Bodemeister: Handicapping Triple-Crown Odds After the Kentucky Derby 2012

The Triple Crown is going to be incredibly difficult to win this year, but if any horse is capable of pulling it off, it’s Bodemeister.

Before I get into the attributes of the horse, it has to be mentioned that Bodemeister is trained by the legendary Bob Baffert, who already owns three Derby wins since 1997. So imagine all of the feel-good story lines that would emerge if Baffert notched yet another win just one month after suffering a heart attack and receiving an emergency coronary stent in Dubai.

Although Bodemeister has no idea Baffert just suffered a heart attack, he is aware of his amazing Arkansas Derby performance—he won by almost 10 lengths. There is no question that is the greatest performance we’ve seen in quite some time, and it’s the main reason Bodemeister is the 4/1 favorite to win the Kentucky Derby.

In a field where we don’t truly have a clear-cut favorite, Bodemeister has emerged as the popular pick. If he wins, is this the year we see a horse win the Triple Crown? It hasn’t happened since Affirmed did it back in 1978, and there have only been 11 horses to complete the task in the history of the sport.

So while the odds aren’t good, there is always a chance.

But remember this quote by the great Baffert when thinking about the Kentucky Derby (and the other Triple Crown races): "It takes 90 percent horse and 10 percent luck to get here, then 90 percent luck and 10 percent horse to win."

Bodemeister’s Odds to Win Kentucky Derby: 4/1

Okay, this one was easy since the oddsmakers did the work for me.

It’s not hard to see why Bodemeister is the favorite. He has been consistently great in his brief career, has one eye-popping win and is trained by the best in the business.

The only reason I wouldn’t put all my chips in his basket tomorrow is if it rains. I'm not sure how Bodemeister will fare in slop conditions.

As long as the rain goes away by the early afternoon and the dirt is dried up, I love Bodemeister’s post position (6) and his chances to take home the win.

Bodemeister’s Preakness Stakes: 20/1

One of the big knocks on Bodemeister is that he didn’t race as a two-year-old. He only has four career races under his belt, so if he’s able to win the Derby, the criticism about his lack of experience will be thrown out the window.

With his speed, I’d assume the odds for Bodemeister would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 2/1 if he wins at the Derby.

But remember, he has to win the Derby first—which is why the current odds are smaller.

Belmont Stakes: 50/1

The buzz surrounding this race is going to be incredible if Bodemeister enters the festivities on a two-race winning streak. It would mean a ton of stuff has gone his way.

To win at Belmont, he’ll need the equivalent of landing on the 100 when spinning on the Price is Right wheel.

It’s going to take another good post position, more good weather and a lack of other strong contenders to emerge…in other words, a ton of luck.  

With such a deep field, this is not the greatest year to make a wager on the Triple Crown, but if there is any horse that can pull off the feat in 2012, it’s Bodemeister.

No horse is faster, better bred or in better condition for the race than Bodemeister, but is that enough?

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