Kentucky Derby 2012: Why Derby Winner I'll Have Another Won't Win at Preakness

Watching the 2012 Kentucky Derby, it looked like Bodemeister was going to run away with this race up until the final seconds, when I'll Have Another came in at the last second to steal the limelight and etch himself in Derby immortality.

But while the horse gave the Derby audience a fine story to tell, there's no way we see a repeat performance for I'll Have Another at the Preakness.

As soon as the winner of the Derby is announced, talks of the Triple Crown begins, and despite showing impressive speed at the end of horse racing's greatest spectacle, the Preakness is a whole different beast than the race at Churchill Downs.

Bodemeister has the more experienced owner and more experienced jockey, whereas I'll Have Another has only raced in four competitions since September. The Preakness race is also considerably shorter than the Derby, and as anyone who watched the Kentucky race saw, Bodemeister was in the lead for much of the race.

A shorter track lends itself to a victory for horses who have a track record (no pun intended) for bursting out of the gates rather than a last-20-second sprint to the finish line.

While working through a crowd and launching yourself to the No. 1 spot in the race is something to be impressed with for sure, when we're talking about a short race, you want that to happen much earlier in the contest than we saw in Kentucky from I'll Have Another.

Bodemeister showed he has the ability to lead a race for much of the contest, and with a few tweaks from jockey and horse, there's a great chance they take home the victory down in Maryland at the Preakness.

Union Rags is another horse that could create issues for an I'll Have Another victory in the second race of the Triple Crown. While Rags didn't have the best showing at Kentucky, with a sixth-place finish, that will create a great amount of motivation for his owner and jockey to work on a redemption tour for the next race.

There's a reason no horse has won the Triple Crown since 1978—it's not an easy task, and it's difficult for many Derby horses to follow up their victory with another one (again, no pun intended) at the Preakness. If Barbaro, Ferdinand and Animal Kingdom couldn't accomplish the feat, then I'll Have Another doesn't stand a great chance of grabbing the Triple Crown either.