Kentucky Derby 2012: Why Hansen Will Be This Year's Shackleford

Shackleford didn't win the Kentucky Derby last year, but he finished a surprising fourth before going on to win the Preakness Stakes a few weeks later.

Only one horse can win the 138th "Run for the Roses," but a number of horses could be this year's Shackleford—a loser at Churchill Downs but a winner at Pimlico.

The best bet in this year's field not to win the Derby, but to win the Preakness is Hansen.

Currently going off at 10-1, this three-year-old is going to let Trinniberg set the pace from the ninth post and he'll keep just enough distance so he can have some for the finish.

Hansen breaks from the 14th post, the last one in the initial gate, giving him ample room to maneuver and do as he pleases away from Trinniberg's pace. At the Derby distance, Hansen is more than capable of going gate-to-wire for a win. The problems start if Trinniberg jumps out super fast leaving everyone else chasing.

Contenders running with Hansen from the outside will be undefeated Gemologist and I'll Have Another. Gemologist is going to let the race fall back to him before making his move, and I'll Have Another will do much of the same.

These two horses both have enough juice to sit behind their pace, pick their spots and explode when they need to down the stretch.

If Hansen tries to hard to run with the pace, these closers will certainly catch him.

Unfortunately, this is the more than likely scenario, but Hansen could still run for a money spot. He's talented enough to handle a brisk pace with closing speed, especially if the favorites get caught up inside.

At Preakness, the shortest of the three Triple Crown races, Hansen will have a chance to run from gate-to-wire and seal a victory like Shackleford did a year ago.

Look for Hansen to possibly wind up in the money at Churchill Downs, and don't be surprised if he's the Preakness winner a few weeks later.