Kentucky Derby 2012 Weather: Waiting to Place Bet Is Smart Move Given Forecast

While it is expected that afternoon heat will dry the track at Churchill Downs for this year's running of the Kentucky Derby, the possibility of thunderstorms remains.

Thus, the possibility of a wet track remains, which could seriously affect the outcome of this race.

This means you might want to fill out your betting slips as late as possible today. Waiting to see how the weather shakes out could be the difference between picking a winner and loser.

For example, two of El Padrino's three wins have been on wet, sloppier tracks. El Padrino is considered a "mudder"—a horse better on a muddy track—and could be an excellent play if the rains return.

And one would think a muddy track would play against the sprinters, like Trinniburg and Hansen, horses that like to gain early edges and hold off the competition.

That could make the race more advantageous for the horses that like to keep things close before finishing strong in the end, namely horses like Dullahan, already highly regarded at 8-1 odds.

Of course, nobody knows how horses will respond to wet conditions. Some horses simply don't like the slop. Would a muddy track distract the more inexperienced horses, namely Bodemeister, who didn't race as a two-year-old?

It's hard to say. What isn't difficult to say, however, is that the bettors among us are best served waiting until the last minute to place their bets this evening.

There are a forecast to watch, late-day reports on how various horses are reacting to the weather to be read and new long shots to consider.

Stay tuned.

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