The Ultimate Super Bowl XLIII Preview: Key Stats, Keys to Winning, and Much More

Let me be the first to remind you that the Super Bowl is Sunday.

The Arizona Cinderella Cardinals continue their run to the championship, after a 9-7 season in which they finished the year on a 2-4 stretch. The Pittsburgh Steelers are seven-point favorites, their No. 1-ranked defense providing strong reason for their case as winners.

Here are key notes, tips, and analyses of Super Bowl XLIII. Because you can't get enough Super Bowl coverage.

Key Stats

•   A new rushing attack? Arizona's yards per carry in the playoffs is 3.33, much less than their 3.60 in the regular season. The difference is that Arizona is rushing 33 times per game, 14 more than their regular season average of 19 per game.

•   Since 1991, of the 12 Super Bowl games with a spread of seven or greater, favorites have won nine games and are 4-6-2 against the spread, with an average score of 29-21; the over/under in games since '91 is 4-4 when 47 or less points are predicted.

•   After allowing 156 rushing yards in their last five regular season games, the Cardinals are giving up just 77 yards per game in the playoffs, more than half of that 156.

•   Arizona outscored opponents by just one point and had a turnover differential of exactly zero in the regular season; in the playoffs, they are winning by 11 points per game and have a turnover differential of plus-three per game.

•   The team with the better turnover differential in this year's playoffs has won eight of nine games; the San Diego Chargers beat the Indianapolis Colts after a minus-two differential, and the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Minnesota Vikings after each team had two turnovers.

•   Pittsburgh wasn't much better than the Cardinals. The Steelers had just four more takeaways than turnovers all year, before reaching a total turnover differential of plus-five in the playoffs.

•   Since 2000, the team with more points scored in the regular season won three of seven games; the team will less points allowed in the regular season won five of seven games. (In two separate games, both teams had the same number of points scored or points allowed in the regular season.)

•   The Cardinals outscored the Steelers by five points per game, and the Steelers allowed 12.7 less points per game than the Cardinals.

Key Matchups

When Arizona has the ball...

Kurt Warner vs. Troy Polamalu

The pundits are saying that it is essential for the Steelers to blitz, and blitz often. Yet, Warner has been the best against the blitz on the year, throwing for 1,548 yards on 197 attempts (127 completions) with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, a passer rating of 103.8.

Warner knows when and how to get the ball away during a blitz: According to this website, Warner went 9-for-10 for 97 yards with less than two seconds to throw, and 11-for-19 for 182 yards and two sacks in all other situations.

The Steelers cannot blitz too often; Warner knows what to do. Instead, they must drop back into coverage more often than not and be aware of when to and from where to blitz. Pittsburgh needs to let Troy Polamalu take care of the short, middle routes, and check downs (Warner was 20-for-21 when throwing the ball 10 yards or less and one-for-eight in all other attempts against Philadelphia).

With Polamalu covering the short routes, the Steelers have their choice of when to blitz him. Polamalu will be near the line on each and every play, his distance to Warner will not be as much as if he were in his normal position, and Warner will have a significantly tougher time deciphering when Polamalu will blitz. When he is rushing the passer, Pittsburgh can single-cover Larry Fitzgerald and put another man in the middle or in position to cover the running back.

In this defensive formation, Warner will not have time to throw to Fitzgerald, who is single-covered, and must throw to Anquan Boldin in the middle or Tim Hightower or Edgerrin James in the flat, and each of them will be covered by the man taking over for Polamalu.

Using Polamalu as bait for Warner to throw to the flat could provide Pittsburgh with key stops, especially if the Cardinals are faced with third-and-short.

When Pittsburgh has the ball...

Heath Miller vs. Adrian Wilson

The will-he-or-won't-he with Hines Ward may be getting more coverage than the Super Bowl itself.

I'm kidding, of course, but Ward's injury has been as scrutinized as Tom Brady's walking boot last year. Even Ward says his injury is a mystery to him ("I've never really had to deal with this specific injury"), so don't expect him to be his old self this Sunday.

Santionio Holmes will continue in his roll of the speedy, break-a-long-one receiver, so in Ward's place as possession wide out is tight end Heath Miller.

In his last four games, Miller's averaged five catches for 56 yards, and he also caught a touchdown in the Divisional round against San Diego. Miller has caught 73 percent of the 74 passes thrown to him on the year, more than guys such as Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Dallas Clark, among others.

In comparison, Holmes and Nate Washington have caught 46 percent and 52 percent of their targets, respectively, and Ward has a catch percentage of 66 on the year.
Miller is as big of a possession guy as anyone. It's Adrian Wilson's job to cover him.

Last week, Wilson had seven tackles, two sacks, and a forced fumble, but the Cardinals allowed Eagles' tight end Brent Celek to catch 10 balls for 83 yards and two touchdowns.

Arizona is addicted to blitzing Wilson and leaving the middle open, and that hole was exploited last week. The Steelers have had two weeks to plan against the safety blitz, and if the Cardinals don't change their ways, they'll be beat down the middle by Miller all day.

Yes, Arizona can have Wilson blitzing and have free safety Antrel Rolle cover Miller, but in that scenario, no one is back guarding the deep ball, a problem worsened by Holmes' and Washington's speed.

In the end, Wilson must be able to play defense and cover Miller. Thirty of Miller's 48 catches have come on passes thrown less than 10 yards ahead of the line of scrimmage, and Wilson must be aware of this. If all goes as planned, Arizona can establish Wilson as the Steelers should do with Polamalu, and that is let him cover the short routes and blitz him unexpectedly.

Keys to Winning

For Arizona...

1.   Establish a ground game

Arizona is 6-1 when rushing for more than 100 yards and 10-1 when rushing for more than 60 yards. They are 7-1 when Edgerrin James rushes 10 or more times.
Obviously, the Cards must mix up their play calling in order to win (they are also 7-1 when rushing for more than 40 percent of the time, and 11-2 at more than 30 percent).

Pittsburgh's run defense is regularly called tough and stout, but as the season wore on, their play went down. The Steelers' opponents gained, on average, just 66.5 rushing yards in the first 12 weeks, but have averaged 91.4 since then.

Arizona must start out the game pounding the ball as they did in the Wild-card round against the Atlanta Falcons. Doing so will slow down the Pittsburgh pass rush and their blitz.

2.   Pressure Ben Roethlisberger

Just how important is Roethlisberger to Pittsburgh's success? The Steelers are 0-3 when Big Ben throws more than one interception, and 13-1 when he throws one or less.

That's the Steelers' biggest weakness, and everyone knows it.

Roethlisberger had a 53.6 completion percentage and a quarterback rating of 70.3 against the blitz, and 63.5 completions percentage and a 85.6 rating against all other defenses. He was sacked in 28 of 196 drop backs (attempts plus sacks plus runs) against the blitz, a 14.2 percent sack rate, but in only 18 of 353 drop backs in all other situations, a five-percent sack rate.

Arizona must blitz Roethlisberger, but not largely on safety blitz as I asserted above; the Steelers realize the Cardinals tendency to blitz Adrian Wilson in blitz situations, so the Cardinals will have to rely on their front seven, lead by Karlos Dansby and Bertrand Berry, to put pressure on Roethlisberger and force a turnover or interception.

3.   Rely on short, quick, West-Coast-ish passes to maintain a quick pace

Larry Fitzgerald has a catch of 40 yards or more in each of the past five games, but with Troy Polamalu lurking around, you can never assume a long reception.

On their first possession, Arizona must play as if they are in a two-minute offense, throwing quick, 10-yard passes (with runs mixed in). The Cardinals must set an up-tempo pace. This will make the Steelers unable to put pressure on Warner, knowing that he'd get the ball off before a blitzer arrives.

They know that the Steelers cannot compete with them on the offensive side of the ball, and Arizona must hope for a shootout—that is their only chance of competing in this game.

If it turns into an old-school, time-of-possession battle that is the Steelers' specialty, Arizona can say goodbye to their Super Bowl chances.

For Pittsburgh...

1.   Make Anquan Boldin beat them
Pittsburgh must double-team Larry Fitzgerald and keep him under 100 yards. They must make Anquan Boldin beat them—and, more specifically, Troy Polamalu—down the middle.

Boldin has not performed well against tough competition; he's averaged only 54.4 yards per game against teams in the top half of the league in pass defense (and 96.9 against all other teams). Granted, such conditions only included five games, but even K.C. Joyner agreed that he did poorly against top teams.

Boldin's specialty is a six-seven yard pass to the middle or left side of the field that he runs for eight or nine yards. (See his situational splits with yards-after-catch numbers.)

And ironically, that's Polamalu's, too. If the Steelers let Polamalu do what I suggested above—defending the short crossing routes down the middle—Boldin will have nowhere to go. Double-teaming Fitzgerald and keeping Boldin in check can go a long way for the Steelers.

2.   Start off the game with many runs

The Steelers must run Willie Parker into the ground at the beginning of the game. Why?

Adrian Wilson won't be able to resist the urge to come in and try to stop the run. If Wilson sees the Steelers running on 10 of their first 12 plays, he and the Cardinals defense will be ready for the run and will not expect the pass.

Ben Roethlisberger will then have one-on-one coverage deep for either Santonio Holmes or Nate Washington. The Steelers could even run a flea-flicker in this situation, replicating the Cardinals' game plan against the Falcons. Moreover, there will be space for Heath Miller to get open and thread the coverage.

The Steelers will want to run this game plan not just at the start of the game, but the entire game. They must keep the Arizona offense off the field and control the ball for the majority of the game.

3.   Force Kurt Warner to make bad decisions

I noted earlier that Warner was the best quarterback against the blitz all year, yet the Steelers must try to pressure him and force turnovers.

By blitzing Warner not too often, the Steelers will cause Warner to make quick decision that may lead to an interception or a fumble. On a blitz, Fitzgerald will have to be single-covered to make up for the lost man. Warner will either try to look for Fitzgerald and force it, or throw it down the middle to Boldin or to the flat to a running back.

Pittsburgh can only hope for a turnover in this situation. But most importantly, they must do what they have done all year long on defense. They were No. 1 in almost every defensive category, so they must not change their ways for one game.

Key Selection: Who Will Win?

Arizona should control the tempo of the game and make the score go into the 30s. The Steelers will not be able to stop Larry Fitzgerald, who will once again gain over 100 yards receiving.

The main aspect of this game will be the turnover battle, as it has been for virtually every game of the playoffs thus far.

Pittsburgh is 13-1 in games with a turnover differential better than or equal to zero, and 1-3 in all other games; the Cardinals are—get this—11-0 in such games, and 1-7 in all other matchups.

Which team will win the turnover battle? The winner, of course.

And the winner will be the Arizona Cardinals, by a score of 31-27.