Kentucky Derby 2012: Long Shots to Avoid at All Costs in Marquee Race

The Kentucky Derby is normally a wide-open race because the talent gap between the top horses and the long shots isn't as large as most other races. That said, there are still a couple horses that have virtually no chance of picking up the major victory.

With that in mind, let's take a look at three horses to avoid when you're making picks. It would take a perfect run for any of them to win and there just aren't many of those in a race with 20 horses.

Optimizer

After winning his first career race last year, Optimizer has gone eight straight races without picking up another victory. As the level of competition increased, like in the Arkansas Derby last month, he wasn't able to keep up with the pace.

Optimizer only finished in the money once over his past six races, has finished a distant ninth in two of his past three and hasn't shown any type of momentum in recent months. The signs of him pulling off the upset just aren't there.

As if he needed anything else working against him, Optimizer will start from the second post. Starting on the extreme inside is incredibly difficult—no horse has won from the No. 2 slot since 1978.

Done Talking

Looking only at Done Talking's results would lead you to believe he has serious sleeper potential heading into the derby. He's won three of his six career races and comes off a triumph in the Illinois Derby one month ago.

When you dig a little deeper, however, his résumé isn't as impressive as it looks. He has never raced against the level of competition he'll go up against on Saturday. In his only Grade 2 start, Done Talking didn't finish in the money. He has never been in a Grade 1 race.

That lack of experience against top-notch horses will hurt Done Talking. If he wasn't able to beat weaker opponents on a regular basis, it's hard to imagine him beating an elite field.

Liaison

Liaison won three straight races to end last year that made it seem like he was setting up to become a contender for the derby. It's been downhill in 2012, however, with an sixth-place average finish in his three races this year.

Making matters worse, Liaison will start all the way outside in post No. 20. Only two horses have been able to overcome that poor starting position to win the race. And with most of the main contenders drawing good spots, Liaison will be in a tough spot.

There are certain horses with longer odds that are worth giving a long look, but Liaison isn't one of them. It's disappointing for Bob Baffert, who had him in such good shape last year.