Kentucky Derby 2012: Why Gemologist Is Most Dangerous Horse in Talented Field

The Kentucky Derby features a wide-open field where truly any horse can win, but my eye is on Gemologist to dominate on Saturday. 

If you are looking for a gate-to-wire horse, or one that will bring confidence, poise and speed to the track, that has to be Gemologist. 

The three-year old comes in undefeated and trained by the reputable Todd Pletcher, so there is reason to like the horse before digging any deeper. 

The real reason I like him in this particular go at the Kentucky Derby is the personality it will take to maintain the length of the race and the confidence it demands in a field that is just nasty. 

This field is wide-open, a sentiment that can't be stressed enough. A good portion of the favorites such as Union Rags, Bodemeister and Dullahan will be left to duke it out on the inside post as Gemologist is left to his one devices coming out of Gate 15. 

If you are looking for that "it" quality that we often offer to athletes, Gemologist has it. Pletcher is confident that his thoroughbred is going in with a special mindset, via The Columbus Dispatch. 

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You can’t teach that. You either have it or you don’t. It would be hard to be unhappy with anything he has done his whole career. He’s very laid-back, with a terrific disposition. There are no tricks to him. You mark your schedule and he cooperates with everything you want to do.

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You also have to consider that Gemologist is 2-for-2 at Churchill Down, coming in with a winning disposition as well as vital experience for the trying track. 

Much will be made about him not being truly tested, but I see a horse that knows how to win and loves to meet every last challenge. 

He has more than enough speed and is a great pace horse that can cruise faster than most. This is vital coming from the outside, giving him room to assert his claim early. 

If you want an early subplot, consider that he will be motivated early by a speedster in Hansen that is opening next to him in Post 14. 

This will have Gemologist out and running around the other favorites that are left to wear themselves out in the near posts. 

The undefeated horse has speed, power and, most of all, poise. It's going to be a frantic race and this horse never panics, which will serve him well coming into the final push, where I am confident he will be in the lead.

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