What To Expect for Super Bowl XLIII

Super Bowl Sunday is upon us, and during hype week I've gone from "this isn't as cool as when the Steelers went in 2005" to "YES. YES. SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE SO AWESOME!"

One of my favorite websites for Steeler news - Post Game Heroes - has already done an excellent breakdown of these two teams' matchup from last year, in which the Cardinals beat the Steelers.

I feel that that post serves as a good backdrop, but these are two different teams than they were last year. Arizona has obviously improved, but Pittsburgh has improved in some ways that may not be obvious unless you're a fan. I hope to point out both teams' improvements here.

When the Cardinals have the ball

Last year, teams were successfully able to spread out the Steeler defense and drop little 5-yard passes on them. There was a big dropoff between CBs Bryant McFadden and Ike Taylor and the rest of the corners. Arizona successfully took advantage of that to get the W when these teams met then.

Last year, Deshea Townsend was able to hold his own on most drives, but age played a factor sometimes and a receiver was able to get that extra half-step on him. William Gay was just a rookie and mostly drafted for special teams, so he didn't provide much help in nickel and dime coverage at the time. Couple this with a mostly injured Troy Polamalu at safety, and the Steelers pass defense just wasn't up to snuff.

This year is a whole different ballgame. Deshea Townsend is still listed as the starting right CB on the Steelers depth chart, but Bryant McFadden is seeing more snaps there, and for good reason. He's one of the elite corners in the league, and if the Steelers can't afford to sign or franchise him after his pending free agent period he'll get a big contract somewhere.

Meanwhile, William Gay has really stepped up this year, and after having to be a starting CB for a few games is looking like he could actually be a #2 corner if needed. This guy who was drafted for his special teams play has really made a difference in the pass defense between last year and this year.

Deshea Townsend is still holding his own out there, and since we no longer need him to be a superstar, that's just fine.

Fernando Bryant and Anthony Madison have proven they're capable of coming in when the team needs an extra d-back or when a corner needs some rest and holding their own.

Last but not least, Troy Polamalu is finally healthy and in the midst of a dominant season.

So, in summation: spreading the Steelers out like the Cardinals did last year doesn't work anymore. It will enable them to complete some short passes, sure, but in all likelihood those drives will be ending in field goals instead of touchdowns.

Regardless, I'm predicting a pass-heavy attack from Arizona, as running on the Steelers is really not a viable option. Although a few teams have managed to combine for 100+ rushing yards against Pittsburgh, no individual player has run for more than 100 yards on them all season. The closest was Jamal Lewis with 95 in week 17, when most of the starters were benched for the second half.

Not to say that the Cards won't mix in a run now and again, but it will mostly be to keep the defense honest, not to get big chunks of yards. The Cardinals are going to have to live or die with QB Kurt Warner and the receiving corps. In all likelihood, no matter how good Pittsburgh's pass defense is, eventually there's going to be someone open deep for Warner to throw to. There's no way the Steelers keep the Cardinals from posting a TD at some point.

Meanwhile, the Steeler defense will win or lose this game for their team. We hear all the time about how quickly Warner releases the ball, which is why the best matchup of the game will be Pittsburgh's front seven vs Arizona's offensive line in pass situations. The Steelers are likely to be rushing four or five all day, and if they can't get to Warner with those four or five, they're in trouble.

Outside linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley really have to play out of their minds here, as they're the main means of generating pass rush for the Steelers. They've been playing well all year, which has earned Harrison the honor of Defensive Player of the Year, and if they can get to Warner at all, they'll significantly help Pittsburgh's chances. One thing is for sure, the matchup that decides this game is Arizona's pass protection and Warner's quick release vs Pittsburgh's blitz packages.

When the Steelers have the ball

Arizona's game plan on defense is likely going to be the same as it has been all year: keep 'em guessing. As many have pointed out, it's hard to tell when Arizona will blitz and when they'll drop back 8 for pass coverage. This has caused mass confusion among offenses this postseason, which is something the Steelers are vulnerable to on offense.

Like last year's matchup, Pittsburgh's offensive line will struggle against DT Darnell Dockett. Especialy with starting left tackle Marvel Smith on IR and Max Starks - a much slower player - taking his place, this will be the main struggle for Pittsburgh's offense.

Unlike last year's matchup, however, Sean Mahan has been replaced at center with Justin Hartwig and (due to injury) Kendall Simmons has been replaced at right guard by Darnell Stapleton.

Hartwig is an average center at best, but he's leaps and bounds above Mahan and isn't likely to get pushed into a pulling guard's path like Mahan did so many times in last year's game. That alone should be a big help to the Steelers, as they won't have to devote a guard to double-teaming the middle of the line.

Stapleton, in reality, is probably a better player than Kendall Simmons was. You hate to see him take a guy's job because of injury, but he's played this year better than Simmons did last year and the time he spent un-injured this year, and he'll likely get the starting slot at RG next year.

To counteract the threat from Arizona's pass rush, look for plenty of pulling guards to help out with blitz pickup and a few short passes to tame the blitz. The mainstream media still identifies the Steelers as a power running team, but they haven't been that since 2005. Look for a pass-first offense on Sunday, with QB Ben Roethlisberger throwing a series of dink-and-dunk passes to calm the Cardinal blitz and hopefully open up some running lanes and some deep balls.

Which brings me to my next point. A storyline we've been hearing a lot during hype week is about Ben Roethlisberger looking to make up for a bad performance in Super Bowl XL with a better one in Super Bowl XLIII.

If you don't remember Super Bowl XL, after an other-worldly postseason up to that point, Roethlisberger played an awful individual game. Save for a rushing TD, he contributed absolutely nothing of value to the Steelers, going 9/21 for 123 yards and 2 INTs. If Pittsburgh would have lost the game, the finger could have been pointed squarely at Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh's other scores came on a record-setting run by Willie Parker and a pass to Hines Ward - not from Roethlisberger, but from wide receiver Antwaan Randle El.

Ben Roethlisberger will be the first to say in a post-game interview that individual stats aren't important to him as long as his team gets a win, but Roethlisberger is also a competitor at the highest level. Trust me, this "redemption" storyline is more than a storyline...Ben Roethlisberger will be out to silence the critics and prove that he deserves recognition as one of the league's elite QBs. If he's successful, it's going to be a long day for the Arizona defense.

Another important factor is the health of Hines Ward. Ward insists that he will play, and he's even using a hyperbaric oxygen chamber to help his rehab process, which brings about a question that hasn't been asked since the time Michael Jackson used one...what the hell is a hyperbaric oxygen chamber, and how will it actually help?

Will Hines Ward play? I don't think he'd miss it for the world. The question is how effective he'll be. There's no way he's going into this game 100%, but a Hines Ward at 80% or better is better than no Hines Ward at all.

Santonio Holmes is probably capable of being Pittsburgh's #1 receiver, but beyond that the Steelers have some serious problems when you start moving receivers around on the depth chart.

Nate Washington has been great this year as a #3 man, but that's the extent of his talent at this point in his career, and Limas Sweed has yet to prove himself capable of even being a #4 receiver.

Even with Ward in the game, look for Roethlisberger to target other receivers more. Ward is the man Big Ben goes to when he wants to move the chains, and that will likely still be the case, but in between those scenarios we'll probably see a lot more balls targeted at Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller and Nate Washington. If those players are able to step up their game a little bit, Ward's injury becomes a non-factor, but if they can't, suddenly Ward's injury could swing the game.

So, now you have my opinion of what to expect Sunday. Get your popcorn, folks, this is going to be a good game.

Oh, and go Steelers.