself to be dominant in the division for at least a few years to come.

Unlike every other team in the division, the Falcons have stability at the coaching positions. No one's leaving, not this year at least. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey's name was in some head coaching searches, but he was not selected for any of them.

It should come as no surprise, however, that if quarterback Matt Ryan sustains the kind of success he experienced in 2008, Mularkey will be a hot candidate following the 2009 season.

But that's a year away, and the Falcons aren't in the business of worrying about things that aren't in the immediate future.

Atlanta enters the offseason in good shape. They're $20.8 million under the cap (though whatever action they take with Vick's contract will damage that status) and they're likely to gain a little more room with the releasing or restructuring of some veterans.

It remains to be seen how active the Falcons will be in free agency, but the front office showed last season that they're willing to make a splash, as evidenced by the signing of free-agent running back Michael Turner.

Most of the Falcons needs are on the defensive side of the ball. They appear to be one solid defensive acquisition from having a much-improved defense in 2009.

While they have good cap room, they do have a substantial list of free agents that will require some tough decisions.

Linebacker Michael Boley, kicker Michael Koenen, safety Lawyer Milloy, and cornerback Domonique Foxworth headline a list of players who were all contributors to '08's success.

Atlanta has some cap flexibility and is expected to become a desired-destination for free agents looking to win.

Their schedule on paper is formidable next season, but with the experience gained from this past season, they should be prepared to face any challenges.

General Manager Thomas Dimitroff struck gold with his draft success last year and if that trend can continue, they'll get younger and add more depth to a team that is already on the rise.

Every other team in the NFC South has major questions to address in the 2009 off season. A decline in the division's performance is expected and Atlanta has the most to gain from it.

They hope to not only be the class of the NFC South, but also the entire NFC.

This article originally appeared on the Atlanta Falcons Examiner page. To view, go here.